Amidst an intensifying Taliban insurgency and emerging Islamic State threat, Afghanistan's path to peace and stability looks ever more perilous. Taliban militants now control more territory than at any time since its ouster by a U.S.-led coalition in 2001. Crisis Group is one of the few analytical organisations with a presence in Afghanistan. We help local and international stakeholders to comprehend the context and drivers of conflict, militant extremism, political-economic fragility, and its implications for the world and the region. Crisis Group helps local authorities and the international community formulate effective policies to improve governance and security in the country and stop violent extremism.
Talks between the U.S. and the Taliban insurgency are suspended, though an agreement is reportedly ready for signature. The U.S. should resume negotiations and seal the deal, so that a broader peace process in Afghanistan can go forward.
U.S. cancellation of talks with Taliban dealt blow to peace process, while levels of violence remained high, including attacks around 28 Sept presidential election. Hopes for deal between Taliban and U.S. quashed after President Trump in series of surprise tweets 7 Sept cancelled U.S.-Taliban negotiations and secret meeting with Taliban and Afghan govt at Camp David in U.S., citing 5 Sept death of U.S. soldier in Taliban attack in Kabul and doubts over militants’ desire for peace due to their failure to agree to ceasefire. Tweets came day after U.S. Special Envoy Khalilzad and Taliban had completed discussion on draft deal and moved onto details of deal’s announcement; Khalilzad had earlier said in TV interview that agreement “in principal” with Taliban would see drawdown of 5,400 U.S. troops within 135 days of deal’s signing. Insurgent attacks continued; in Kabul, Taliban 2 Sept attacked housing complex used by international security contractors with vehicle packed with explosives followed by gunfight, killing at least 30. Taliban 16 Sept killed U.S. special forces soldier in Wardak province during joint U.S.-Afghan operation against militants; seventeenth U.S. combat fatality in 2019, highest yearly number since 2014. Next day, in election-related violence ahead of 28 Sept presidential election, Taliban suicide bomber attacked campaign rally for President Ghani in Charikar, Parwan province, killing 26; and same day killed at least 22 in suicide attack near U.S. embassy in Kabul, reportedly targeting Afghan military facility. Elections took place 28 Sept; bomb at polling station in mosque in southern city Kandahar wounded sixteen. Election commission reported low turnout from data from half of polling stations; full data and results expected mid-Oct. Amid continued high levels of civilian casualties, local civilians and officials in Nangarhar province 18 Sept reported U.S. drone strike, intended to hit Islamic State-Khorasan Province hideout, mistakenly killed 30 civilians.
The UN General Assembly kicks off on 17 September amid general scepticism about the world body’s effectiveness in an era of rising great-power competition. But the UN is far from paralysed. Here are seven crisis spots where it can make a positive difference for peace.
The end-of-Ramadan truce in Afghanistan was brief but encouraging, demonstrating that both Afghan government soldiers and the Taliban rank and file will respect ceasefire orders from above. Both sides, alongside the U.S., should now seize the opportunity to edge closer to meaningful talks about peace.
The power dispute between President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Officer Abdullah Abdullah is imperilling Afghanistan’s fragile security and recent economic progress. To avoid the collapse of the U.S.-brokered National Unity Government, both actors must end political partisanship and prioritise the public interest.
This report examines President Trump’s emerging counter-terrorism policies, the dilemmas his administration faces in battling ISIS and al-Qaeda across the Middle East and South Asia, and how to avoid deepening the disorder both groups exploit.
Too often, the Afghan Local Police (ALP) has preyed on those it is meant to guard. Some members are outright bandits, exacerbating conflict. Rogue units should be disbanded, and better ones integrated into the armed forces. This must be done carefully and slowly, or else insurgents will win a new military edge.
A U.S.-Taliban deal cannot be a peace agreement because it settles nothing about the dispute within Afghanistan. It only settles the question of the American presence in Afghanistan.
An agreement that is just between the US and the Taliban is not a peace agreement for Afghanistan.
I don’t believe that Pakistan has the capability to straight out make peace happen in Afghanistan, but they definitely have the capability to make peace not [happen].
[Without a solid plan for the US to leave Afghanistan] the inferno of violence that follows might be much worse.
The most fundamental shift in Kabul politics recently has been the muddying of the waters during the presidential candidate nominations.
While the news of a potential U.S. drawdown may be a reason for cautious optimism in the region, [Afghanistan's neighbours] don’t want an abrupt withdrawal.
In this written statement to the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs on 19 September, Crisis Group's Program Director for Asia Laurel Miller assesses the Trump Administration's efforts to secure a peace deal with the Taliban and the potentional risks and rewards of such a deal.
Originally published in U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs
Letting the country unravel isn't an exit strategy.
Originally published in Foreign Policy
This week the Afghan government and Taliban met publicly for the first time – albeit informally – for a peace dialogue. Crisis Group’s Senior Afghanistan Analyst Borhan Osman explains what the talks mean and what may lie ahead.
A return visit to Taliban strongholds in rural Afghanistan reveals that hopes for peace last year’s brief ceasefire sparked have dimmed amid growing violence – despite progress in peace talks.
Talks with the Taliban in the Qatari capital Doha have raised hopes that the U.S. could end its involvement in Afghanistan’s war. Our Asia Program Director Laurel Miller and Afghanistan analysts Borhan Osman and Graeme Smith break down what was achieved and what remains unresolved.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.