Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for deadliest terrorist attack on Russian soil in over two decades, days after President Putin won re-election; Ukrainian attacks intensified.

Terrorist attack in Moscow killed and wounded hundreds. Militants 22 March entered concert hall in capital Moscow, opening fire and setting premises ablaze. ISIS immediately claimed responsibility for attack, which killed at least 143 people and wounded hundreds more. Authorities swiftly announced number of arrests, including four Tajik citizens suspected of perpetrating attack, who 24 March appeared in court bearing signs of abuse. Putin 25 March suggested “radical Islamists” carried out attack but insinuated Ukrainian and Western involvement, a claim echoed by top officials; such suggestions could lay groundwork for Kremlin to justify future aggression in Ukraine. Kyiv repeatedly denied any role.

Putin secured fifth presidential term. Russia 15-17 March held presidential election. According to official data, poll saw record turnout and landslide victory for Putin. Opposition 17 March organised “Noon Against Putin” rally; according to campaign website, thousands were to head to polling stations across Russia at midday to “show others and see for ourselves that there are many of us”, while remaining concealed from authorities.

Ukraine launched cross-border incursions and more drone attacks. Three Ukrainian army units that include Russian nationals 10 March began conducting cross-border incursions into Belgorod and Kursk regions, which continued sporadically throughout March; Russian forces repelled attacks. Ukraine intensified shelling of Belgorod’s capital and other populated areas in region, killing over sixteen and wounding scores; governor of Belgorod 19 March announced evacuation of 9,000 children. Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries and other infrastructure persisted.

EU imposed more punitive measures. EU High Representative Josep Borrel 18 March said EU should use 90% of revenues from frozen Russian assets in Europe to buy weapons for Ukraine, announced sanctions on 30 Russian officials over death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. European Commission 22 March proposed increasing tariffs on grain imports from Russia and Belarus to reassure farmers and some member states concerned about influx of cheap Ukrainian products.

Opposition leader Alexei Navalny died in penal colony weeks before presidential election, Moscow reiterated openness for Ukraine talks but on its terms, and West imposed more sanctions. 

Opposition leader died in prison. Weeks before 15-17 March presidential election, Alexei Navalny 16 Feb died in penal colony in northern Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, dealing blow to already weak opposition. Cause of death unknown, though opposition abroad and Navalny’s wife Yulia Navalnaya blamed President Putin. Commemorative rallies held 16-19 Feb in 39 cities; authorities detained 397 people. Navalnaya 19 Feb vowed to continue her husband’s work. Meanwhile, Election Commission 8 Feb refused to register opposition presidential hopeful Boris Nadezhdin’s candidacy for election. 

Russia alleged openness for Ukraine talks. As Russia gained battlefield momentum in Ukraine (see Ukraine), Putin 8 Feb expressed willingness for talks and claimed Kyiv refused negotiations with Moscow “under instructions from Washington”. FM Lavrov 14 Feb said Moscow was ready to settle conflict if Ukraine takes into account ground realities. During 29 Feb annual state-of-the-nation address, Putin praised battlefield advances in Ukraine and stated readiness for dialogue with U.S.; he also warned of “tragic” consequences should NATO military contingents be sent to Ukraine, after French President Macron 26 Feb refused to rule out sending troops there. Meanwhile, media company Bloomberg 20 Feb reported that U.S. told allies Russia is developing nuclear anti-satellite weapon, which could be launched into space in 2024. 

Ukraine war continued to be felt at home. Drone strikes targeting oil infrastructure continued, shelling into Belgorod region 15 Feb killed seven. Deputy Chairman of Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev 19 Feb claimed military had recruited 53,000 personnel since 1 Jan 2024. According to 15 Feb report by media outlet The New York Times, U.S. estimated roughly 300,000 Russian soldiers killed or injured since full-scale invasion. Mothers and wives of mobilised soldiers 3 Feb protested in capital Moscow, calling for return of soldiers from frontline. 

Western countries imposed more sanctions. EU 21 Feb agreed 13th sanctions package, U.S. 23 Feb announced over 500 new sanctions. Moscow 13 Feb added Estonia’s PM and others on wanted list.

Russian leaders alleged readiness for Ukraine peace talks but on their terms, Kyiv intensified drone attacks, and Bashkortostan region witnessed large-scale protests over jailed activist. 

