CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Filters

Europe & Central Asia

Northern Ireland (UK)

Hoax bomb threat against Irish FM raised prospect of Loyalist groups escalating campaign against Northern Ireland Protocol. Paramilitary Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) 25 March reportedly coerced driver to transport hoax bomb to car park of Houben Centre in capital Belfast, where Irish FM Simon Conveney was attending peacebuilding event; security alert halted Conveney’s speech and evacuated him from location. Loyalists indicated in media reports that incident marked start of renewed campaign against Northern Ireland Protocol – post-Brexit arrangements for UK-EU trade that created regulatory border in Irish Sea. Protesters 25 March rallied in Ballymoney town demanding UK govt overturn protocol. Ulster Unionist Party leader Doug Beattie 27 March criticised anti-protocol rallies for “raising tensions” and acknowledged “media reports quoting UVF sources that they intend to escalate their terrorist activities in the coming weeks”.

Europe & Central Asia

Northern Ireland (UK)

Violent unrest erupted in capital Belfast and other cities against backdrop of rising unionist anger over controversial Northern Ireland Protocol. Unrest 2-9 April broke out across several cities, reportedly leaving at least 90 police officers injured; violence erupted amid rising discontent within unionist community over Northern Ireland Protocol – provision of UK-EU “Brexit” agreement in effect since 1 Jan 2020 that created regulatory border in Irish Sea – as well as anger over Public Prosecution Service’s late March decision not to prosecute Sinn Fein politicians who attended funeral last summer in violation of COVID-19 restrictions on large gatherings. Notably, groups of predominantly youths 2 April assaulted police officers, injuring 12 in Londonderry city; next day highjacked and set alight three vehicles and threw over 30 petrol bombs at police in Newtownabbey town. In capital Belfast, authorities 2 April arrested eight individuals, including 13-year-old boy, after youth groups attacked police officers in historically loyalist area. Group mostly encompassing youths 7 April highjacked and set bus on fire at intersectional area between nationalist and unionist communities; 8 April threw petrol bombs at police officers who deployed water cannons for first time in six years. First Minister Arlene Foster 7 April condemned violence, stating actions “do not represent unionism or loyalism”. Loyalist Communities Council, umbrella group representing paramilitary groups, 9 April said there had been “spectacular collective failure” to understand scale and nature of unionist and loyalist anger and called for new protocol to be negotiated. In letter to UK PM Boris Johnson, four former Northern Ireland secretaries of state voiced concerns over violence and risk that situation could “fall over” unless UK govt took urgent action. Following letter signed by 21 Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) representatives 27 April expressing no confidence in Arlene Foster, Foster 28 April announced intention to step down as DUP leader and first minister in May and June, respectively.

Europe & Central Asia

Northern Ireland (UK)

Loyalist paramilitary groups temporarily withdrew support for Good Friday Agreement. Loyalist Communities Council (LCC), umbrella group representing paramilitary groups, 3 March temporarily withdrew support for 1998 Good Friday Agreement in protest of Northern Ireland Protocol – provision of UK-EU “Brexit” agreement in effect since 1 Jan 2020 that creates regulatory border in Irish Sea; Chairman of LCC David Campbell warned that EU and UK would be “responsible for the permanent destruction of agreement” if not honoured in its entirety. Campbell 19 March warned that if “core guarantees” were not honoured, this would lead “to significant protest, to the bringing down of the Northern Ireland executive and then into significant political crisis”.

Europe & Central Asia

Northern Ireland (UK)

Controversial Northern Ireland Protocol faced criticism amid warnings from Unionist leaders of potential return to violence. Amid growing disquiet surrounding Northern Ireland Protocol – provision of UK-EU “Brexit” agreement in effect since 1 Jan 2020 that creates regulatory border in Irish Sea – former Northern Ireland First Minister and co-architect of 1998 Good Friday Agreement David Trimble 20 Feb warned that “there is real potential for those who have engaged in past violence to take action again into their own hands” if protocol is allowed to stand; Trimble criticised protocol, saying it means “Northern Ireland is no longer fully part of the UK”. First Minister Arlene Foster 25 Feb met with Loyalist Community Council (LCC), organisation representing loyalist paramilitary groups; LCC chairman David Campbell 3 Feb said it may be necessary for loyalists “to fight physically to maintain our freedoms within the UK.” Chief Constable Simon Byrne 4 Feb warned of “increasingly febrile” rhetoric around protocol.

Europe & Central Asia

Northern Ireland (UK)

Low-level political tensions continued. Groups of youths and police 8 Aug clashed in west of regional capital Belfast after police attempted to remove inflammatory material used for bonfires that were held in some republican areas to mark anniversary of introduction of internment which led to mass arrests without trial of hundreds of suspected members of Irish Republican Army (IRA) in August 1971. Police mid-Aug launched joint security operation with Republic of Ireland police that led to arrest of ten suspected members of dissident republican group “New IRA”.

Europe & Central Asia

Northern Ireland (UK)

Man 16 June hospitalised in west Belfast after sustaining gunshot wound to leg following what police described as paramilitary-style attack.

Europe & Central Asia

Northern Ireland (UK)

Police 8 May warned journalists from Sunday Life and Sunday World newspapers that loyalist paramilitary group Ulster Defence Association had planned attacks against them, reportedly over their coverage of paramilitary activity; local politicians who condemned planned attacks against reporters also received threats. Suspected dissident republicans 17 May murdered man in his home in west Belfast. Police 28 May reported hospitalisation of young man following “paramilitary-style” shooting in west Belfast.

Europe & Central Asia

Northern Ireland (UK)

National Union of Journalists 8 April condemned threats of violence toward journalist from Irish News by suspected dissident Republicans. Police 19 April launched investigations into two separate paramilitary-style attacks in east Belfast and Coleraine in which two men were hospitalised.

Europe & Central Asia

Northern Ireland (UK)

Police 18 March reported hospitalisation of two men following two “paramilitary-style” attacks in Creggan area of Londonderry and town of Ballymena.

Europe & Central Asia

Northern Ireland (UK)

Deputy leader of Sinn Féin Michelle O’Neill 11 Jan said she and her party “will not be deterred” following warnings by police that dissident republicans are planning attacks against her and Northern Ireland Assembly member Gerry Kelly.

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.