CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Filters

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Crackdown on dissent continued, ruling party claimed victory in regional polls, and Managua strengthened ties with China.

Crackdown on civil society and religious organisations persisted. Authorities 5 March closed fifteen NGOs and one university amid ongoing crackdown on civil society. Religious persecution also continued: according to report presented 6 March before Human Rights Council in Geneva, authorities have detained 55 religious figures and exiled 44 since April 2018. Regime 12 March proposed suspending relations with Vatican after Pope Francis 10 March called govt a “dictatorship” led by an “unbalanced” president. Authorities 27 March convicted eleven pastors who work with U.S.-based missionary group to between twelve and fifteen years in prison on money laundering charges.

Ruling party won local polls in autonomous Caribbean regions. Local elections 3 March took place in Nicaragua’s two autonomous regions, which are located along eastern Caribbean Coast and home to number of Indigenous groups. Ahead of poll, Inter-American Commission on Human Rights 23 Feb released report expressing concern about unfair electoral conditions, notably citing govt’s cancellation of Indigenous party YATAMA’s legal status and detention of party leaders, Brooklyn Rivera and Nancy Henriquez. Ruling party 4 March claimed victory in polls, which saw low turnout and were marked by incidents of violence and voter coercion around polling stations.

West imposed more restrictions on Nicaragua. U.S. 14 March imp0sed arms restrictions on Nicaragua, 21 March sanctioned Attorney General Wendy Carolina Morales Urbina for her role in govt’s “unjust persecution of political prisoners and civil society”. Amid growing pressure from West, Nicaragua continued to strengthen ties with China and Russia. Notably, delegation from Chinese People’s Association for Peace and Disarmament 11 March visited Nicaragua to strengthen cooperation. 

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

U.S. sanctioned 100 officials in response to govt crackdown; Managua granted asylum to Panama’s former president. 

Crackdown on religious organisations, civil society and opposition persisted. Inter-American Court of Human Rights 1 Feb called for immediate release of Brooklyn Rivera and Nancy Henriquez, Indigenous political leaders of outlawed Yatama party who have been detained since late 2023. Meanwhile, targeting of religious organisations and civil society continued. Notably, govt 6 Feb shuttered five evangelical NGOs; state’s official gazette 16 Feb reported closure of Scouting Association of Nicaragua alongside seven other NGOs, four of them religious, said authorities would confiscate assets of all eight groups. U.S. 16 Feb announced visa restrictions on over 100 Nicaraguan municipal officials, accusing them of supporting a regime that “continues to engage in a repressive campaign that silences civil society and unjustly detains courageous individuals for exercising their fundamental freedoms”. UN 29 Feb accused Nicaragua’s govt of “serious systematic human rights violations, tantamount to crimes against humanity”. 

In another important development. Ortega 7 Feb granted asylum to former Panamanian President Martinelli, whose July 2023 conviction for money laundering was upheld by Panama’s Supreme Court 2 Feb; move in line with Managua increasingly offering asylum to former Central American officials accused of corruption.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Govt released nineteen members of Catholic Church and handed them to Vatican; opposition leader suffered assassination attempt. 

Managua handed over nineteen religious leaders to Vatican. Pope Francis 1 Jan used New Year’s Day address to express concern about Ortega regime’s targeting of Catholic Church, saying he was “following with concern what is happening in Nicaragua, where bishops and priests have been deprived of their freedom”, and expressed hope for “dialogue to overcome difficulties”. Govt 14 Jan released nineteen jailed religious leaders, including Bishop Rolando Álvarez, following negotiations and handed them over to Vatican. Meanwhile, govt 16 Jan cancelled legal status of sixteen NGOs, some of them Catholic organisations. 

Opposition leader suffered assassination attempt. Unknown gunmen 10 Jan shot and wounded opposition leader Joao Ismael Maldonado Bermúdez, who has lived in Costa Rica since 2018 govt crackdown, and his partner; attack marked second assassination attempt on Maldonado since his exile. Members of Exiled Nicaraguans in Unity in Costa Rica 12 Jan attributed attack to “hired assassins” of regime.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Crackdown on church continued amid international condemnation over human rights violations, and Managua upgraded diplomatic ties with China.

Authorities arrested senior bishop amid continued attacks on Catholic Church. Police 21 Dec arrested Bishop Isidoro Mora of Siuna diocese in north west; Mora day prior had spoken publicly about Bishop Rolando Álvarez, first major clerical figure detained by govt and sentenced in Feb 2023 to 26 years in prison for treason. Authorities 20-30 Dec arrested thirteen priests and two Seminarians.