Moscow accused Kyiv of hindering peace efforts, attacks into Russia persisted. Speaking in Moscow region about Ukraine war, President Putin 16 Jan dismissed Kyiv’s “peace formulas” and said Russia would not give up occupied territories. In further sign Kremlin is only prepared to negotiate on its terms, FM Lavrov 22 Jan said Russia was ready for talks but that Kyiv seeks to “perpetuate the war”; he added that Western aid to Ukraine complicates search for peace. Meanwhile, Ukraine stepped up drone attacks into Russia, notably targeting oil infrastructure. Ukrainian forces 14 Jan shot down early warning and control aircraft A-50 over Sea of Azov and damaged Il-22M aircraft, killing unknown number. Moscow and Kyiv traded blame for downed plane in Russia’s Belgorod region 24 Jan that left 74 dead, including 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war. 

Anti-war presidential candidate saw surge of support. As March election drew closer, anti-war presidential hopeful Boris Nadezhdin 25 Jan said he had collected around 200,000 signatures endorsing his candidacy, double amount required for him to run in poll, 31 Jan submitted application to Central Election Commission to run. Two other candidates 30 Jan withdrew from race and endorsed Putin. 

Thousands protested in Bashkortostan in support of jailed activist. Protest 15 Jan took place in Baymak city of Bashkortostan region against trial of Fail Alsynov, environmental activist and campaigner for preservation of Bashkir language and culture. Authorities 17 Jan sentenced Alsynov to four years in prison for “inciting hatred”, prompting more protests that led to clashes with police. Despite warnings from authorities, protesters 19 Jan rallied again in Ufa city. 

Russia allegedly acquired Iranian and North Korean weapons. U.S. 4 Jan said Russia used North Korean ballistic missiles to strike Ukraine (see Ukraine), while UK 22 Jan presented fresh evidence to UN indicating transfer of North Korean weapons to Russia. Sky News 10 Jan claimed Iran has developed new attack drone and appears close to providing Moscow with surface-to-surface missiles.

President Putin reiterated objectives of war in Ukraine, campaign for presidential election in March 2024 kicked off, and Kyiv shelled Belgorod city in largest attack since full-scale invasion.

Putin confirmed Russia’s goals in Ukraine remain unchanged. In televised press conference, Putin 14 Dec proclaimed there will only be peace in Ukraine “when we achieve our goals”, which remain “Ukraine’s denazification, demilitarisation and neutral status”; he said 617,000 military personnel are in combat zone, of which 244,000 are mobilised soldiers. Putin 19 Dec reiterated remarks during meeting with top defence officials, said Moscow is upgrading its nuclear arsenal as west wages “hybrid war” against it but emphasised Russia will not attack NATO countries. Meanwhile, mothers and wives of mobilised soldiers organised more protests during month, 18 Dec called on Putin to end war for first time.

Putin announced presidential bid. Federation Council 7 Dec approved resolution setting date of presidential election for 17 March 2024. Putin next day announced bid for fifth presidential term; ten others announced their participation in poll, though some have yet to collect enough signatures to run. Independent candidate Yekaterina Duntsova, who has called for end to Ukraine conflict, announced bid but authorities 27 Dec barred her from running. Team of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny 7 Dec sponsored billboards in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other Russian cities urging Russians not to vote for Putin.

Kyiv launched deadliest attack on Belgorod since full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine 30 Dec attacked Belgorod city in heaviest shelling of Russian city since full-scale invasion, killing at least 24 and injuring over 100; Putin promised to retaliate (see Ukraine). Meanwhile, Freedom of Russia Legion (Russian combatants fighting for Ukraine) 17 Dec claimed responsibility for cross-border attack into Belgorod region. Former Ukrainian parliamentarian Ilya Kiva, who fled to Russia early 2022 ahead of full-scale invasion, was shot dead 6 Dec in Moscow region; media reports alleged Ukrainian special services carried out operation.

Japan and EU introduced further sanctions on Russia. Japan 15 Dec imposed new sanctions against Russia. EU 18 Dec adopted twelfth sanctions package; Russia next day expanded list of EU representatives banned from entering country.

Moscow withdrew from several arms treaties and announced record military expenditures in 2024; Finland closed border with Russia.

