Washington 0
7 December 2021

An unnamed senior U.S. diplomat warned that “the first quarter of next year, Iran breakout will start to approach the margin of error. The IAEA only visits in person about once a week. Iran is not good about keeping cameras on. We could get to a period where essentially they get within the margin of error to configure things and rapidly get one bomb’s worth of [highly enriched uranium] HEU. That does not mean they would have a nuclear weapon. External reports suggest that might take a year or two”. The official further assessed that “Iran is trying to extend the clock for negotiations by essentially re-litigating everything”, while asserting: “we certainly have the capability to put more time on the clock th[r]ough military or other means… The threshold point for that is to be determined. If there would be credible evidence that they are moving towards producing weapons-grade material – or other weaponisation work – [I think there is a] probability [of that]”.

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