Electoral commission 27 July announced President Nkurunziza’s CNDD-FDD party won 81 of 106 seats in 23 July elections for lower house of parliament. Provisional results released 30 July indicated ruling party also won 32 out of 34 lower house seats in 28 July senate elections, boycotted by opposition. Police 10-11 July arrested 11 FNL members accused of attacks targeting ruling party; FNL claimed 50 arrested, EU observation mission stated total 242 arrests since May beginning of electoral process. 2 FNL cadres excluded from party 5 July for “insubordination” after criticising FNL elections boycott. FNL president Rwasa, still in hiding, issued message 8 July denying he was planning insurgency. Journalist Jean Claude Kavumbagu arrested 17 July on treason charges after questioning ability of security forces to face terror attacks. Reports emerged 26 July ADC coalition spokesman and opposition CNDD leader Leonard Nyungoma fled country fearing arrest. Public Works Minister Kanyenkiko 20 July resigned from FRODEBU executive committee and party in protest at election boycott.

Leader of outlawed Anglophone self-determination movement SCNC Nfor Ngala Nfor 8 July demanded release of 50 SCNC members allegedly detained arbitrarily. EU 15 July granted EUR4mn for infrastructure in Bakassi peninsula, peace-building and regional integration activities.

CPJP rebels and MLCJ dissidents attacked Birao in NE 19 July; targeted army base, looted NGO compound. Army says 13 attackers, 1 soldier killed. Poachers killed 6 presidential guards in ambush 8-9 July near Bassangoa. UNDP 13 July began verification of ex-combatant lists for DDR in northwest. Visiting CAR 9-10 July, UN Rep for IDPs Kaelin said return of 200,000 IDPs vital to peace. LRA attacked Madabazouma village in southeast 4 July, killed 5, kidnapped 7. President Bozize ended election calendar uncertainty in 30 July decree scheduling presidential and parliamentary elections for 23 Jan 2011.

Chad-Sudan relations strengthened over month: Khartoum 18 July expelled Chadian rebel leaders Erdimi (RFC), Nouri (UFDD) and Tollimi (UFR), while N’djamena defied ICC arrest warrant for Sudanese President Bashir, hosting him 22-23 July at regional summit despite ICC and EU calls for his arrest. Govt 1 July accepted international experts’ participation in inquiry into Feb 2008 disappearance of opposition leader Mahmat Saleh. Govt same day adopted law increasing parliament seats from 155 to 186 to even regional imbalances, as suggested by electoral commission (CENI). Opposition 8 July questioned accuracy of seat allocation, CENI’s impartiality. President Déby 6 July dismissed governor of eastern Ouaddai province where insecurity has soared in recent months. MINURCAT 15 July completed first withdrawal phase, pulled out 1,400 troops.

PM Soro 23 July resigned as head of FN. ECOWAS 3 July renewed mediator mandate of Burkinabé President Campaoré, urged govt to hold oft-delayed elections before 2011. Demonstrators protested in Dadane and Touba 4 July against embezzlement inquiry into PM Soro and Interior Minister Tagro, claiming inquiry is attempt to stall peace process. Electoral commission 5 July issued preliminary voters list with 5.7mn voters; final review started 20 July. EU 5 July froze funds for elections due to lack of progress. 3 journalists fined 26 July for leaking documents of judicial inquiry into corruption in cocoa sector.

Wide-ranging security concerns persisted across eastern DRC. In North Kivu, ongoing FARDC operation “Ruwenzori”, launched 27 June, against Ugandan ADF-NALU rebels near Beni triggered clashes in Eringeti area; FARDC 12 July said 13 rebels killed, 5 rebels and 10 associates arrested. ADF 27 July reportedly ambushed civilian truck in east Beni; 15 killed. Massive FARDC presence in Beni, Butembo areas coincided with increased violence and killing of prominent civilians. OCHA 19 July reported over 70,000 displaced; new mission MONUSCO launched 1 July, 20 July set up temporary bases to facilitate humanitarian assistance. Orientale province saw increased small-scale LRA attacks in Niangara, Bangadi and Faradje areas; 7 killed in early month LRA attacks on Faradje and Dungu. 20 arrested 11 July during pro-secession demonstration in Lubumbashi. 19 alleged ex-FDLR arrested 3 July having fled resettlement camps in Kisenge, Katanga due to poor living conditions; local authorities requested repatriation to Rwanda. In western Equateur province, political leader of Enyele rebels Mambenga arrested 3 July and transferred to Kinshasa. ICC judges 15 July ordered release of Thomas Lubanga after Chief Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo refused order to provide information to judges; release suspended following appeal by prosecutor 17 July. ICC 7 July postponed Jean Pierre Bemba trial; defence’s challenge to admissibility of case not decided. New Independent National Electoral Commission officially launched 30 July to prepare for 2011 elections.