Russia withdrew from two arms treaties, ramped up military spending. President Putin 2 Nov signed legislation revoking ratification of Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, though Russian officials reportedly said withdrawal did not mean Russia would resume nuclear testing; Russia 7 Nov withdrew from Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty. State Duma 17 Nov approved 2024 federal budget, which devotes record 10.8tn rubles (approximately $119bn) to defence compared with 6.4tn rubles (approximately $71bn) in 2023. Police conducted raids to draft new army recruits, particularly targeting migrants; notably, police in Voronezh city 14 Nov raided restaurant hosting group of Azerbaijani immigrants and handed around 50 summonses to military enlistment offices.

Crackdown continued, notably targeting war opponents and LGBTQ+ community. Wives of mobilised soldiers 7 Nov staged protest calling on authorities to demobilise their husbands who, according to Putin’s mobilisation decree, could remain in military service until end of so-called special operation in Ukraine. Court in Saint Petersburg city 16 Nov sentenced artist Aleksandra Skochilenko to seven years’ imprisonment for spreading disinformation or “fakes” about Russian army; court in Moscow same day sentenced opposition politician Vladimir Milov in absentia to eight years in prison, also for “fakes”. Meanwhile, Supreme Court 30 Nov labelled “international LGBT movement” as “extremist”, banned activities; UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk same day “deplored” decision, called on authorities to repeal laws that place “improper restrictions on the work of human rights defenders or that discriminate against LGBT people”.

Finland closed checkpoints along border with Russia, Ukrainian strikes continued. Finland 22 Nov announced closure of all but one of its border crossings with Russia beginning 24 Nov, accusing its neighbour of purposely pushing asylum seekers toward border; 28 Nov closed last border crossing point, saying closure would last until 13 Dec and banned filing of requests for “international protection” at border. Meanwhile, authorities 26 Nov announced its air defences had intercepted Ukrainian drones over several regions, including Moscow, day after Kyiv reported one of biggest drone attacks since full-scale invasion (see Ukraine).

Antisemitic attacks left dozens injured in North Caucasus, Moscow moved to withdraw from nuclear test ban treaty, and Ukrainian strikes continued.

Antisemitic violence erupted in North Caucasus. Amid worrying escalation in Israel-Palestine (see Israel/Palestine), several hundred residents 28 Oct demonstrated outside hotel in Dagestan Republic’s Khasavyurt city following rumours Israeli refugees were staying there; crowd dispersed but notice appeared at hotel saying “entrance is strictly prohibited for foreign citizens of Israel (Jews)”. Hundreds 29 Oct stormed airport in Dagestan’s Makhachkala city to search for Jewish passengers arriving from Israeli city Tel Aviv, clashing with security forces and leaving over twenty injured; authorities arrested 60 people. In Kabardino-Balkaria Republic, unknown assailants 29 Oct set fire to Jewish cultural centre in capital Nalchik and wrote “death to Jews” on wall. President Putin 30 Oct blamed West and Ukraine for helping stoke unrest.

Moscow moved to reverse nuclear test ban ratification and unveiled new missiles. Putin 5 Oct raised possibility of withdrawing ratification of Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, citing U.S. failure to ratify. Russia’s envoy to Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization Mikhail Ulyanov next day confirmed plans, saying it “doesn’t mean the intention to resume nuclear tests”. State Duma and Federation Council 18, 25 Oct respectively approved bill to withdraw ratification. Meanwhile, Putin 5 Oct announced “successful” test of Burevestnik cruise missile and completion of Sarmat super-heavy intercontinental ballistic missile.

Ukrainian strikes into Russia persisted. Russia faced more Ukrainian attacks, particularly targeting border regions. Notably, military 4 Oct shot down 31 unmanned aerial vehicles in Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions. Belgorod regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov 12 Oct reported fallen drone killed three civilians in Belgorod city. Ministry of Defence 18 Oct announced air defences had shot down 28 drones over Belgorod, Kursk and Black Sea; Ukrainian media outlets same day claimed at least eighteen drones struck military camp near Khalino airfield in Kursk.

Authorities arrested Alexei Navalny’s lawyers. Crackdown on dissent continued. Notably, authorities 13 Oct detained three lawyers representing imprisoned opposition politician Alexei Navalny on charges of participation in “extremist community”; 26 Oct charged Russian-American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva for violating “foreign agents” law.

