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CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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August 2018

Africa

South Sudan

President Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar, having signed security and power-sharing agreements in July, signed further power-sharing agreement in Khartoum 5 Aug. Talks continued on outstanding issues including number of states and their boundaries. Machar initially rejected draft agreement including six-month roadmap for conclusion of final deal put forward 28 Aug, but signed it 30 Aug. Kiir granted general amnesty to rebels including Machar 8 Aug. U.S., UK and Norway 10 Aug expressed concern that arrangements agreed so far were “not realistic or sustainable” and called on parties to “bring in a wider range of stakeholders, and develop clear plans for the transition period”. Kiir 15 Aug told state governors that under deal opposition would take over fourteen of 32 governorships. Mediators from regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development chaired by Sudan 26 Aug proposed compromise on number and boundaries of states but parties remained divided on matter. Army accused Machar’s rebels, Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition, of violating ceasefire signed in June by attacking them 21 Aug in two areas of Northern Liech state in north, saying four soldiers and nine rebels killed. Former Botswanan president, Festus Mogae, resigned from position as Chairperson of Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission 20 Aug.

July 2018

Africa

South Sudan

Following signing of framework agreement in June, govt and main rebel group signed further security and power-sharing agreements, creating opportunity for leaders to reduce fighting in Aug; other rebel groups raised objections to political deal and violence continued despite ceasefire. Govt and rebel representatives in Sudanese capital, Khartoum 6 July signed agreement on security arrangements that aimed at moving forces out of population centres, unifying and reorganising military, setting up joint security committee, and deciding where to base forces. Presidency said President Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar had agreed on peace plan 8 July in Entebbe, Uganda that would see Machar reinstated as first vice president (VP), alongside three other VPs, but faction of rebel group Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) allied to Machar 9 July rejected plan, saying rebels should hold two VP positions. Govt and SPLM-IO signed power-sharing agreement in Khartoum 25 July that envisages Machar as VP alongside four others and 35-member govt; twenty ministers from current govt, nine from SPLM-IO and six from other opposition groups. Other opposition groups said deal had shortfalls and lacked clarity on future of legislature. Parliament 12 July passed govt-proposed bill to extend Kiir’s term until 2021, SPLM-IO had called move illegal. UN Security Council 13 July passed U.S.-drafted resolution imposing arms embargo on S Sudan. Govt and rebel forces accused each other of violating ceasefire that came into effect 30 June: fighting 2 July at Maban in former Upper Nile state in far north east reportedly left eighteen civilians dead; fighting also erupted near Wau, former Western Bahr al-Ghazal state in west 20 July. Unidentified gunmen 4 July attacked humanitarian convoy near Mangalla, north of capital Juba, killing one man.

June 2018

Africa

South Sudan

President Kiir and former first VP turned rebel leader Riek Machar signed framework agreement in Sudanese capital Khartoum 27 June, including ceasefire to take effect 30 June, opening opportunity in July to work out comprehensive peace deal. Parties agreed to sign further agreement in next two weeks on composition of new transitional unity govt to rule for three years until general elections. They also agreed to work with Sudan to improve security in oil fields. Kiir and Machar met in Addis Ababa 20 June for first time since fighting re-erupted in 2016. Govt 22 June said Machar could not be part of govt, but that rebel representative could. S Sudan and Sudan 26 June agreed on plan to increase S Sudan’s oil output through rehabilitation of oil infrastructure. Unidentified gunmen ambushed humanitarian convoy between Yei and Lasu in west 26 June, killing Bangladeshi UN peacekeeper.