UN USG Pascoe 20 July informed UNSC Qatar had confirmed Eritrean troop withdrawal from disputed Ras Doumeira and Doumeira island in Djibouti and deployed military observers. Eritrean representative called for lifting of 2009 sanctions, withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Eritrean territories as decided by Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission.

Highest court 20 July rejected case brought by opposition challenging May parliamentary election results.

Cellou Diallo (UFDG) and Alpha Condé (RPG) qualified for second round of presidential polls with 43% and 18% of vote respectively following 27 June elections. Diallo signed agreement with 3rd-placed Sidya Touré (UFR) 28 July. Delays in vote counting fuelled claims of fraud and tensions: police 5 July used teargas against protesters in Conakry; 20 candidates challenged poll results, but Supreme Court 20 July confirmed numbers. PM Doré 17 July said security forces foiled suspected plot to destabilise country, arrested suspects, gave no further details. President Konaté 1 July rehabilitated 16 officers accused of 1985 coup plot; 3 July promoted all soldiers between corporal and major by 1 rank, 14 July promoted regional governors.

Relations between govt and international partners strained since 26 June nomination of 1 Apr mutiny chief General Indjai as army chief of staff: ECOWAS 3 July condemned appointment; EU 5 July announced reassessment of support and end of SSR mission for Nov 2010; U.S. withdrew offer to support SSR. U.S. 15 July called for global sanctions against former navy chiefs Na Tchuto and Papa Camara for alleged involvement in drug trafficking. UNSC 22 July urged govt to free or try suspects in Apr mutiny and bring military under civilian control, voiced concern over rise in drug trafficking.

Concerns over political violence persisted ahead of 4 Aug constitutional referendum. Early month intimidation of “migrants” in Rift Valley, Nyanza and Western provinces triggered pre-emptive population displacement. Govt deployed thousands of additional security forces to potential political hotspots where majority indigenous ethnic groups oppose new constitution’s proposed land redistribution reforms. 3 arrested 17 July over alleged plot to bomb scheduled Christian rally in Mombasa where Church leaders oppose new charter’s abortion clause. 2 opinion polls 23 July indicated majority support for proposed constitution. Authorities blamed al-Shabaab for 20 July attack on Kenyan border post; 1 officer reportedly killed, 1 wounded.

No breakthrough in political impasse. SADC evaluation mission met with all major protagonists 4-8 July; head of SADC mediation team Joaquim Chissano arrived 22 July to continue efforts, reiterated all options remained open, not limited to prior agreements in Maputo and Addis Ababa. National Coordination of Civil Society Organisations (CNOSC) late month issued founding declaration: aims to end crisis through national mediation, rebuild country through comprehensive, all-inclusive consultation and reconciliation. Justice Minister dismissed pleas by ACP-EU parliamentary delegation 10-11 July to release all political prisoners, denied political detentions.

Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) 11 July threatened to kill French hostage Michel Germaneau if France did not meet demands for prisoner swap. French, Mauritanian forces conducted military operation 22 July, killing 6 militants; Mali govt said not consulted. AQIM said Germaneau executed 24 July. Paris 27 July said “at war” with AQIM, French FM Kouchner same day met President Touré. Govt 1 July said Algerian forces can pursue AQIM in Mali following AQIM’s late-June killings of gendarmes in Algeria.

Reports emerged late month series of elections to be delayed by 1 month with presidential elections moved to 31 Jan, presidential inauguration to 8 Apr; followed 3 July electoral commission official announcement presidential elections will be held 3 Jan, inauguration 11 March. Commission same day said US$57mn needed to fund presidential, legislative elections. Media reported ousted ex-President Mamdou Tandja claiming he is too ill to be tried amid ongoing investigations by anti-corruption commission. Police 29 July announced arrest of former PM Oumarou on corruption charges. Niger, Burkina Faso 20 July asked ICJ to settle border dispute.

