CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Filters

Latin America & Caribbean

El Salvador

President Bukele and his Nuevas Ideas party won landslide victory in elections marred by irregularities; authorities once again extended state of exception. 

Bukele secured presidency amid irregularities in vote count. Salvadorans 4 Feb cast their votes in elections to select president and congress, with Bukele on ballot despite constitution prohibiting immediate presidential re-election. As expected, electoral tribunal 9 Feb announced Bukele won with 82.66% of votes, 18 Feb declared his Nuevas Ideas party had secured 54 congressional seats out of 60. Election marred by irregularities, however, leading to allegations of fraud ostensibly aimed at making sure Nuevas Ideas secured large congressional majority. Notably, electronic electoral system failed, leading to manual vote count that Electoral Tribunal president Dora Martinez 6 Feb suggested could have been intentional. Several opposition parties 19 Feb claimed to have documented dozens of “anomalies” during count, including system failures when inputting opposition votes and duplication of votes in favour of Nuevas Ideas. However, Electoral Tribunal 22 Feb rejected petition by opposition parties to annul elections. Organization of American States’ Electoral Observation Mission 21 Feb said that, despite electoral process being “deficient, slow and disorganised”, results reflected will of voters. 

Authorities extended state of exception as mass trials continued. Legislative Assembly 9 Feb extended state of exception for additional thirty days. Earlier, Salvadoran courts 8 Feb began mass trials against 492 Mara Salvatrucha gang leaders, which human rights organisations have said violate due process and right to legal defence. Meanwhile, former national security advisor Alejandro Muyshondt, accused of being a double agent and sharing confidential information, 7 Feb died in state custody; his lawyer and mother 9 Feb claimed he had been tortured.

Latin America & Caribbean

El Salvador

President Bukele looked set for re-election in February; Minister of Justice announced start of trials against gang leadership as authorities again renewed state of exception. 

Poll suggested Bukele poised for victory in Feb election. Salvadorans will head to polls on 4 Feb to elect president, vice-president and legislative assembly, with possible runoff in March if no presidential candidate secures over 50% of vote. This appeared unlikely, however, after Francisco Gavidia University Centre for Citizen Studies 16 Jan presented their final poll prior to election day, which gave Bukele (who is constitutionally banned from seeking immediate re-election) 71% lead over his nearest rivals. 

Authorities renewed state of exception as trials of gang leadership began. Congress 9 Jan extended state of exception until 10 Feb amid continued criticism from human rights groups. Minister of Justice Gustavo Villatoro 4 Jan declared that El Salvador’s 2023 homicide rate was lowest in Latin America; he added that authorities had arrested 75,163 “terrorists” under measure and that approximately 18,000-20,000 gang members are still at large. Trial to prosecute 494 gang leaders 22 Jan commenced. Meanwhile, Legislative Assembly 3 Jan approved reform granting Attorney General capacity to declare persons or entities “national terrorists”, and to petition for their inclusion on UN Security Council terrorist list.

Latin America & Caribbean

El Salvador

Claudia Rodríguez became interim president as 2024 election cycle kicked off, and govt again extended state of exception.

Presidential designee appointed as Bukele stepped back for election campaign. President Bukele and VP Ulloa 1 Dec began leave of absence to focus on electoral campaign ahead of Feb 2024 presidential poll. Bukele ally Claudia Rodríguez, who independent media outlet Gato Encerrado previously accused of corruption, same day became interim president. At request of women candidates facing online harassment, Supreme Electoral Tribunal 5 Dec began investigating political violence against Nuestro Tiempo and ARENA political parties.

Emergency security measures extended amid human rights violations. Authorities 6 Dec extended state of exception for 21st time amid more concerns about human rights abuses under measures. Notably, NGOs Movement of Victims of the Regime and Humanitarian Legal Aid 3 Dec discovered four more people had died in prison, none of whom had been sentenced; according to NGOs, around 200 people have died in prison. Human rights monitor Amnesty International 5 Dec warned El Salvador “is experiencing an alarming regression in the respect for and protection of human rights”.

In other important developments. Bukele 1 Dec announced construction of National Stadium and Library with Chinese funding, signalling deepening ties. Court 22 Dec ordered arrest of former president Alfredo Cristiani for alleged cover-up in relation to 1981 El Mozote massacre during civil war.

Latin America & Caribbean

El Salvador

Justice system struggled under state of exception, and Congress granted President Bukele leave of absence to contest Feb 2024 polls.

