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Briefing 63 / Asia

Indonesia: Jemaah Islamiyah’s Current Status

In late March 2007, arrests by Densus 88, the police counter-terror unit, netted seven detainees in Central and East Java (an eighth was killed); a huge cache of explosives and weaponry; and documents that seemed to suggest a new military structure for Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the region’s largest jihadist organisation.

I. Overview

In late March 2007, arrests by Densus 88, the police counter-terror unit, netted seven detainees in Central and East Java (an eighth was killed); a huge cache of explosives and weaponry; and documents that seemed to suggest a new military structure for Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the region’s largest jihadist organisation. The arrests followed directly from information obtained from operations in Poso, Central Sulawesi, in late January.

Wildly differing assessments of JI’s state in the aftermath of the March raids suggest a more systematic stock-taking is in order. What remains of the organisation today? What are its aims, and funding sources? Where are its strongholds? Who are its leaders? What is its relationship with other jihadist organisations at home and abroad? Crisis Group believes JI retains a solid core that probably totals more than 900 members across Indonesia. It likely is not growing but it retains deep roots and a long-term vision of establishing an Islamic state.

While the organisation of its military wing may have changed – but the materials found in March raise more questions than they answer – JI’s strength remains rooted in a territorial command structure, with a five- or six-person religious study circle as the basic building block. Its administrative hierarchy has been largely reduced to what was once Mantiqi II, the division that covers Indonesia, making the head of Mantiqi II (Nuaim alias Abu Irsyad) in effect the JI leader, whether or not he formally carries the title of amir.

It is not clear what has happened to Mantiqi III, the “training” division whose component geographic parts – East Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Sabah and Mindanao – covered the transit routes from Indonesia to the Philippines as well as the conflict area of Poso. Some two dozen JI members remain in Mindanao (as do several smaller groups of non-JI Indonesians), and several Mindanao veterans made their way to Poso over the last two years. But it is possible that these areas have been brought under a central command and no longer report to a separate division.

JI is in a building and consolidation phase which for the most part means that it is unlikely to be interested in large, expensive operations that could further weaken its support base. Major attacks have been the approach favoured by Noordin Mohammed Top, leader of a JI splinter group. But operations that can be both religiously justified and popular enough to attract new recruits cannot be ruled out. For many, opposition to bombings like the 2004 Australian embassy attack and the 2005 Bali bombings (Bali II) is based less on principled opposition to killing civilians than a sense that tactically, the costs outweigh the benefits. Military training to build capacity to take on Islam’s enemies remains an essential element of the JI program.

This briefing is based on a careful reading of the documentary evidence together with interviews with Indonesian officials and individuals close to the radical network.

Jakarta/Brussels, 3 May 2007

Briefing 139 / Asia

Indonesia: Tensions Over Aceh’s Flag

A dispute over a flag in Aceh is testing the limits of autonomy, irritating Indonesia’s central government, heightening ethnic tensions, reviving a campaign for the division of the province and raising fears of violence as the 2014 national elections approach.

I. Overview

The decision of the Aceh provincial government to adopt the banner of the former rebel Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM) as its official provincial flag is testing the limits of autonomy, irritating Jakarta, heightening ethnic and political tensions, reviving a campaign for the division of Aceh and raising fears of violence as a national election approaches in 2014.

On 25 March 2013, the provincial legislature adopted a regulation (qanun) making the GAM’s old banner the provincial flag. It was immediately signed by Governor Zaini Abdullah. The governor and deputy governor are members of Partai Aceh, the political party set up by former rebel leaders in 2008 that also controls the legislature.

The central government, seeing the flag as a separatist symbol and thus in violation of national law, immediately raised objections and asked for changes. Partai Aceh leaders, seeing the flag as a potent tool for mass mobilisation in 2014, have refused, arguing that it cannot be a separatist symbol if GAM explicitly recognised Indonesian sovereignty as part of the Helsinki peace agreement in 2005 that ended a nearly 30-year insurgency. Partai Aceh believes that if it remains firm, Jakarta will eventually concede, as it did in 2012 over an election dispute.

Indonesian President Yudhoyono’s government is torn. On the one hand, it does not want a fight with the GAM leaders; the 2005 peace agreement is the most important achievement of a president who, in his final term, is very much concerned about his legacy. It also is unwilling to provoke GAM too far, fearful that it will return to conflict, a fear many in Aceh discount as unwarranted but one that Partai Aceh has exploited with relish. On the other hand, it does not want to be branded as anti-nationalist as the 2014 election looms, especially as some in the security forces remain convinced that GAM has not given up the goal of independence and is using democratic means to pursue it. The president and his advisers also know that if they allow the GAM flag to fly, it will have repercussions in Papua, where dozens of pro-independence activists remain jailed for flying the “Morning Star” flag of the independence movement.

GAM leaders see little to lose by standing their ground. The flag is a hugely emotive symbol, and defying Jakarta is generally a winning stance locally. Some individual members of parliament see it as a way of regaining waning popularity for failing to deliver anything substantive to their constituencies. Also, Partai Aceh took a controversial decision to partner with Gerindra, the party of former army General Prabowo Subianto, for the 2014 election. Leaders like Muzakir Manaf, deputy governor and former commander of GAM’s armed wing, may want to use the flag issue to show they have not compromised their principles by allying with a man whose human rights record is often questioned.

Within Aceh, adoption of the GAM flag has sparked protests from non-Acehnese ethnic groups in the central highlands and south west. The GAM heartland has always been along the east coast; to highlanders like the Gayo, the flag thus represents the domination of the coastal Acehnese at their expense. The issue has revived a dormant campaign for the division of Aceh into three by the creation of two new provinces, Aceh Leuser Antara (ALA) for the central highlands and Aceh Barat Selatan (ABAS) for the south west. If GAM does not back down on the flag, support for that campaign by the intelligence services is likely to rise, and with it, the probability of increased ethnic tensions.

The options for breaking the stalemate seem to be as follows: the government concedes; GAM concedes, making slight changes to the flag by adding or removing an element; GAM agrees to limits on how or where the flag can be displayed; or the dispute is taken to the Supreme Court, thereby delaying any resolution.

In the meantime, the power of the GAM machinery in Aceh continues to grow.

Jakarta /Brussels, 7 May 2013