New head of electoral commission Attahiru Jega took office 1 July, promising sweeping reforms of body. Constitutional amendments passed by Senate 22 July and House of Representatives 27 July requiring elections be held 120-150 days before end of presidential term to allow time to resolve legal challenges; brings forward election date to Jan 2011 instead of Apr. Debate within ruling People’s Democratic Party over “zoning” policy, under which party’s candidates for president alternate between north and south, continued; President Jonathan yet to announce candidacy. Former deputy leader of radical Islamic sect Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau, whom police claimed to have killed in July 2009 uprising, issued statement 14 July expressing solidarity with al-Qaeda in Iraq, threatening U.S. Isolated incidents of violence continued in middle belt/north: Christian and Muslim youths clashed in Wukari, Taraba State, 13 July in dispute over location of mosque, 4 killed; suspected Fulani Muslims 17 July attacked Christian community near Jos, Plateau State, 8 killed; Shiite, Sunni clash in Sokoto 20 July left 4 injured. Security forces 22 July defused bomb found in building in Jos. In Niger Delta, govt re-started rehabilitation and reintegration programmes for ex-militants, despite minor hitches. 1,000 self-proclaimed ex-militants 7 July staged protest in Abuja against exclusion from retraining programme. Gunmen blew up country home of impeached deputy governor of Bayelsa state 23 July against backdrop of political tensions between governor and deputy governor. Senate president David Mark 15 July called for state of emergency in southeastern states to stem increasing cases of kidnapping, including of 4 journalists and driver seized in Abia State 11 July, freed following week.

Growing political violence, shrinking of democratic space ahead of 9 Aug presidential election. Democratic Green Party VP and ex-RPF-turned-critic Andre Kagwa Rwisereka found dead 14 July; Rwisereka’s business partner arrested same day for murder; Green Party, rights groups calling for independent inquiry. Editor of independent newspaper Umurabyo and 2 journalists arrested 13 July for article likening President Kagame to Hitler. Tanzanian ICTR defence lawyer Mwaikusa killed 13 July in Dar-Es-Salaam. Electoral campaign for 9 Aug presidential polls started 20 July; only 4 parties admitted: ruling RPF, PL, SDP and PPC. FDU and Democratic Green Party candidates remained barred. Close to 2,000 Rwandan Hutu refugees forcefully repatriated out of Uganda 14 July with Rwandan police participation (see Uganda).

Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for 11 July bomb attacks in Kampala killing at least 85 (see Uganda), confirming group’s intent to drive foreign forces out of Somalia and demonstrating capability to export conflict to wider region. Al-Shabaab leader Sheikh Mukhtar Abu-Zubeyr 15 July threatened further Kampala attacks, warned Burundi would be targeted next. AU said it would increase AMISOM’s strength to 8,000 troops and allow forces to pre-emptively attack al-Shabaab. Guinea, Djibouti, Uganda and Burundi among countries ready to send more troops. Scores of civilians killed as renewed fighting broke out 18 July between al-Shabaab and govt forces north of Mogadishu. Reports emerged 21 July of AU internal documents issued Apr and June expressing concern over AMISOM’s indiscriminate shelling of residential areas. 13 alleged al-Shabaab killed in northern Puntland late July during clashes with govt forces pursuing southerners alleged to pose security threat to region. Also in Puntland, militia leader Skeikh Mohamed Saiid Atom 28 July declared allegiance to al-Shabaab and vowed jihad in semi-autonomous state; al-Shabaab spokesman in Mogadishu denied links. International Maritime Bureau reported attacks in Gulf of Aden dropped by nearly two-thirds in first half of 2010 compared to 2009 but rose in Somali basin and wider Indian Ocean.

Defeated incumbent President Kahin 26 July peacefully transferred power to successful opposition candidate Ahmed Mahamoud Silanyo, after National Election Commission (NEC) announced Silanyo, Kulmiye Party, won 26 June presidential election; results endorsed 11 July by Chief Justice. EU heads of mission praised peaceful elections, commended NEC.

Reports of attacks on migrant workers in Cape Town, Johannesburg townships saw deployment of police and army reinforcements to quell violence, with fears of repeat of 2008 deadly xenophobic attacks. Several injured, scores of Zimbabweans and other immigrants reportedly leaving country.

ICC 12 July issued second arrest warrant for President Bashir including charges of genocide in Darfur; AU Chair Jean Ping 16 July criticised ICC action as “counterproductive”, Arab League rejected charge. Bashir arrived in Chad for official visit 20 July (see Chad). 19-27 July AU Summit issued communiqué rejecting ICC indictment of Bashir. Renewed fighting in Darfur between govt forces and JEM commenced 13 July; govt claimed 300 rebels and at least 70 SAF killed during 5-day period. Bashir 19 July rejected Govt of South Sudan (GoSS) President Salva Kiir’s initiative to mediate with SLA and JEM who remain outside Qatar peace talks. In South, concern over referendum preparations highlighted 14 July in joint 26-member NGO report calling on AU to urgently address “alarming” lack of readiness; Human Rights Watch report warned of “widespread abuses” ahead of referendum. UNSC 30 July unanimously renewed UNAMID mandate until 31 July 2011; Sudanese officials 31 July claimed UN peacekeepers in Darfur now required to inform Khartoum of all movement, UNAMID spokesman said unaware of any such official request.

