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Thailand

CrisisWatch Thailand

Unchanged Situation

In southern insurgency, seven soldiers injured in two coordinated bomb attacks in Narathiwat’s Tak Bai district 2 June. In Pattani, two motorcycle-borne gunmen killed assistant village headman in Yarang district 15 June; gunmen opened fire on group of Buddhist teenagers in Yaring district 17 June, killing two; six soldiers killed by IED attack on their vehicle 19 June; Islamic school teacher shot dead in Nong Chik district 20 June; IED attack in Sungai Kolol, Narathiwat, wounded twelve soldiers and two civilians, including four-year-old girl 23 June. Army chief General Chalermchai Sithisart visited border with Malaysia 4 June, said increased border patrols since May aimed to suppress smuggling and border crossing by Islamist insurgents. Govt gathered almost 100,000 public responses to four questions posed by PM Prayuth during his late May weekly national television broadcast, in which he questioned value of elections; many politicians called questions, which included “Do you think the next election will result in a government with good governance?” and “if conflict re-emerges, who will solve it and by what means?”, a bid to prolong NCPO’s hold on power. NCPO’s hand-picked legislature National Legislative Assembly moved ahead with plans to reset political system and institutions, approving bills to reconstitute Election Commission, National Human Rights Commission and Office of the Ombudsman with regime appointees and to establish national strategy commission to draft twenty-year strategy that elected govts will be required to implement. Police 15 June arrested retired electrical engineer who reportedly confessed to 22 May hospital bombing, bombings on 5 April and 15 May and three other bombings going back to 2007; suspect reportedly supporter of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra and opponent of military rule.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

10 Jun 2017
[The Barisan Revolusi Nasional sees its struggle as] nationalist and anti-colonial. Subordinating their struggle to a forlorn agenda imposed by outsiders would be counter-productive, if not suicidal. The Straits Times

Matthew Wheeler

Analyst, South East Asia
28 Apr 2017
The militants [of the National Revolutionary Front] continue to demonstrate that they have the capabilities to launch attacks across the region despite of the security measures by the Thai state. Voice of America

Matthew Wheeler

Analyst, South East Asia
10 Apr 2017
[The main southern Thai insurgent group BRN] perceive the current (peace) process as one driven by Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur for their own interests. AFP

Matthew Wheeler

Analyst, South East Asia
28 Aug 2016
The bombings [in Thailand] may have been intended to compel the military government to reconsider its approach to the conflict in the deep south. The Washington Post

Matthew Wheeler

Analyst, South East Asia
24 Aug 2016
Two years of military rule haven't really resolved any of the fundamental problems [in Thailand] ... and the constitution won't succeed in doing that either. The day of reckoning is just being delayed. AP

Matthew Wheeler

Analyst, South East Asia

Latest Updates

Watch List 2017 – Second Update

Crisis Group’s second update to our Watch List 2017 includes entries on Nigeria, Qatar, Thailand and Venezuela. These early-warning publications identify conflict situations in which prompt action by the European Union and its member states would generate stronger prospects for peace.

Op-Ed / Asia

Government, Rebels Must End Pernicious Impasse

Originally published in Bangkok Post

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Matthew Wheeler

Analyst, South East Asia
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