When local elections were held in Aceh on 11 December 2006, conventional wisdom (shared by Crisis Group) was that candidates from the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM) would not do well. They might pick up two or three of the nineteen district races, but the biggest prize – the provincial governorship – was almost certainly out of reach. The old Jakarta-linked parties would benefit from deep pockets, established structures and a split in the former insurgency’s leadership. Polls just before formal campaigning began showed GAM’s governor/deputy governor slate – Irwandi Yusuf and Muhammad Nazar – virtually out of contention. But GAM won overwhelmingly, in what an analyst called “a perfect storm between the fallout from the peace accord and the failure of political parties to understand the changing times”. The challenge now is to govern effectively and cleanly in the face of high expectations, possible old elite obstructionism and some GAM members’ sense of entitlement that it is their turn for power and wealth.

Against seven other slates, Irwandi and Nazar polled 38.2 per cent, more than double their closest competitors. They carried fifteen of the nineteen districts, not only GAM strongholds along the east coast but also areas not even ethnically Acehnese such as Simeulue, an island off the west coast; Gayo Lues; and South East Aceh. In South Aceh, against an entrenched machine, they polled 62 per cent. GAM also did far better than expected in the district races, winning six in the first round and one in a run-off, sometimes by extraordinary margins. In North Aceh, its slate for bupati (district head) and deputy bupati took 67 per cent. In the West Aceh run-off in early March 2007, the GAM team scored a remarkable 76.2 per cent.

How did they do it, especially with so few resources in a country where money seems to buy everything? At the provincial level GAM benefited from deep dissatisfaction with the old parties and their candidates, who were seen as serving the interests of a narrow elite. The district elections, however, demonstrated the effectiveness of GAM’s network of former combatants and supporters, who got out the vote through an army of volunteer workers, appeals to Acehnese identity, a focus on poor and marginal areas that established parties ignored, and in some cases – but probably not enough to make a difference to the outcome – intimidation. Many Acehnese saw maintaining the momentum of the peace process as crucial and voting for GAM a way to guarantee it.

This briefing is based on extensive interviews with all the major players and others involved in the campaign.

Jakarta/Brussels, 22 March 2007