Somali Islamist militia al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for 11 July bomb attacks in Kampala which resulted in 85 deaths and at least 60 injured, confirming longstanding fears of regional threat posed by al-Shabaab. Attacks came after several explicit warnings al-Shabaab would “bring war to Uganda and Burundi” in revenge for troop contribution to AMISOM supporting Somali transitional govt. More than 20 suspects, including Pakistani, Ethiopian and Somali nationals arrested in following days, majority released 22 July; 3 arrested Kenyans 30 July charged with murder, terrorism, 10 counts of attempted murder. President Museveni 15 July pledged continued commitment to AMISOM, pronounced Uganda’s intent to go on the offensive against al-Shabaab. Close to 2,000 Rwandan Hutu refugees forcefully repatriated to Rwanda 14 July with Rwandan police participation; 2 killed. UNHCR 16 July condemned violation of refugee rights; govt 20 July defended action claiming those repatriated had no refugee status and posed security risk.

Constitutional consultations underway since mid-June continued. Amid NGO allegations of ZANU-PF intimidation of villagers to back views of the party, Constitutional Parliamentary Committee early month called for arrest of civil society workers monitoring public consultation process. ZANU-PF deputy legal affairs secretary Patrick Chinamasa 14 July stated party will use legal means to block any draft constitution not reflecting its views. MDC 6 July released report naming over 11,000 perpetrators of political violence since March 2008, stating over 500 MDC members/supporters murdered by ZANU-PF militants or state security agents during period. Finance Minister Biti said President Mugabe and senior army officers implicated in atrocities should not be prosecuted if they leave office voluntarily. Supreme Court 28 July adjourned indefinitely hearing of state appeal against May acquittal of MDC-T treasurer Roy Bennett on treason charges. National executive committees of ZANU-PF and 2 MDC parties met for first time since formation of unity govt 21 July to discuss ways to end political violence. Members of Kimberly Process Certification Scheme 15 July agreed to allow Zimbabwe to export some diamonds from controversial Marange fields; followed MDC joining calls by ZANU-PF for exports to be allowed. Zimbabwean delegation met with EU High Rep Ashton in Brussels 2 July to discuss normalising relations; Ashton called for more democratic, human rights reforms. Mugabe 7 July claimed country would not need Western aid to revive economy. FAO 27 July reported increased agricultural output since 2009, improved food security.

International conference in Kabul 20 July said Afghan forces to take full control of security by 2014, in some provinces by end 2010; endorsed President Karzai’s reintegration program for low-level Taliban fighters. Late month leak of some 75,000 classified U.S. military documents, posted on whistleblowing website, detailed alleged Pakistani ISI support to Taliban, ISAF cover-ups of civilian deaths; U.S. Sec Defense Gates condemned leak as dangerous, irresponsible. Govt 18 July signed new cross-border trade deal with Pakistan, removing some curbs and expanding communication links; bill still pending approval in both countries’ parliaments. Local anti-graft NGO 8 July reported corruption in Afghanistan more than doubled since 2006, now above levels during Taliban rule. General David Petraeus officially took command of U.S., ISAF forces 4 July. ISAF denied govt’s 26 July claim 52 civilians killed in mid-month Helmand NATO rocket attack. Independent Electoral Complaints Commission 7 July blocked “dozens” of candidates from Sept parliamentary elections over ties to militants. UK govt early month said will withdraw troops from Sangin region (Helmand) due to heavy losses; to be replaced by U.S. troops.

Govt 14 July arrested 2 top Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) party leaders for alleged war crimes committed during 1971 independence war; JI claims govt trying to cripple its leadership, with 3 other JI leaders held late June on various charges. Govt 13 July restructured BDR border force, responsible for Feb 2009 mutiny, renamed Border Guard Bangladesh; further 801 BDR soldiers charged 12 July with crimes committed during mutiny, including murder. Supreme Court 18 July lifted ban on pro-opposition newspaper, imposed by govt June.

Police 2 July killed top Maoist leader “Azad” in Andhra Pradesh; Maoists 8 July killed 7, including 5 police, in string of attacks in eastern states. Govt 14 July set up “unified command” to coordinate, strengthen efforts against Maoists. More than 800 killed in Maoist violence during 2010, close to 2009 total. 5 police killed in 30 July Assam blast; separatist ULFA militant group claimed responsibility.

