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South East Asia

CrisisWatch
Conflict Tracker South East Asia
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Trends for Last Month March 2021

Deteriorated Situations

Myanmar

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Outlook for This Month April 2021

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Contributor

Interim President
atwoodr

In his introduction to this month’s CrisisWatch, Interim President Richard Atwood reflects on the pandemic’s impact one year after Crisis Group published its first report on COVID-19 and conflict. 

Read President's Take

Reports & Briefings

In The News

5 Mar 2021
There will inevitably be calls for UN sanctions [against Myanmar], but I don’t think China and Russia are ready to go that far. Bloomberg

Richard Gowan

UN Director
13 Aug 2020
As Myanmar starts to consolidate a system of electoral democracy after so many decades of authoritarianism, observers play a key role in giving the elections credibility. The New York Times

Richard Horsey

Senior Adviser, Myanmar
20 Mar 2020
[The drug trade] is a problem of the armed conflict in Myanmar [and] it is also a problem of corruption. ASEAN Today

Richard Horsey

Senior Adviser, Myanmar
12 Feb 2020
I think the reason [for the new talks in Thailand] is that [the Muslim separatists] recognize that the conflict is not going to end on the battlefield for them; it's going to have to end at the negotiating table. Voice of America

Matthew Wheeler

Senior Analyst, South East Asia
22 Jan 2020
As difficult as the [peace process in Thailand] has been up to this point, the most difficult work remains to be done. AFP

Matthew Wheeler

Senior Analyst, South East Asia
18 Jan 2020
The overall impression is that Myanmar is being cautious about Chinese investment, especially ahead of elections planned later in the year. ABC

Richard Horsey

Senior Adviser, Myanmar

Latest Updates

Speech / Asia

Myanmar on the Brink of State Failure

In a briefing to the UN Security Council’s 9 April 2021 'Arria-Formula' Meeting on the situation in Myanmar, Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey warned that the country stands on the brink of state failure, and argued that there is every justification for the Council to impose an arms embargo on the regime.

Briefing / Asia

The Cost of the Coup: Myanmar Edges Toward State Collapse

Two months after the 1 February coup, Myanmar is in a deep crisis. The military seems bent on imposing its will, using draconian tactics that are only strengthening demonstrators’ will to resist. International actors should stay united in urging the junta to change course. 

War & Peace: Europe’s Colonial Legacies

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope discuss with cultural historian and author David van Reybrouck his new book on the legacy of Dutch colonialism in Indonesia and his parallel work on improving the functioning of democracy.

Podcast / Asia

The Coup in Myanmar

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and guest host Comfort Ero speak with Richard Horsey, Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert, about the country’s military coup, the mass protests it has provoked and how the world should respond.

Statement / Asia

Myanmar’s Military Should Reverse Its Coup

On 1 February, Myanmar’s armed forces overthrew the country’s civilian leaders. International actors should make clear in word and deed that there will be no business as usual until the elected government is restored. If protests break out, the military should act with maximum restraint.

Our People

Matthew Wheeler

Senior Analyst, South East Asia
mattzwheeler

Richard Horsey

Senior Adviser, Myanmar
rshorsey

Georgi Engelbrecht

Senior Analyst, Philippines
Durian_Diaries

Katrina Auditor

Fellow, Philippines

Thomas Kean

Consultant, Myanmar & Bangladesh
tdkean