Govt-controlled Supreme Court ratified President Maduro’s victory claim in July election, triggering further outcry from foreign govts as crackdown on opposition supporters deepened. 

Supreme Court validated Maduro’s re-election. Govt-controlled Supreme Court 22 Aug ratified President Maduro’s victory claim in July poll, which pitted him against opposition candidate, Edmundo González, who also claimed victory. Court said ruling was “supported by the tally reports issue by each of the vote machines”, but did not share any tallies to substantiate claims; electoral authorities, meanwhile, had not provided breakdown of results by polling station by end of Aug despite both domestic and international calls to do so. 

International outcry over election continued. Foreign govts continued to express concern about poll, while UN Panel of Electoral Experts 9 Aug said lack of tabulated results had “no precedent in contemporary democratic elections”. Supreme Court ruling failed to convince most capitals that election results were credible. Notably, U.S. and ten Latin American states 23 Aug warned ruling “lacks all credibility, given the overwhelming evidence that González received the most votes”, while Organization of American States same day said electoral authorities provided numbers that “showed mathematical impossibilities”. Brazil and Colombia sought negotiated solution to crisis, with Brazil even suggesting new elections, but there were no indications either Maduro or González are willing to contemplate new poll. 

Govt repression persisted. Prosecutor’s office 30 Aug threatened González with arrest warrant if he failed to appear for questioning about opposition’s publication of electoral results, which it claimed proved Maduro’s defeat; despite warning, González same day missed third and final summons. Meanwhile, domestic indignation at contested election continued. Maduro and other key govt figures 12 Aug dismissed opposition protests as conspiracy by “fascist oligarchy” backed by global right-wing forces. Crackdown on protests as of 31 Aug had resulted in 27 deaths and over 2,400 detentions, including some leading opposition figures snatched off the streets, in what Inter-American Human Rights Commission 28 Aug called a campaign of “state terrorism”; journalists, human rights activists and others continued to face repression. Govt 15 Aug approved anti-NGO law, which critics fear could force many organisations to shutter.

Nicolás Maduro claimed victory in presidential election, triggering fraud allegations, international outcry and protests that turned deadly; popular unrest could rise in coming weeks, increasing risk of violent repression. 

Maduro claimed victory in presidential poll disputed by opposition. Venezuelans 28 July cast ballots following weeks of intense campaigning by President Maduro and opposition candidate, Edmundo González, who was leading in polls despite govt’s unrestrained use of state resources and deliberate efforts to hinder opposition campaign. After polls closed, govt-controlled electoral authorities (CNE) went silent for hours before 29 July announcing that Maduro had secured over 51% of vote compared to 44% for González, but did not release vote tallies. Opposition later that day dismissed result as fraudulent, with González and banned winner of opposition primary María Corina Machado saying voting tallies gathered by opposition gave González a sweeping victory with over 70% of vote. 

Chorus of international voices called for transparent vote count. Actors from region and beyond, including Brazil, Colombia, Chile and U.S., called for transparency in vote count and urged CNE to publish precinct-by-precinct polling results; several international bodies echoed these appeals, including UN and EU. U.S.-based Carter Center, invited by govt to monitor elections, 31 July said election “did not meet international stands of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic”. Caracas 29 July recalled diplomats from Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Perú, Panamá, Dominican Republic and Uruguay in response to their scepticism about results and demanded they reciprocate. Meanwhile, Cuba, Nicaragua, Russia, Bolivia and Honduras congratulated Maduro on his victory.

Protests erupted but were forcefully put down by security forces, leaving 17 dead. Spontaneous demonstrations 29 July erupted across country in response to disputed result, with protesters reportedly toppling statues of former President Hugo Chávez, burning campaign posters of Maduro and attempting to block roads. Protesters also flooded streets of capital Caracas as police and military deployed in large numbers, accompanied by pro-govt para-police forces known as “collectives”; mostly peaceful demonstrations turned violent as police used tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse crowds heading for presidential palace. As of 31 July, 17 deaths had been reported along with over 1,000 arrests. State repression will likely intensify in coming weeks should protests persist. 

