Lebanon
13 January 2023

Outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi maintained that “the scope of [Hizbollah] targets that we have today – as a result of major changes that we did in intelligence – is unprecedented… there are waves of firepower that will strike all of these targets and will cause large and unprecedented damage to Lebanon, including to national infrastructure which supports terror, such as electrical power stations and other infrastructure. Nasrallah knows this, and this is our first and most substantial solution: a strong offensive capability”. He further assessed that “there is no way to know for certain if an attack against Iran will lead Hizbollah to join the fight. It really depends on what the situation is in Lebanon, which is in a state of deterioration. It will depend on what Hizbollah’s situation will be at the time… A third Lebanon war will see a powerful attack that they have never experienced”.

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.