An unnamed senior U.S. diplomat warned that “the first quarter of next year, Iran breakout will start to approach the margin of error. The IAEA only visits in person about once a week. Iran is not good about keeping cameras on. We could get to a period where essentially they get within the margin of error to configure things and rapidly get one bomb’s worth of [highly enriched uranium] HEU. That does not mean they would have a nuclear weapon. External reports suggest that might take a year or two”. The official further assessed that “Iran is trying to extend the clock for negotiations by essentially re-litigating everything”, while asserting: “we certainly have the capability to put more time on the clock th[r]ough military or other means… The threshold point for that is to be determined. If there would be credible evidence that they are moving towards producing weapons-grade material – or other weaponisation work – [I think there is a] probability [of that]”.
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