10 July 2023

U.S. intelligence assessed that “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device”, while noting that it had “undertaken research and development activities that would bring it closer to producing the fissile material needed for completing a nuclear device following a decision to do so”. The assessment further highlighted that “Iran’s ballistic missile programs, which already include the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the region, continue to pose a threat to countries across the Middle East... Iran’s work on space launch vehicles (SLVs) – including its Simorgh – shortens the timeline to an ICBM if it decided to develop one because SLVs and ICBMs use similar technologies”.

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.