Years of deadlock between the two main political parties, the Awami League and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party, have caused governance breakdowns, narrowed political debate, eroded the rule of law and widened social divisions. The continued threat of jihadist violence exacerbates these problems. Meanwhile, Bangladesh struggles to accommodate the presence of an estimated one million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, whose return appears unlikely any time soon. Crisis Group aims to reduce conflict risks, including the spread of militancy, arising from political stagnation; to promote inclusive and accountable democratic institutions; and to urge adequate assistance for the refugees until conditions allow for safe return.
In August 2017, the Myanmar military launched a brutal crackdown on Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine State. Hundreds of thousands fled and are now living in refugee camps in Bangladesh. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Thomas Kean explains why prospects for near-term repatriation remain low.
Upcoming polls remained point of contention between ruling Awami League party and opposition, while inter-religious tensions continued. After opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) vice chairperson late June warned that it “won’t be possible for [ruling Awami League] to hang on to power by rigging votes again”, upcoming general elections due to be held by Dec 2023 dominated political scene during month. Heads of missions representing Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries 3 July met with Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal in preparation for election; Habibul Awal said some political parties had reported they would not take part in polls but he hoped they would reach consensus on remaining issues. FM Masud Bin Momen 4 July emphasised country was on track for “free, fair and participatory” national elections and noted there was “no issue of interference of foreign countries”. BNP Sec Gen Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir 12-13 July held closed-door meetings with UN Resident Coordinator Gwyn Lewis and EU Ambassador Charles Whiteley; Information and Broadcasting Minister Hasan Mahmud 13 July accused BNP of frequently raising domestic issues with foreigners instead of “countrymen”, while Awami League sec gen 18 July rejected BNP’s demand for neutral govt to oversee polls and accused opposition of wanting to capture state power through foreign conspiracies. BNP late month announced nationwide rallies against power shortages. Meanwhile, in suburb of Dhaka, hundreds of locals 1 July attacked home of prominent Professor Ratan Siddiqui, physically assaulting and calling him and his family atheists and Hindus. Chittagong court 4 July sentenced Hindu teacher to eight years in prison for “anti-Islam” remarks in case filed five years ago. In Narial district, local villagers 15 July accused local Hindu boy of blasphemous Facebook post, attacked and burnt Hindu homes and shops, and vandalised Hindu temple, causing many Hindu families to flee village. Paramilitary Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) 3 July arrested convict in Dhaka, who had been sentenced to death in 2018 by controversial International Crimes Tribunal on charges of war crimes during 1971 war of liberation.
Bangladesh is hosting nearly a million Rohingya refugees who have little hope of going home any time soon. The government should move to improve camp living conditions, in particular by lifting the education ban and fighting crime. Donors should support such steps.
Bangladesh and Myanmar have struck a deal for the involuntary repatriation of over 2,000 Rohingya refugees. But the agreement is rushed and threatens stability on both sides of the border. Myanmar and Bangladesh should halt the plan and instead work to create conditions conducive to a safe and dignified return.
More than 700,000 Rohingya refugees from brutal military operations in Myanmar are stuck in Bangladesh, with returns to Myanmar unlikely soon and Bangladeshi goodwill being tested. In Myanmar, international partners must be allowed access to northern Rakhine State. In Bangladesh, donors must help both refugees and their local hosts.
With political polarisation reaching historic highs and local jihadist groups forging links with transnational movements, new forms of militancy threaten security and religious tolerance in Bangladesh. The government should reinforce the capability of law enforcement agencies and the judiciary, and build political consensus on tackling the menace.
The mass flight of Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar’s Rakhine State has created a humanitarian catastrophe and serious security risks, including potential cross-border militant attacks. The international community should press the Myanmar government to urgently implement the Annan commission’s proposals, including as regards discrimination, segregation and citizenship.
These organizations [in Bangladesh] — whether they’re jihadists or student wings of parties like Jamaat-e-Islami — they’re becoming more attractive avenues of opposition.
Originally published in Asia Times
More than one million Muslim Rohingya forced to flee from Myanmar now live in camps in south-eastern Bangladesh. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to increase funding for refugee assistance and use diplomatic leverage to find a compromise on the issue of refugee repatriation.
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