Tensions mounted in run-up to July presidential poll as Maduro govt, unwilling to relinquish power, continued to manipulate electoral conditions; outright fraud remains possible.

Opposition candidate’s wide lead in polls raised concerns about govt response. As July presidential poll drew closer, most credible polling organisations gave opposition coalition Unitary Platform’s candidate Edmundo González large lead over President Maduro. Delphos pollster Félix Seijas 4 June cautioned that his surveys show Maduro with “ceiling” of around 30% of vote (20 points behind González), meaning govt’s focus will likely be on discouraging opposition voter participation in order to win. This may require drastic steps, such as ban of Unitary Platform’s ticket and/or González’ candidacy, which would likely throw opposition into disarray. Manipulation of electoral conditions means most likely outcome of poll is victory for Maduro who, along with seven other candidates, 20 June signed agreement to respect results; González refused. In this event, protests are likely following announcement of results, though govt previously vowed to respond harshly, which could shrink their size.

Authorities reduced external election observation. Atop these risks, electoral authorities’ (CNE) late-May cancellation of EU electoral observation mission further indicated govt will prioritise winning poll over recovering international recognition and sanctions relief; opposition-linked CNE member Juan Carlos Delpino 11 June said council president made decision unilaterally, likely on instructions of National Assembly president Jorge Rodríguez; Delpino added that CNE had not met since March. NGO Carter Center and UN 19, 25 June confirmed they will send small observation teams to monitor voting. Deputy FM for Latin America Rander Peña 18 June said govt had invited BRICS+ bloc, including China and Russia, to observe election and confirmed Caracas’ intention to soon join bloc.

Crackdown on opposition figures persisted. Banned opposition candidate María Corina Machado 17 June accused govt of “criminalising the electoral route”, saying 37 opposition activists had been arrested in 2024, four of them in previous week. González same day said govt was creating a “hostile atmosphere” for election, while civil society leaders continued to spotlight security forces’ routine targeting of activists.

Authorities cancelled invitation to EU election observation mission, dealing major blow to hopes of relatively free and fair poll, as opposition and govt campaigning gained momentum.

Govt-controlled election authority rejected EU election observation mission. National Electoral Council (CNE) President Elvis Amoroso 28 May announced it had withdrawn its invitation to EU to send observation mission for July presidential poll, arguing it would be ‘immoral” to allow EU participation given its “neo-colonial practices and interventionism”. Govt-controlled National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez had previously urged authority do this, saying that while govt was committed under Oct 2023 Barbados Agreement to invite EU observers, this was conditional on impartiality and respect for Venezuelan sovereignty, and claimed it was “evident that the European Union favours the candidate of the United States” (referring to opposition coalition Unitary Platform’s candidate, Edmundo González); Rodríguez cited EU’s 13 May decision to maintain all individual sanctions except those targeting several current and former CNE members. CNE’s move indicated govt may be planning to tighten conditions ahead of poll. 

Unitary Platform launched ‘double-headed’ election campaign. Govt and opposition campaigned hard throughout May as elections drew closer. Unitary Platform’s original candidate, María Corina Machado, who is banned from standing for elected office, urged voters at well-attended rallies to support González, who does not have political infrastructure to engage in an intense campaign of his own. Pair 18 May appeared in public together for first time at rally in La Victoria town, González’ birthplace, amid concerns he is perceived to be under Machado campaign’s control. As in other places Machado has campaigned, ruling party same day held parallel rally in La Victoria.

Oil companies scrambled to obtain licences following partial sanctions snapback. After U.S. announced in April that it would not renew General Licence 44, under which Venezuela could sell oil and gas on open market, U.S. Treasury Department 22 May announced up to 50 firms had requested individual licences to continue doing business with state oil corporation PDVSA, which is permitted under new GL-44a licence. 