Authorities renewed state of exception amid concerns of violations in prisons. Legislative Assembly 8 Nov extended state of exception for twentieth time. Mass arrests put pressure on justice system, with 85% of 5,000 people released from prison between March 2022 and July 2023 still awaiting trial. Human rights organisations continued to denounce violations in prison. Notably, NGO Cristosal 1 Nov reported that 191 persons had died in custody since March 2022. Meanwhile, authorities in Mexico 8 Nov arrested Salvadoran MS-13 gang leader Elmer Canales, 9 Nov extradited him to U.S.; U.S. claimed authorities released him from prison in El Salvador in Jan 2021, boosting claims widely reported in Salvadoran media that President Bukele negotiated directly with gangs to reduce violence.

Election Tribunal approved Bukele’s bid for second term. Electoral Tribunal - which is elected by govt-controlled Congress – 3 Nov approved President Bukele’s candidacy for 2024 presidential election despite constitutional ban on consecutive presidential re-election. Bukele 28 Nov said he would ask Congress for leave of absence from presidency for six months to allow him to run; Congress 30 Nov granted permission for period 1 Dec to 31 May 2024, with current head of National Directorate of Municipal Works due to replace Bukele in his duties.

Latin America & Caribbean

El Salvador

Concerns about human rights violations, including sexual and gender-based violence, under state of exception persisted.

Govt denied allegations of rights violations under state of exception. Legislative Assembly 12 Oct extended state of exception for 19th time, with VP of assembly claiming that human rights violations committed during measure were isolated incidents. Despite claims, civil society organisations and journalists continued to document cases of arbitrary arrests and torture, and shed light on conditions within prisons. Notably, coalition of human rights organisations 18 Oct estimated inmate population of 1,620 people per 100,000, translating into 148% overcrowding rate. Meanwhile, military 11 Oct sent 3,500 soldiers into Apopa municipality, San Salvador department (centre), amid ongoing efforts to root out gangs.

Women’s groups spotlighted sexual violence at hands of military and police. Following late Sept charges brought against six soldiers involved in rape of minor, military and police came under scrutiny for abuse of power and allegations of rape from within their ranks. Notably, several feminist groups 18 Oct protested in front of army headquarters, accusing military and police of using state of exception to act with impunity; they reported, for example, that one soldier had raped an eight-year-old girl in Bajo Lempa area, Usulutan department (south east).

In other important developments. Govt and opposition 3 Oct began campaigns for Feb 2024 general elections, which President Bukele is expected to win; Bukele 26 Oct officially registered as candidate despite constitutional ban on consecutive presidential re-election.

Latin America & Caribbean

El Salvador

Govt introduced initiative to combat poverty, while officials defended President Bukele’s re-election bid.

Bukele launched phase six of his security plan amid ongoing anti-gang efforts. Legislative Assembly 12 Sept extended state of exception for 18th time upon Defence Minister Monroy’s request. Bukele 15 Sept announced phase six of his anti-gang Territorial Control Plan, dubbed “integration”; under this phase, authorities will create Directorate for National Integration to combat poverty with budget of $30mn; several other bodies, including Salvadoran Institute of Professional Formation and National Youth Institute, will now fall under Directorate for National Integration. Bukele 19 Sept defended anti-gang efforts at UN, saying security “results” were “irrefutable”. Several media sources late Sept reported confidential police document from 1 Sept showed nearly 43,000 people allegedly connected to gangs yet to be detained.

Govt defended Bukele’s re-election bid. As Feb 2024 polls drew closer, ruling party Nuevas Ideas’ continued to face accusations that its nomination of Bukele and VP Félix Ulloa as presidential and vice-presidential candidates violates constitutional ban on consecutive presidential re-election. Ulloa continued to describe re-election attempt as “second mandate” rather than re-election. Electoral authorities appear set on allowing Bukele’s re-run after Supreme Electoral Tribunal Magistrate Noel Orellana 31 Aug said only four of five magistrate votes are required to allow Bukele’s re-run; just one magistrate has said he will vote “in accordance with the constitution”.

Latin America & Caribbean

El Salvador

Govt’s hardline security policies continued to fuel concern among rights groups.

Authorities carried out massive security operation amid anti-gang efforts. In one of biggest military operations since President Bukele first declared state of exception in March 2022, govt 1 Aug deployed 7,000 soldiers and 1,000 police officers to Cabañas department (north) to tackle “terrorist cells”. While previous raids had focused on particular communities, Cabañas became first full department to be placed under siege as authorities arrested scores and seized dozens of weapons. Meanwhile, Legislative Assembly 9 Aug approved state of exception’s 17th extension until 13 Sept. Authorities 22 Aug announced 7,000 of 72,000 people detained under measure had been released.