Huge anti-India protests continued throughout month across Valley, with at least 9 demonstrators killed in clashes with police in July. Indian govt 7 July deployed troops in Srinagar and Baramulla to quell protests, first Kashmir army patrols since 1990. India-imposed curfews continued off and on during month. 1 Indian army colonel, 1 senior Lashkar-e-Tayyaba militant group commander killed in 14 July gun battles. Pakistan, India FMs 15 July in first meeting since 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks; little progress. Pakistan FM Qureshi accused India of “selectively” focusing on terrorism, refuted India Home Secretary G.K. Pillai’s 14 July accusation that ISI behind Mumbai attack.

Demonstrations demanding referendum on Papuan independence continued: some 2,500 in largely peaceful 8 July protest across province; protesters occupied provincial parliament in Jayapura. Papua activist Yusak Pakage, jailed for 2004 raising of Papuan independence flag, Morning Star, released from prison 8 July. National anti-graft NGO activist severely beaten in Jakarta 8 July amidst heightened media focus on police corruption; police denied responsibility, President Yudhoyono called for full investigation. Yudhoyono 16 July created by decree new National Body for Handling Terrorism reporting directly to him. 5 arrested late June in Klaten district (Java), including Jemaah Islamiyah associate Abdullah Sonata, officially named terrorist suspects by police 1 July. U.S. 23 July lifted 12-year ban on cooperation with army (TNI) special forces unit Kopassus, originally imposed due to alleged human rights abuses.

UNSC 9 July issued presidential statement condemning “attack which led to the sinking of the Republic of Korea naval ship Cheonan”, but avoided directly blaming N Korea. NK Permanent Secretary to UN hailed UNSC statement as “great diplomatic victory” for Pyongyang. U.S.-led UN Command and NK met 3 times in DMZ; UN called sinking violation of 1953 armistice. U.S. Sec State Clinton, Sec Defense Gates travelled to S Korea 21 July in show of solidarity, announced new sanctions against NK targeting sale or purchase of arms used to fund regime’s nuclear activities. Gates said 25-28 July U.S.-S Korea naval drills would send “strongsignal”of deterrence; NK National Defence Commission vowed 24 July to respond with “powerful nuclear deterrence” and “sacred war”. Chinese FM Yang 25 July repeated call for restraint from all sides. S Korea FM Yu 18 July said Seoul not prepared to return to 6 Party Talks, suspects NK may use talks to divert attention from sinking of Cheonan.

National Democratic Front (NDF), splinter group from officially disbanded opposition NLD, 9 July received govt permission to form new party; NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi criticised NDF’s decision to take part in upcoming election, including use of NLD straw hat symbol for campaigning. ASEAN FMs 20 July applied strong pressure on Myanmar to hold “free, fair and inclusive” elections. Influential govt-controlled social organisation USDA disbanded 6 July, transferred assets to army’s political party USDP; rights groups highly critical. U.S. Senate 22 July voted to extend by 1 year ban on imports from Myanmar. Win Htein, former aide to Suu Kyi, released from prison 15 July after completing 14-year sentence. India, Myanmar signed new security pact 27 July following 4-day official visit to India of junta leader Than Shwe.

Political crisis continued as Constituent Assembly 23 July for 2nd time failed to pick new PM following ex-PM Madhav Nepal’s late June resignation: neither Maoist leader Prachanda nor NC party candidate Ram Chandra Paudel won required majority of votes. UML and alliance of 4 Tarai-based parties abstained, called for consensus govt; new vote scheduled for 2 Aug.

102 killed in 9 July suicide attack on Mohmand Agency governor’s office; at least 42 killed in 1 July suicide attack on Lahore Sufi shrine; Taliban suspected. PM Gilani 23 July extended tenure of army chief General Kayani by full 3-year term. Balochistan National Party secretary general killed by gunmen 14 July in Quetta; no claim of responsibility. Militant attacks continued in Orakzai Agency during month despite army’s June declaration of victory.

President Ninoy Aquino 15 July announced plans to revive dialogue with MILF, appointed prominent law professor as head of govt peace panel; MILF welcomed appointment, but said peace dependent on govt policies. Harassment, intimidation of witnesses to Nov 2009 Maguindanao massacre continued: gunmen 25 July killed 1 aide to prominent witness. 1 local Bayan Muna party official gunned down 5 July. Abu Sayyaf militants 8 July killed 3 on Sulu. Military-New People’s Army clashes continued: 7 soldiers killed in 9 July gun battle in north.

