Don't sacrifice Indonesian reforms
Don't sacrifice Indonesian reforms
Indonesia's Police: The Problem of Deadly Force
Indonesia's Police: The Problem of Deadly Force
Op-Ed / Asia 2 minutes

Don't sacrifice Indonesian reforms

As New Yorkers found out, it makes a world of difference when terrorism hits home. Before the bombs exploded in Bali on Saturday night, most Indonesians and many foreigners were skeptical about U.S. warnings that Al Qaeda operatives were active in Indonesia. After the carnage in Kuta, although there is as yet no evidence or claim of responsibility by any radical Muslim group, the atmosphere is radically different. "This is our World Trade Center," one Indonesian friend said.

In the immediate aftermath of the bombing, the coordinating minister for security, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, told Indonesians in a television interview that the ramifications were enormous: Tourism in Bali will be devastated, the economy as a whole will suffer, and Indonesia's image in the eyes of the international community will be damaged. "The targets of this attack may have been foreigners, but whoever did this is an enemy of us all," he said.

But what will the political impact be? It is important that the government's reaction be tough, but not counterproductive in any of the following ways:

A bigger role for the army. Just as some civil liberties were seriously curtailed in the wake of Sept. 11, the impact of Oct. 12 in Indonesia could be to set back reformists' efforts to assert civilian control over the military. The lack of clarity over whether the police or the army is responsible for internal security has led to deep hostility between the two forces. Last month the army attacked the police in Binjai, North Sumatra, in a battle that left eight people dead.

The Bali bombings could turn the tide in favor of the army, despite the fact that the army special forces remain a possible suspect in a recent ambush in Papua that left two foreigners and an Indonesian dead. A worsening of communal relations. Most Balinese are Hindu, and there has been resentment building for some time against migrants from other parts of Indonesia, most of whom are Muslim. The resentment is economic and social, but if a Muslim organization were seen to be behind the bombings, it could take on a religious tinge as well. Retaliatory attacks on Muslims would be disastrous and must be prevented.

An anti-terrorism law capable of misuse. A draft of the new law, designed to bring Indonesia into conformity with UN Security Council Resolution 1373, has been circulating for months. Last week President Megawati Sukarnoputri sent it back to the Ministry of Justice for changes. The Bali attacks may speed up passage, but they could also lead to a circumventing of some of the legal safeguards put in place at the insistence of reformists, who are worried about a draconian end product that could be misused, as happened during the regime of President Suharto. Increase in unofficial armed organizations. The police and army may well choose to rely on unofficial vigilante groups and political party-linked militias to conduct patrols, monitor the communities in which they live, and report back to the police. Increased vigilance is desirable, but such groups are already a security nightmare in Indonesia. With no accountability, no training and confidence that stems from official backing, they are a social menace whose role is likely to grow as the 2004 elections approach.

Radicalizing marginal Islamist organizations. The assumption throughout Indonesia and abroad is that a radical Muslim group was responsible for the bombing. At the time of writing there is no known evidence to back this up. Nevertheless, the Indonesian government is likely to be far less tolerant of some of the groups that have treated Osama bin Laden with something akin to hero worship. The government has to tread carefully, though, to ensure that it manages the difficult balance between security and basic freedoms of association and expression, and does not inadvertently encourage more extreme behavior.

The Bali bombings are a tragedy, but their impact will be even worse if they are allowed to obscure the need for steady progress toward political reform.

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