Rights groups kept condemning security measures. Civil society organisations, including Movimiento de Víctimas del Regimen and Institute of Human Rights of the University of Central America, continued to denounce persecution, harassment and abuses under state of exception. Former Supreme Court of Justice magistrate Sidney Blando 1 Aug said no judicial independence existed in El Salvador. Andrés Guzman, appointed to Commission for Human Rights and Freedom of Expression by Bukele, 7 Aug defended administration.

Latin America & Caribbean

El Salvador

Ruling party named President Bukele as their candidate for 2024 presidential poll, and Congress voted to allow mass trials for alleged gang members.

Political parties held primaries to select candidates for Feb 2024 general election. Ruling party Nuevas Ideas 9 July nominated Bukele and VP Félix Ulloa as presidential and vice presidential candidates in Feb 2024 poll despite constitutional ban on consecutive presidential re-election; should Salvadorans vote for Nuevas Ideas, Bukele will be able to further consolidate power at all levels of govt. Two main opposition parties – conservative ARENA and leftist FMLN – 16 July announced Joel Sánchez and Manuel Flores as their respective candidates, with Hilcia Bonilla and Werner Marroquin as running mates.

Congress passed legislation enabling mass trials for alleged gang members. Legislative Assembly 12 July approved state of exception’s sixteenth extension. Congress 26 July passed bill allowing courts to try alleged gang members in mass trials and increasing sentences for gang leaders from 45 to 60 years; up to 900 people can now be tried simultaneously if they hail from same region or are accused of belonging to same criminal group. Civil society and international bodies continued to raise concerns about human rights abuses under state of exception. Notably, a coalition of human rights groups 14 July denounced govt for third time at Inter-American Commission of Human Rights over arrest of innocent people and deaths of inmates; govt denied allegations.

Latin America & Caribbean

El Salvador

President Bukele slashed size of Congress and number of municipalities, raising fears govt is consolidating power ahead of 2024 polls; authorities put pressure on former officials accused of corruption.

Govt enacted number of administrative-political reforms. During State of the Union address on 1 June, President Bukele announced reorganisation of govt: reduction of municipalities from 262 to 44; reduction of legislative assembly from 84 seats to 60; and “war on corruption”. Following speech, govt 7 June passed law slimming Congress down to 60 deputies, 14 June reduced number of municipalities to 44. Opposition politicians warned move concentrates power in hands of ruling party Nuevas Ideas ahead of Feb 2024 presidential, legislative and local elections; Nuevas Ideas 26 June announced Bukele had registered to run for re-election, despite constitutional ban on consecutive presidential re-election. Meanwhile, Legislative Assembly 14 June approved state of exception’s fifteenth extension amid human rights concerns.

Judicial proceedings against former officials accused of corruption continued. Attorney General 6 June charged former President Alfredo Cristiani in connection with 1989 massacre of six Jesuit priests and two women. National Civilian Police director 6 June announced politicians and journalists involved in 2012 “gang truce” talks will face judicial proceedings. Attorney General 17 June announced money laundering charges against former Defence Minister David Munguía Payes, sentenced in May to 18 years in prison for having conducted truce negotiations with criminal groups in 2012.

Latin America & Caribbean

El Salvador

Authorities renewed state of exception as crackdown on gangs continued, and court handed down lengthy prison sentence to former president for ties to gangs.

Security forces fenced off community after suspected gang members killed officer. As Legislative Assembly 16 May approved state of exception’s 14th extension, presumed gang members same day killed officer in Nueva Conception municipality (Chalatenango department); authorities 17 May deployed 500 police and 5,000 soldiers to area and installed fence around perimeter, making Nueva Conception fifth municipality to be cordoned off since President Bukele late 2022 announced phase 5 of Territorial Control Plan, intended to “extract every last terrorist from the communities of El Salvador”. Meanwhile, NGO Cristosal 29 May said at least 153 people had died in custody since state of exception began in March 2022.

Court sentenced former president for illicit association with gangs. Trial proceeded against former President Mauricio Funes and former Justice and Security Minister David Munguía Payés, accused of “illicit association” and “breach of duties” during 2012-2014 gang truce, notably making “pact” with gangs. Former director of State Intelligence Service José Ricardo Perdomo 3 May testified that Funes knew of “irregular conditions” inside prisons, such as mediators entering without registering, deactivation of cell phone signals and gang leaders’ transfer to other prison facilities with lower security measures. Court 29 May sentenced Funes and Munguía to 14 and 18 years in prison, respectively.

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.