Housing Minister Wimal Weerawansa led protests from 6 July against UN advisory panel on possible human rights abuses during civil war, announced June, outside Colombo UN compound; UNSG Ban 8 July closed UNDP regional office, recalled top envoy for consultation over govt’s failure to prevent protesters from disrupting UN work; U.S., EU 9 July condemned protests. EU 5 July confirmed withdrawal of GSP+ trade concession for Sri Lanka from 15 Aug after govt ignored EU’s conditions, including improving human rights and withdrawing war-time emergency laws. Police 13 July launched new case against ex-army chief and current MP Sarath Fonseka over employing army deserters during 2009 presidential campaign; Fonseka still in military custody, facing 2 courts martial.

Govt 6 July lifted state of emergency in 5 provinces, but rights groups criticised its extension for 3 months in 19 others and Bangkok; state of emergency lifted by end-month in 9 further provinces. 1 killed, 10 injured 25 July in Bangkok bomb blast on day of by-election, no claim of responsibility; poll saw ruling Democrat Party candidate narrowly beat Puea Thai party candidate Kokaew Pikulthong, still detained for role in March-May “red shirt” protests; opposition claimed they were disadvantaged under state of emergency. Attorney-General’s Office 13 July recommended dissolving Democrat Party over illegal donations received 2005; Constitutional Court to hold 1st hearing on case 9 Aug. New Politics, political party of People’s Alliance for Democracy, 3 July elected “yellow shirt” head Somsak Kosaisuk as leader. In South, 8 killed, including 6 security officials, in 1-2 July bombings in Yala, Narathiwat provinces; 3 civilians killed in 18 July Narathiwat attack.

FM da Costa downplayed concern over “aggressive” Indonesia army patrols in disputed Natuka area (Oecusse enclave) from May. Timor-Leste National Police commander announced major rotation of senior officers in further step towards full implementation of promotions law. Australia PM Gillard 6 July announced plans to create regional processing centre for refugees in Timor-Leste; President Ramos-Horta expressed cautious support, but parliament 12 July unanimously rejected plan in non-binding resolution.

Opposition leaders, including ex-President Ter-Petrossian, stated govt acceptance of Madrid principles for Nagorno-Karabakh settlement likely to result in domestic backlash, including possible regime change. 2 opposition youth activists went on trial 14 July on charges of hooliganism and resistance to police during 31 May demonstration; opposition Armenian National Congress said charges politically motivated. EU High Rep Ashton in Yerevan 19 July announced start of talks on association agreement to lead potentially to visa-free travel and free-trade regime.

Reports emerged mid-month Turkey will open border with Armenia for NATO disaster relief exercise in Sept; but following failure of Armenia-Azerbaijan talks on Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K) settlement on sidelines of OSCE ministerial meeting, Turkish FM Davutoğlu 17 July ruled out possibility for time being. Armenian President Sarkisian 21 July said Turkey’s turn to take next step to normalise ties. In 4 July visits to Yerevan and Baku U.S. Sec State Clinton pressed for resolution of stalled N-K peace process, called on Turkey to move forward with normalisation of ties with Armenia.

Armenian, Azerbaijani FMs held talks on sidelines of OSCE ministerial meeting in Almaty 16-17 July with no progress. Resulted in statement by Minsk Group co-chair representatives, French FM Kouchner, Russian FM Lavrov, U.S. Deputy Sec State Steinberg, saying efforts by 2 parties insufficient to overcome differences, and reiterating Madrid principles as basis for settlement: return of occupied territories surrounding N-K, interim self-governance status for N-K and corridor linking it to Armenia, final status to be determined by legally-binding expression of will, international security guarantees. Armenia reported Russian President Medvedev had proposed “new version” of principles at 17 June St. Petersburg talks; 21 July expressed support for new framework. Azerbaijan 22 July said proposal unacceptable, violates Minsk Group format. U.S. Sec State Clinton in Azerbaijan and Armenia 4 July to revitalise stalled talks on N-K settlement.

Opposition rally held 31 July despite ban on protests in Baku city center; some 100 reportedly arrested. Govt 15 July filed appeal against Apr ruling by European Court of Human Rights for immediate release and payment of damages to journalist Eynulla Fatullayev serving 8+ year sentence for libel, instigation of terrorism, tax evasion; claimed Court overstepped jurisdiction. Fatullayev 6 July sentenced to additional 2.5 years for drug possession while in prison. EU High Rep Ashton in Baku 16 July announced start of talks on association agreement.

Trial started 15 July for 22 members of Udalbiltza Kursaal, assembly of banned pro-independence party Batasuna, accused of ETA membership and fundraising. Jailed ETA member Txapote sentenced to further 8 years for providing explosives to ETA cell.