May 2018

Africa

South Sudan

Signatories of Aug 2015 peace agreement 17 May began third round of talks, known as High Level Revitalisation Forum, mediated by South Sudan Council of Churches under auspices of regional grouping Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD); talks broke down 23 May having made no significant progress. IGAD allowed former army chief turned rebel Paul Malong to send representatives to talks under umbrella of opposition party. Ugandan President Museveni 3 May called on factions of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) – including ruling party, opposition in transitional govt and armed opposition – to unite and pursue South Sudanese-led solution to conflict, as alternative to revitalisation process. SPLM-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) faction in transitional govt led by First VP Taban Deng 7 May said it would reunify with ruling SPLM under 2015 Arusha Agreement, but other SPLM-IO faction loyal to former VP Riek Machar said it would only reunify with govt if it reinstates Machar. At meeting of SPLM’s National Liberation Council, first since civil war began in 2013, President Kiir said Machar could return to S Sudan and SPLM in “personal capacity”, but not govt official; Machar rejected proposal. Belligerents continued to clash, violating Dec 2017 cessation of hostilities; most significant fighting involving govt forces, fighters loyal to Machar and local militias took place in former Unity state in north. U.S. 8 May said transitional govt is no longer “inclusive”, that U.S. opposes any effort by transitional govt to unilaterally extend its mandate and announced review of its humanitarian assistance and support to monitoring bodies to ensure it does not contribute to conflict. UN Security Council 31 May agreed to extend some sanctions on govt until mid-July and, absent cessation of hostilities by 30 June, to consider freezing assets and banning travel for six govt officials, as proposed by U.S..

April 2018

Africa

South Sudan

In late March, regional grouping Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) pledged to place sanctions on individuals violating Dec cessation of hostilities, but fighting continued in several areas; various groups including govt forces and main opposition group Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) allegedly responsible. Former army Chief of Staff Paul Malong Awan 9 April announced creation of his new rebel group, South Sudan United Front, and sought entry to peace talks. IGAD postponed new round of peace talks, scheduled to restart 26 April to 17 May because parties remained uncompromising. Army chief Gen James Ajongo died 20 April; at his funeral 25 April, President Kiir said he regretted not killing group of political leaders he arrested in 2014 and former VP now rebel leader Riek Machar in 2016.

March 2018

Africa

South Sudan

Regional grouping Intergovernmental Authority on Development 26 March scheduled next round of peace talks for 26 April, announced it would place targeted sanctions on ceasefire violators, referred ceasefire monitors’ findings to African Union, and said rebel leader and former Vice President Riek Machar could be released from house arrest in South Africa if he renounced violence, but that he would not be allowed back to Horn of Africa or any country neighbouring S Sudan. Following sexual exploitation scandal involving UN police, govt 9 March announced suspension of UN peacekeeping mission’s (UNMISS) Radio Miraya for allegedly violating media laws; disputed by UNMISS. Govt forces clashed with rebels at Kajokeji, Central Equatoria near Ugandan border 28 March and limited fighting reported in several places in former Upper Nile region. Govt and Egypt signed memorandum of understanding in Juba 12 March to increase cooperation and held consultations on S Sudan joining Arab League; Egypt reiterated its support for govt’s national dialogue and provided financial support.

February 2018

Africa

South Sudan

At close of peace talks 5-16 Feb, regional bloc International Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and African Union threatened punitive actions against parties violating Dec cessation of hostilities; Troika (Norway, UK and U.S.) 19 Feb called on all parties to observe ceasefire. U.S. 2 Feb announced unilateral arms embargo on S Sudan. During talks IGAD proposed draft power-sharing agreement between current transitional govt and opposition forces that would create four deputy vice president positions, expand parliament and grant 51% representation in certain state institutions to transitional govt (including opposition currently in govt) and 49% to other opposition groups. Govt criticised proposal saying four deputy vice presidents was unworkable. After fighting near govt-held Nasir town in north east 12 Feb, opposition walked out of talks for one day. Rebel group Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) loyal to former Vice President Riek Machar said clashes between its members and govt forces in Yei River state in south 26 Feb left rebel commander dead; govt said clashes between rival opposition groups.

