Beijing has more pull with Myanmar’s military rulers than any other outsider. While its influence has limits, it can help quiet border areas, by fighting organised crime and encouraging licit economies. Other powers should probe for areas of potential cooperation in resolving the post-coup crisis.
CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
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The [Myanmar] military is clearly facing significant manpower shortages, which is why it is introducing a draft for the first time in its history.
The military [in Myanmar] might not have the ability to vanquish its opponents, but it retains an enormous capacity for violence, especially against civilian targets.
When the Myanmar military feels under pressure, its normal response is to ramp up the level of violence.
Vietnam fought wars with both US and China, and now has comprehensive strategic partnerships [the highest level] with both of them — that is a masterclass of diplomacy.
Myanmar needs Russia because it doesn't want to be isolated ... and they also need an alternative to China in the region.
If combat persists [in Rakhine State], it will open a significant new front for the regime [in Myanmar], which is already overstretched.
In this video Miriam Coronel-Ferrer reflects on the gains made and challenges that remain for the Bangsamoro region ten years after the 2014 peace agreement.
Village elections in the southern Philippines tend to be hard-fought and violent. Crisis Group expert Georgi Engelbrecht travelled there to understand what the most recent showdowns mean for regional polls scheduled for 2025 and for the peace process in an area historically racked by conflict.
As 2025 elections draw near in the Philippines’ newly autonomous Muslim-majority region, threats to the peace process have emerged. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024, Crisis Group outlines what the EU can do to preserve its gains.
Illegal activity is flourishing in the Golden Triangle Special Economic Zone, a riverside area in Laos run by a crime boss. Our team visited in 2023, capturing what they saw in this photo essay.
Nearly a million Rohingya remain stuck in Bangladesh, with little hope of going home soon, as violence rises in the camps and international agencies trim their assistance. Donors should scale the aid back up, while Dhaka should modify its approach to allow for long-term planning.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey, to discuss ethnic armed groups’ offensive against Myanmar's military in northern Shan State, fighting between resistance forces and the army elsewhere, China’s response to the escalation and the humanitarian consequences.
Fighting has intensified greatly in Myanmar in recent weeks. Having started in northern Shan State, it is now spreading elsewhere. As Crisis Group expert Richard Horsey explains in this Q&A, the military is under significant pressure on the battlefield, with worrying humanitarian implications.
This event brings together analysts and prominent civil society members to discuss the evolution of governance in Myanmar and what this means for stakeholders inside and outside the country.
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