Airing of negative documentaries about President Lukashenka on Gazprom-owned Russian NTV and subsequent broadcast of interview with Georgian President Saakashvili on Belarus state TV signaled deepening fall-out between Moscow and Minsk. Still, Lukashenkа 5 July signed documents for joining customs union announced early month between Russia and Kazakhstan.

Republika Srpska (RS) PM Dodik 22 July said ICJ’s ruling that Kosovo’s declaration of independence did not violate international law will serve as “guidance” for RS status aspirations. On day after 11 July commemoration of 15th anniversary of Srebrenica massacre, Dodik said Srebrenica not genocide, criticised foreign officials who attended ceremony.

On 20 July’s 36th anniversary of Turkish army’s intervention, Greek Cypriot leaders criticised “occupation of Cyprus”, expressed commitment to reunification; Turkish Cypriot leader Eroglu called for agreement by end of 2010. Turkish deputy PM Cicek 20 July warned if forced to choose between EU and Turkish Cypriots, Turkey will choose latter; that if no settlement by end-year, “each side will go its own way”. Eroglu and Greek Cypriot President Christofias met 6 times over month to discuss property issue; UNSG Special Adviser in Cyprus Downer 8 July said talks going “fine”. Media confirmed UNSG report on Cyprus reunification talks to come Nov.

U.S. Sec State Clinton 5 July, French FM Kouchner 15 July in Tbilisi voiced strong support for country’s territorial integrity. President Saakashvili 7 July held meetings with Ukrainian President Yanukovych, ex-President Yushchenko in Kyiv; 16 July met Belarusian President Lukashenka, using diplomatic gestures to express appreciation for their non-recognition of Abkhazia, South Ossetia (SO). Several incidents of brief detention of ethnic Georgians for alleged illegal crossing of administrative borders with Abkhazia, SO over month. Abkhaz de facto authorities 23 July reversed June decision to withdraw from international talks in Geneva over failure to sign agreement with Georgia on non-resumption of hostilities. Abkhaz leader Bagapsh mid-month expressed openness towards EU policy of “engagement but non-recognition”. EU High Rep Ashton in Tbilisi 15 July announced start of talks on association agreement to lead possibly to visa-free travel and free-trade regime. EU 26 July extended mandate of monitoring mission in country until Sept 2011. Amid strong resistance by opposition parties, constitutional commission established by President Saakashvili 21 July submitted for parliamentary approval new draft constitution to create parliamentary republic, opening way for Saakashvili to run for PM post and retain leadership of country after end of second and last term as president.

At OSCE ministerial meeting 16-17 July near Almaty, govt secured commitment to hold OSCE summit in Astana by end of year. Customs union with Russia and Belarus launched early month. Court 16 July sentenced opposition politician Aidos Sadykov to 2 years for hooliganism and resistance to law enforcement authorities; supporters claim charges politically motivated.

ICJ 22 July ruled international law contained no applicable prohibition on declarations of independence, hence Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence from Serbia not illegal. Kosovo’s parliament 23 July adopted declaration hailing ICJ’s opinion, welcomed EU’s offer for talks with Serbia, but only if on technical issues. European Parliament 8 July adopted resolution calling on all EU member states to recognise Kosovo’s independence. In ethnically divided town of Mitrovica, Kosovo Serb lawmaker shot and wounded 5 July; explosion killed 1, injured 11 during 2 July protest by Serbs against opening of Kosovo govt office in town.

Following 16-17 July ministerial meeting on international measures in aftermath of June violence, OSCE leaders 22 July formally announced will deploy 52-member unarmed police advisory group to south for 4 months. Osh Mayor Melis Myrzakmatov and Osh city council denied need for mission, while over 2,000 in south and Bishkek protested deployment, despite govt’s 21 July admission of its inability to protect citizens, and repeated calls for international assistance. Govt mid-month announced will form national commission to investigate violence in south; at OSCE ministerial meeting agreed to international inquiry headed by OSCE Parliamentary Assembly special envoy Kiljunen. UNHCHR 20 July said Kyrgyz security forces responsible for repeated rights violations against ethnic Uzbeks, including torture, arbitrary detention, ill-treatment. UNHCR 27 July warned some 75,000 internally displaced at risk, including detention, harassment by authorities. Akhmat Bakiyev, brother of ousted president, detained in Jalal-Abad 21 July, reportedly confessed to involvement in riots. Roza Otunbayeva sworn in as caretaker president 3 July until 2011; appointed new cabinet after resignations of leading ministers to campaign for fall elections. International donors conference in Bishkek 28 July pledged $1.1bn reconstruction aid amid govt warnings of economic collapse, large budget deficit.

Following controversial June decree by acting President Ghimpu demanding Moscow withdraw troops from Transdniestria and designating 28 June as national “Day of Soviet Occupation”, Russia early month halted imports of Moldovan wine citing poor quality.