Opposition coalition rallied behind little-known presidential candidate Edmundo González, raising hopes for a more competitive election in July; U.S. partially revoked sanctions relief.

Opposition agreed on unity candidate. Opposition coalition Unitary Platform 19 April announced it had reached agreement to support candidacy of retired diplomat Edmundo González in July poll. Zulia state governor Manuel Rosales, whose Un Nuevo Tiempo party (Platform member) had registered his candidacy unilaterally, stood down in favour of González, while banned candidate María Corina Machado 20 April pledged her support. Fears that govt would move to ban González or Unitary Platform’s ticket (known as MUD) did not immediately materialise as govt, after delay, eventually allowed parties that had backed Rosales to formalise their change of candidate. Decision to rally behind González raised hopes for more competitive presidential election in July. Meanwhile, Colombian President Petro 17 April told Brazilian President Lula that he had proposed “plebiscite” between govt and opposition guaranteeing protection from political persecution for poll’s loser.

U.S. reimposed oil sanctions but stopped short of full snapback. U.S. 17 April announced it would not renew General Licence 44, under which Venezuela could sell oil and gas on open market, though its replacement, GL-44a, leaves open option of licences for individual companies to do business with state oil corporation PDVSA. U.S. argued Maduro govt had “not fully met the commitments” it made under Oct 2023 Barbados Agreement with opposition; in particular, it said govt had “prevented the democratic opposition from registering the candidate of their choice, harassed and intimidated political opponents, and unjustly detained numerous political actors and members of civil society”. President Maduro and his chief negotiator Jorge Rodríguez same day said Washington, not Caracas, had failed to fulfil commitments, with Maduro claiming U.S. had promised to lift all sanctions during talks. U.S. Ambassador Francisco Palmieri 23 April said Washington would “keep channels open” for further talks. 

International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor to open office in capital. President Maduro 23 April signed agreement allowing ICC prosecutor Karim Khan to open office in capital Caracas and invited UN human rights officials (expelled in Jan) to return to Venezuela; terms for their return have yet to be agreed.

Authorities blocked opposition coalition from registering their banned candidate or her replacement in bid to clear field of President Maduro’s strongest opponents for presidential poll. 

Authorities blocked opposition from registering candidate for election. Govt-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) 5 March announced presidential poll would be held 28 July, resulting in election timetable compressed into under five months. Candidates 21-25 March registered their candidacy, leading to frenzied negotiations within opposition. Main opposition candidate María Corina Machado and opposition coalition Unitary Platform 22 March jointly announced that retired academic Corina Yoris would replace Machado as opposition’s unity candidate after govt refused to lift ban on her candidacy. Yet CNE, which had already annulled all but two of Unitary Platform’s parties, blocked Corina from registering, sparking outcry from opposition; move laid bare threat Machado and her substitute posed to Maduro if allowed to run. 

Opposition party within coalition unilaterally registered their candidate. CNE 26 March announced that Manuel Rosales, whose Un Nuevo Tiempo is one of Unitary Platform’s four main parties, had registered his candidacy; Rosales perceived as lesser threat to Maduro’s re-election prospects. Opposition negotiator Stalin González 26 March justified decision, saying opposition’s abstentionism in past polls had “left Venezuelans without an option”. Next day, however, Unitary Platform managed to register retired diplomat Edmundo González as placeholder unity candidate; substitution permitted until 20 April. Meanwhile, President Maduro 25 March registered his candidacy alongside a dozen others, many of whom are allied with govt or suspected of acting in its interests.

International community condemned govt. Regional govts, including oft-discreet Colombia and Brazil, and U.S. 26 March expressed concern about situation. U.S. set to decide by 18 April whether to snapback sanctions on oil and gas sectors in light of Maduro’s violations of govt-opposition agreement in Barbados, though re-imposition may be delayed or partial. 

In another important development. Lawmakers 21 March approved creation of new Venezuelan state in disputed Essequibo area, oil-rich region administered by Guyana, as govt used issue to foment nationalist sentiment; law also allows candidates for elected office to be barred for not supporting Venezuela’s claim.