Ruling party claimed sweeping victory in local elections held across Russia and in occupied Ukrainian territory, drone attacks continued, and North Korea’s leader made surprise visit.

Ruling party won big in regional and municipal elections. Russians 8-10 Sept cast their ballots for regional governors, regional legislatures, and city and municipal councils. President Putin’s United Russia party won 15 out of 16 elections for regional legislative assemblies and every provincial governor’s race aside from Republic of Khakassia, which re-elected Communist party governor Valentin Konovalov. Russia also held elections in four partially occupied regions of Ukraine, announcing ruling party victory and prompting outrage from Kyiv and its allies. Meanwhile, crackdown on dissent persisted; notably, Justice Ministry 1 Sept added Novaya Gazeta editor-in-chief and Nobel Prize winner Dmitry Muratov to its list of foreign agents.

Ukraine’s campaign of aerial strikes continued. Ukrainian drone attack 7 Sept caused explosion near military headquarters in Rostov region’s Rostov-on-Don city; Kursk region witnessed multiple drone attacks. Notably regional governor 16 Sept announced that strike on Plekhovo village killed one; drone 20 Sept hit oil depot in Sochi city’s Adler district, 25km from Putin’s Sochi residence; and drone attack 25 Sept destroyed several buildings. Meanwhile, reports 4 Sept surfaced claiming authorities had released General Surovikin, detained after Wagner mutiny in June; two days later, Commonwealth of Independent States reportedly appointed Surovikin head of air defence committee.

President Putin held summit with North Korea’s leader. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un 12-18 Sept made surprise trip to Russia and 13 Sept met with Putin at Cosmodrome Vostochny space launch centre for talks. Sides did not provide details on concrete agreements, but Putin later confirmed readiness to assist North Korea with its satellite program; in exchange, Russia is likely to receive ammunition for Ukraine war. Kim also visited Gagarin Aircraft Manufacturing Association, Sukhoi fighter jet production facility in Komsomolsk-on-Amur city and Pacific Fleet in Vladivostok city.

Several EU countries banned entry of Russian-registered cars. Poland 17 Sept joined Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland in banning entry of Russian-registered cars; Norway’s Foreign Ministry 19 Sept announced plans to introduce similar restrictions.

Authorities confirmed Wagner chief’s death in plane crash amid speculation about Putin’s role; Ukraine intensified drone strikes on Russian territory.

Wagner boss killed in plane crash. Authorities 27 Aug confirmed that head of paramilitary Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin, who staged failed mutiny in June, was killed 23 Aug in plane crash outside capital Moscow alongside nine others. U.S. 24 Aug said explosion on board likely brought down plane as number of Western intelligence assessments suggested President Putin may have ordered his death, which Kremlin 25 Aug denied. Meanwhile, Putin 23 Aug sacked Gen. Surovikin, ally of Prigozhin who many believe knew about plans for June insurrection and possibly aided him.

Ukraine conducted near-daily drone attacks on Russia. Ukraine intensified strikes on Russian territory, with largest drone attack since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine 29-30 Aug targeting seven regions. Among other notable incidents, aquatic drones 4 Aug struck Navy base in Black Sea port city of Novorossiysk; drones 19 Aug struck Soltsy airfield in northwestern Novgorod region; shelling in Belgorod region 23 Aug killed three; and shelling in Bryansk region left several people dead. Moscow targeted throughout month.

Rumours of possible mobilisation swirled. Bloomberg report 20 Aug revealed hardline members within Russia’s security apparatus are pushing for changes to army leadership (including dismissal of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valerii Gerasimov), declaration of martial law and introduction of full-scale mobilisation. Though Putin gave no indication he plans to take such steps, rumours of new mobilisation wave due to shortage of volunteers spread on social networks. Meanwhile, Putin 4 Aug signed into law measures to increase number of potential conscripts.

Crackdown on dissent continued, value of Russian ruble tumbled. Court 4 Aug sentenced imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny to 19 years in prison on extremism charges; authorities 17 Aug searched offices and homes of members of Golos movement, which monitors elections; and Moscow court 29 Aug sentenced in absentia investigator Ruslan Leviev and journalist Michael Naki to 11 years in prison for spreading disinformation or “fakes” about army. Meanwhile, Russian ruble 14 Aug hit 17-month low against dollar.