Over 80 officers injured as police came under attack during 4 nights of rioting in Belfast 12-15 July; 3 police officers shot 12 July; police deployed water cannons, rubber bullets; several arrests made. Disturbances came during height of marching season, traditional flashpoint for sectarian violence. 6 police officers injured 3 July in rioting by about 100 people in West Belfast. Latest in series of bombs targeting police stations exploded 21 July in West Belfast, no casualties; bomb believed to be targeting police exploded 11 July in County Armagh, no casualties.

Russian PM Putin 6 July outlined elements of strategy for boosting economic development in restive republics to fight insurgency, including creation of 400,000 new jobs, building resort infrastructure. Continuing surge of violence in Kabardino-Balkaria attributed to new insurgent commander Asker Djappuyev aka Amir Abdullakh: high-profile militant raid on hydropower plant in Baksan 21 July left 2 dead, several injured, destroyed 2 generators; 3 policemen killed in separate incidents 5-6 July in Baksan, additional 200 police deployed to town. Series of attacks on mobile phone towers early month; several other explosions throughout republic. In Dagestan: 6 women identified as potential suicide bombers, 2 men alleged to be their handlers arrested 12 July in Makhachkala. Multiple deadly incidents over month, including killing of at least 3 policemen and head of police department, 7 soldiers, district court judge, village head of administration; several explosions on railroads. Dagestan President Magomedov late month threatened harsh reprisals against militants, turning away from previous focus on dialogue with insurgency.

Chechnya

President Kadyrov 7 July announced militants not responsible for “grave crimes” will be allowed to return to civilian life, provided employment if they denounce violence. Several soldiers reported killed in counterinsurgency operations 5 July, 23 July.

Govt 23 July said ICJ’s 22 July decision that Kosovo’s declaration of independence did not violate international law failed to answer question whether unilaterally proclaimed secession is legal (see Kosovo); asserted commitment to preserving country’s territorial integrity, defend position at UN General Assembly (UNGA). 28 July submitted draft resolution to UNGA saying unilateral secession not acceptable means for solving territorial disputes, calling for resumption of talks for mutually agreed solution; followed 26 July motion by Parliament backing govt Kosovo policy. President Tadic attended 11 July ceremony in Bosnia commemorating Srebrenica massacre, vowed to bring former Bosnian Serb commander Ratko Mladic to justice.

Security officials 24 July announced arrest of 6 followers of rebel Mahmud Khudoyberdiyev this year; leader and supporters sought for role in 1998 armed incursion in Sogd region. Interior Ministry late month announced arrest of alleged Uzbek al-Qaeda operative in first case charging Central Asian citizen with al-Qaeda membership. Authorities tightened security in Dushanbe after Supreme Court 7 July handed down prison sentences of up to 30 years to 49 associates, including 2 sons, of late senior govt minister Mirzo Ziyoev for formation and participation in armed groups. 2 alleged members of Islamic Jihad Union detained early month, extradited to Kyrgyzstan. 10 alleged Hizb-ut-Tahrir activists sentenced to 3-15 years in northern city of Khujand 30 July.

New waves of attacks by PKK saw more than 20 members of security forces killed in month; army’s bombing of PKK bases in northern Iraq continued. Militants bombed pipelines carrying natural gas from Iraq 3 July and Iran 20 July, temporarily suspending supply. PKK leader Murat Karayılan 21 July said group would disarm if govt agreed to UN-monitored ceasefire and certain conditions, threatened attacks on major cities; govt refused to comment. More than 5,000 protestors clashed with police 11 July in southeast city of Diyarbakir during pro-PKK rally; at least 10 arrested. Clashes between Turks and Kurds 25 July in Inegol province. 4 police officers killed 26 July by suspected PKK gunmen leading to further ethnic clashes 27 July in southeastern Hatay province. Istanbul court 19 July indicted 196 people including 30 retired or serving military officers for conspiring to overthrow govt in 2003. Constitutional Court 7 July rejected demands by main opposition Republican People’s Party to annul package of constitutional amendments, approved 12 Sept referendum, asked for revisions to articles giving more authority to President over Constitutional Court appointment processes. FM Davutoğlu 6 July said Israel’s internal investigation of Gaza flotilla raid insufficient, Turkey expects Israel to apologise or accept international investigation. Israel FM Lieberman reiterated Israel has no intention of apologising.

President Berdymukhammedov mid-month proposed founding of privately-owned media to deal with issues of entrepreneurship, industrialisation; reiterated openness to creation of new parties through “thoughtful approach”.