January 2018

Africa

South Sudan

Govt forces and rebels continued to violate 24 Dec Cessation of Hostilities (CoH); ceasefire monitors 15 Jan confirmed violations by govt and forces loyal to former VP Machar in Dec and Jan. U.S. Ambassador to UN Nikki Haley 24 Jan called govt “unfit partner” for peace and suggested arms embargo. UN Secretary-General 27 Jan questioned S Sudanese political elites’ commitment to peace, reaffirmed UN support for any punitive actions by regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and pointed out “contradictions” in regional and international approaches. IGAD 27 Jan confirmed its intent to ensure consequences for hindering CoH monitoring processes and for violating ceasefire. AU Chairperson Moussa Faki encouraged implementation of sanctions 28 Jan. President Kiir 7 Jan said former army chief Paul Malong was mobilising troops to fight govt, citing alleged recordings of Malong urging army officials to take up arms against govt; Malong denied authenticity of recordings.

December 2017

Africa

South Sudan

Fighting erupted in several areas despite 24 Dec cessation of hostilities between govt and armed groups, and Jan could see worse clashes due to govt’s removal of some moderate army leaders and strengthened resolve to resist external pressure and confront rebels emboldened by peace process. President Kiir 6 Dec rejected report by regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) special envoy on consultations in lead-up to peace process revitalisation forum; he said that S Sudan was not being treated as equal IGAD member. Troika (Norway, UK and U.S.) 13 Dec said no conflict party including govt can have “undue influence or a veto” on process. Govt mid-Dec replaced some moderate army leadership with more uncompromising officers. Peace process revitalisation forum in Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa 18-21 Dec ended with govt and rebel groups signing cessation of hostilities which came into effect 24 Dec. Within hours fighting broke out in Northern Liech state in north. Clashes erupted in at least three other places and sporadic fighting near Mundri, former Western Equatoria state continued. Govt kept its own peace efforts on hold. Intercommunal fighting persisted in at least four places, killing hundreds.

November 2017

Africa

South Sudan

Former army chief of staff General Paul Malong placed under house arrest 1 Nov; armed standoff between govt forces and his bodyguards continued until, following mediation by elders, he flew to Kenya 20 Nov. Armed members of Murle ethnic group reportedly killed eight people in attack on Dinka village in Jonglei region in east 27 Nov; next day attacked another Dinka village, reportedly killing 43 people. President Kiir met Sudanese President Bashir in Khartoum 1 Nov and made new oil and border security agreements. Horn of Africa grouping Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) continued consultations in preparation for peace process revitalisation forum, IGAD Council of Ministers to meet 14 Dec to set agenda. EU, forum’s main funder, 7 Nov threatened sanctions against any party blocking it. Little progress made in talks aimed at reunifying ruling party Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) held mid-Nov in Ugandan capital, Kampala, and Egyptian capital, Cairo. UN Security Council 15 Nov renewed mandate of peacekeeping force in Abyei (UNISFA) on border with Sudan, established new benchmarks for progress.

October 2017

Africa

South Sudan

As part of peace process revitalisation forum, Horn of Africa grouping Intergovernmental Authority on Development continued pre-forum consultations begun late Sept with armed opposition groups, triggering opposition leaders to claim command of significant armed groups. Rebel group Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition loyal to former First VP Riek Machar launched attacks against govt positions and continued fighting smaller rebel factions in Equatorias in south to demonstrate that it remains strongest rebel group. Some political opposition groups met in Kenya 16-18 Oct to form united front against Kiir with limited success. During trip to S Sudan, U.S. Ambassador to UN Nikki Haley 25 Oct said U.S. had “lost trust” in President Kiir’s govt; her visit to displaced persons’ camp same day sparked protests by those unable to meet her; displaced people destroyed some aid facilities.

September 2017

Africa

South Sudan

Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) rebels loyal to former first VP Riek Machar 20 Sept attacked govt forces in former Unity state in north. In former Western Equatoria state in south west unknown assailants ambushed International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) aid convoy killing driver, ICRC suspended operations in third of country. High-level meetings surrounding UN General Assembly in New York mid-late Sept addressed peace implementation and humanitarian crisis but participants did not agree on new measures. Visiting UN Commission on Human Rights in S Sudan 20 Sept warned that holding elections in 2018, as required by UN-supported peace agreement, could lead to more violence and would be illegitimate given significant displacement. U.S. 6 Sept imposed sanctions on two current and one former official for corruption and hampering peace.