Kremlin clamped down on senior military officers following Wagner insurrection, Parliament passed raft of measures to strengthen mobilisation efforts, and Moscow withdrew from Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Authorities detained high-ranking officers in wake of Wagner mutiny. News outlet The Wall Street Journal 13 July reported that at least 13 high-ranking officers were detained following paramilitary Wagner Group’s short-lived mutiny in June, including Gen. Sergei Surovikin and Col. Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev. Paper also said Kremlin suspended or dismissed about 15 other officers. In further sign of cracks in security establishment, Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov 12 July announced he had been fired after criticising high command’s management of Ukraine war. Meanwhile, video published 19 July showed Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin addressing combatants in Belarus (see Belarus), saying mercenaries will remain in Belarus only temporarily before heading to Africa, though hinting they could eventually return to Ukraine.

Lawmakers extended eligibility for military service and approved creation of paramilitaries. State Duma 18 July approved bill raising age limit for reservists, 20 July increased fines for non-appearance at military enlistment office on demand and 25 July raised maximum age for military conscription from 27 to 30. Upper House of Parliament 28 July approved law allowing governors to create regional paramilitary units to assist security forces during mobilisation, wartime or periods of martial law; president will decide when to form or disband such units.

Fresh drones struck capital. Kremlin 24 July accused Kyiv of fresh drone attack on Moscow and promised retaliatory measures; two drones 30 July attacked govt complex, also in capital.

Moscow scuttled Black Sea grain deal. Russia 17 July withdrew from Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allowed safe passage for Ukrainian grain exports (see Ukraine). President Putin 19 July said Moscow could return to deal if Western states fulfil their obligations, including by unblocking Russian assets related to agriculture and reopening Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline. During Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg 27-28 July, representatives from five African countries publicly called for resumption of agreement; Putin 29 July pledged to ship 25-50,000 tonnes of grain free of charge to poorest countries in Africa within 3-4 months, but stopped short of promising return to initiative.

In most serious challenge ever to Putin’s grip on power, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin spearheaded insurrection, advancing within 200km of capital before abruptly aborting mission.

Wagner leader left Russia after short-lived mutiny rocked country. Amid months of escalating tensions between military leaders and head of paramilitary Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin, most recently over attempts to bring Wagner forces under military command structure, Prigozhin 23 June claimed defence ministry had killed around 30 Wagner fighters at a camp in Ukraine and vowed to topple military leadership. In dramatic escalation that raised questions about stability of Putin’s rule, Wagner forces 23-24 June entered southern Rostov-on-Don city, seizing control of key sites before advancing toward capital Moscow in armoured convoys, passing through Voronezh city. Putin 24 June decried Prigozhin’s “betrayal” and vowed to punish those involved as Wagner mercenaries shot down six helicopters and military airplane, killing 13. As Prigozhin’s forces entered Moscow region, he abruptly called off rebellion and reportedly went into exile following negotiations allegedly brokered by Belarussian leader Aleksandr Lukashenka (see Belarus). Kremlin same day said it would not prosecute Wagner members or Prigozhin; Putin 26 June said Wagner mercenaries can either go to Belarus or sign contract with Ministry of Defence.

Attacks on Belgorod persisted. Ukrainian shelling and attacks by Ukraine-aligned Russian combatants continued to target southern Belgorod region. Notably, combatants 1 June shelled Shebekinsky town, prompting evacuations from there and other vulnerable districts. Putin 13 June suggested he could order troops to seize more land in Ukraine to create “sanitary zone” protecting Russia from attack. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu 20 June accused Kyiv of plans to strike Russia with U.S.-made HIMARS and UK-made Storm Shadow Missiles, warning this would be considered “full-fledged [Western] involvement” and promising “retaliation”. Meanwhile, Putin 16 June announced first tactical nuclear weapons had arrived in Belarus (see Belarus).

Crackdown on dissent continued. Anti-war activist Anatoly Berezikov 14 June died in detention centre in Rostov-on-Don; his lawyer hinted death could be result of torture. Trial against imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who faces extremism charges, 19 June began behind closed doors. Authorities 21, 28 June declared World Wildlife Fund and news outlet Novaya Gazeta Europa, respectively, “undesirable”.