As presidential poll inched closer, crackdown deepened with arrest of prominent activist and expulsion of UN human rights monitors; govt prepared electoral timetable. 

Authorities detained high-profile activist. Security forces 9 Feb arrested lawyer and human rights activist Rocío San Miguel at airport in capital Caracas, holding her for over three days incommunicado. Chief Prosecutor Tarek W. Saab 12 Feb announced San Miguel had been charged with treason and terrorism in connection with alleged plot to assassinate President Maduro. Rights groups and international actors, including U.S., demanded her release. Arrest of San Miguel, a moderate who heads an NGO focused on defence and security, seen as govt message that dissent will not be tolerated. Meanwhile, discussions in govt-controlled National Assembly to restrict, or even eliminate, NGOs continued. 

Govt expelled UN human rights monitors in further sign of crackdown. FM Gil 15 Feb announced govt had given officials at Caracas office of UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) 72 hours to leave country. Decision came after OHCHR 13 Feb said San Miguel’s detention could amount to forced disappearance and called for her “immediate release”; Gil said comments violated Venezuela’s sovereignty and that office had become “private law firm of coup plotters and terrorist groups”. Expulsion bodes ill for govt cooperation with other outside monitors, including potential EU election observation mission for 2024 presidential vote. 

Govt held consultations on electoral calendar. Govt-controlled National Assembly 5-16 Feb held consultations with political parties, businesses, unions and others to suggest date for presidential election; opposition coalition Unitary Platform 4 Feb declined invitation, saying meeting contravened Oct 2023 govt-opposition Barbados Agreement, in which sides agreed to “jointly” present election authority with their proposal; it accused govt of planning election without adequate guarantees for free and fair vote. Consultations led to proposal 28 Feb that includes over twenty potential dates for poll; electoral authorities to finalise date in March. 

In other important developments. Tensions with Guyana continued over contested Essequibo, oil-rich region currently administered by Guyana, with Caracas reportedly bolstering troops near border and Georgetown receiving increased military assistance from Washington. Russian FM Lavrov 20 Feb visited Caracas to reaffirm ties.

In blow to prospects for competitive election, Supreme Court upheld decision banning opposition’s candidate María Corina Machado from standing for office, while authorities cracked down on armed forces and civil society. 

Supreme Court reaffirmed opposition candidate’s ban from running for office. Despite govt-opposition agreement in Barbados in Oct 2023 to improve electoral conditions, govt-controlled Supreme Court 26 Jan upheld ban on opposition leader María Corina Machado’s candidacy, meaning she cannot run in 2024 presidential poll. Opposition coalition Unitary Platform dismissed decision as illegal and in breach of Barbados deal, while platform’s chief negotiator Gerardo Blyde appealed to presidents of France, Brazil and Colombia to convince Maduro to reverse it. EU and U.S. expressed deep concern, along with many of Venezuela’s neighbours; U.S. 29 Jan announced it will begin reinstating sanctions, having eased them following Barbados; govt next day called decision “blackmail”. 

Govt clamped down on security forces and civil society. Police 17 Jan raided office of teachers’ union in Barinas state (west) and arrested union leader Victor Venegas for alleged involvement in anti-govt conspiracy. Attorney General Tarek Saab 22 Jan announced authorities had arrested at least 32 civilians and former military personnel and issued warrants against eleven others for allegedly conspiring against govt in several different plots; govt claimed plans were backed by U.S. and implicated Machado. National Assembly 23 Jan approved law that could severely curtail activity and, in some instances, lead to closure of NGOs, sparking condemnation from civil society and human rights groups. 

Opposition prepared for 2024 elections despite uncertainty. Ahead of Supreme Court announcement, Machado 23 Jan announced alliance of political parties and civil society groups to organise electoral campaign and called on govt to announce exact date of poll. 

