An Agenda for Indonesia: The new President must act boldly to nurture democracy

Whoever becomes Indonesia's first directly elected President is going to face a nightmarish inbox. There are critical decisions to be made on police and military reform, reducing communal tensions, resolving conflicts in Aceh and Papua, and eradicating terrorism. The easiest course of action would be to hope the problems will go away. The consequences won't be catastrophic—Indonesia won't disintegrate, the military won't mount a coup, and foreign investment can't get much lower. The lives of most Indonesians are not affected by what happens in Aceh or Papua, and combating terrorism is still seen as more of a U.S. priority than an Indonesian one. What does the new President have to lose by benign neglect?

A lot. The coming years are critical for Indonesia's political transition. Frustration with ineffectual civilian leaders has already led to disillusionment with democracy in some quarters and nostalgia for the perceived stability and prosperity of the Suharto years. Violence of whatever kind—separatist, communal, vigilante, or terrorist—will only strengthen that nostalgia and weaken the commitment to civilian supremacy.

If the next President is serious about improving Indonesia's security, then the first step should be to appoint the best available professionals as Minister of Defense, Minister of Home Affairs, Minister of Justice and Human Rights, Attorney General, and head of the State Intelligence Agency. The President will also have to deal with bitter rivalry between the police and the military over who's in charge of internal security. The police have the legal authority, but they need the assistance of the military in handling any serious violence. The President must define when and how the military provides that help, as well as sorting out the division of labor between the two forces in about a dozen gray areas, including terrorism, piracy and counterinsurgency.

The conflict in Aceh is even more of a dilemma. A year of martial law there didn't succeed either in eliminating the rebel movement G.A.M. or in winning over the population. The President needs to look beyond the use of force to improve governance and address a widespread demand for justice in a way that will convince the Acehnese there is some benefit to remaining in the Indonesian republic. Such a policy implies a serious investigation into civilian and military corruption, with the wrongdoers prosecuted to the full extent of the law.

Finally, the President is going to have to look at communal tensions. No issue is more sensitive. The recent flare-up in Ambon and the violence in Central Sulawesi are the most obvious indications that relations between Muslims and Christians remain fragile. In the light of U.S. policies in the Middle East and the war on terror, many Indonesian Muslims are convinced of a Christian-Western conspiracy to weaken Islam. And many Christians in the country are equally convinced of a determination by some Muslim legislators to stealthily introduce Shari'a law.

In tackling the challenges facing Indonesia, the President will make enemies who have a vested interest in the status quo. Whoever wins the election will need creativity, commitment, and guts.