Caracas-Georgetown talks continued over disputed region. Govt and Guyana 25 Jan agreed to continue diplomatic efforts over contested Essequibo area, oil-rich region currently administered by Guyana, during talks in Brazilian capital Brasília.

Relations with Guyana remained tense after Caracas’ December referendum on disputed territory; Maduro administration continued to stall full implementation of Barbados deal with opposition.

Relations with Guyana remained tense despite agreement to avoid hostile acts. Maduro govt 3 Dec held referendum on policy toward contested Essequibo area, oil-rich region administered by Guyana, with voters answering affirmatively to all five questions on ballot, including whether they support non-recognition of International Court of Justice’s jurisdiction and creation of new Venezuelan state in disputed territory. Govt subsequently claimed binding mandate resulting from poll, ratcheting up tensions with neighbour. Maduro and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali 14 Dec met in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines under auspices of CELAC and CARICOM regional bodies and with UN, Brazilian and Colombian representatives; parties agreed not to “threaten or use force” and to establish joint commission to mutually “address matters” and report within three months. UK 24 Dec announced its warship would visit Guyana 29-31 Dec, however, prompting Venezuela 28 Dec to hold military exercises near disputed waters.

Govt-opposition tensions simmered ahead of 2024 elections. Flare-up with Guyana distracted attention from govt’s slow implementation of 17 Oct Barbados Agreement with opposition, with some progress but also attacks on opposition. Notably, Chief Prosecutor Tarek W. Saab 6 Dec announced arrest warrants for a dozen opposition activists; accused included three members of opposition presidential candidate María Corina Machado’s team and Roberto Abdul, head of NGO that Machado founded and member of opposition Primary Commission; authorities reportedly held Abdul incommunicado. In attempt to compete in next year’s polls, Machado 15 Dec appealed to govt-controlled Supreme Court to overturn ban from running for office, despite previously saying she would not.

Washington and Caracas agreed prisoner swap. U.S. official Brian Nichols 5 Dec said Washington continued to engage with Caracas and reiterated threat to reimpose sanctions if more prisoners were not released and Barbados conditions not fulfilled. Govt and U.S. 20 Dec announced prisoner swap, exchanging ten jailed Americans for Maduro ally Alex Saab, who was awaiting trial on money laundering charges; agreement also saw Abdul and twenty other Venezuelans released.

Fallout from govt’s suspension of opposition primary results continued, and tensions with Guyana ran high over Caracas’ upcoming referendum on disputed territory.

Govt-opposition tensions simmered over ban on presidential candidate. Tensions persisted over Supreme Court’s 30 Oct decision to suspend results of opposition primary, which María Corina Machado – currently banned from running for office – won in landslide victory. Govt-controlled Supreme Court in same ruling described bans on politicians as “firm”, fuelling concerns govt will not allow fair vote in 2024 poll; U.S. official Juan González 8 Nov said in interview with Colombian television that Washington would take steps to snapback sanctions, provisionally lifted 18 Oct following govt-opposition agreement in Barbados, if Maduro administration did not lift ban by end of month; in sign of slight easing tensions, govt and opposition joint statement 30 Nov said barred candidates would be able to appeal against bans 1-15 Dec. Earlier, govt’s chief negotiator and National Assembly president Jorge Rodríguez 17 Nov said govt would not accept “ultimatums from anyone”. EU, meanwhile, 13 Nov extended individual sanctions until May 2024; Rodríguez next day said govt would not invite EU to monitor elections while sanctions persist.

Tensions with Guyana escalated over disputed region. Tensions between Georgetown and Caracas spiked as latter prepared for 3 Dec referendum on contested Essequibo area, oil-rich region currently administered by Guyana. Plebiscite will ask Venezuelans if they agree to reject International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) jurisdiction over region, create state called Guayana Esequiba and grant its population Venezuelan citizenship. Guyana continued to protest referendum, claiming Maduro govt seeks to use vote to justify region’s “annexation”. U.S. defence officials 27-28 Nov visited country to “deepen partnership”.