Ortega regime rejected accusations of human rights violations. UN Human Rights Council 18 Dec held special session on Nicaragua, where Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights Nada Al-Nashif asked Ortega govt to engage with her office and address human rights violations; govt rejected concerns as misinformation and foreign interference in domestic affairs. Nicaragua same day expelled International Committee of the Red Cross.

Beijing and Managua deepened ties. Nicaragua and China upgraded diplomatic ties, with pair 20 Dec announcing new strategic partnership; Chinese President Xi Jinping same day described move as beginning of relationship modelled on “solidarity, cooperation and mutual benefit”. Ortega and Xi also announced China-Nicaragua Free Trade Agreement will take effect 1 Jan 2024. Earlier, govt 4 Dec recalled Ambassador to Argentina after Argentinian President Javier Milei called Nicaraguan rulers “dictators”.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Govt dismissed hundreds of justice officials amid ongoing crackdown; ties with Russia and China deepened as Managua formally withdrew from Organization of American States (OAS).

Govt dismantled judiciary and continued crackdown on civil society. Govt late Oct dismissed President of Supreme Court and dozens of officials in justice system; by 6 Nov had removed 450 officers from posts, including four Supreme Court magistrates; media report 7 Nov suggested vacancies would be filled by loyalist politicians and former members of security forces. Govt 6 Nov proscribed 25 NGOs, including religious institutions and 27 Nov closed or dissolved fifteen others. Indigenous party YATAMA 13 Nov announced it did not know whereabouts of party leaders seized by security forces late Sept.

Managua strengthened ties with Russia and China, and withdrew from OAS. Commander of armed forces 7 Nov visited Russia to negotiate technical cooperation, reiterated support for Russia’s war against Ukraine. Economic Congressional Committee 14 Nov announced National Assembly would soon ratify Free Trade Agreement with China. Meanwhile, Nicaragua 19 Nov formally withdrew from OAS following two-year process launched in 2021 by Ortega regime in response to condemnation from body about rights violations. Ahead of withdrawal, OAS members 8 Nov approved resolution calling for continued monitoring of rights in country.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Govt continued to crackdown on opposition and Catholic Church despite sustained international condemnation.

Repression of opposition and Catholic church continued. Following late Sept arrest of Brooklyn Rivera, only indigenous parliament representative, Rivera’s YATAMA party 1 Oct denounced detention and that of fellow politician Nancy Rodriquez. Authorities 3 Oct rescinded YATAMA’s legal status and closed two YATAMA-run radio stations. Govt 12 Oct allocated Rivera’s seat to ruling party politician. Despite Vatican’s late Sept call for diplomatic dialogue, attacks on Catholic church continued. Notably, police and paramilitary groups 1-9 Oct detained six Catholic priests. Govt 18 Oct freed six priests and exiled them to Rome following deal with Vatican. Authorities 24 Oct cancelled legal status of local chapter of Franciscan order and 16 NGOs, many of whom have ties to Catholic Church.

International community kept up pressure on Managua. EU Council 9 Oct extended measures including asset freeze and travel bans on 21 individuals and three entities until Oct 2024. Inter-American Commission on Human Rights 10 Oct briefed Organization of American States (OAS) permanent council about situation in country, saying govt’s actions part of repressive strategy to consolidate power and silence critics. OAS next day condemned situation and called on govt to respect and protect human rights.

In another important development. Nicaraguan Central Bank 17 Oct announced reduction in imports and exports in first eight months of 2023 compared to same period in 2022.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Govt continued to stifle dissent and bolster ties with Russia and China amid worsening economic situation.

Repression of opposition, Catholic church and others continued. NGO Mechanism for the Recognition of Political Prisoners 9 Sept identified 89 political prisoners in country. Police 8 Sept arrested priest Osman José Amador Guillén after he expressed support for political prisoner Bishop Rolando Álvarez. Govt 19 Sept announced it had access to all student data from defunct Jesuit-run Central American University, raising concerns about potential harassment of student activists. Fears about treatment of media also increased after army chief 4 Sept labelled all journalists “mercenaries”; according to civil society report 11 Sept, 1,329 violations of press freedom were recorded in Nicaragua over past five years. Meanwhile, UN 11 Sept denounced increased violence against indigenous people in Nicaragua; unidentified settlers next day killed indigenous person in Mayangna Sauni As indigenous area on northern Caribbean coast; authorities 29 Sept arrested Brooklyn Rivera, only indigenous parliament representative, at his home in Bilwi city, Puerto Cabezas (north) on unknown charges.

Managua bolstered ties with China and Russia amid deteriorating economy. Report published by UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean 8 Sept highlighted 6% decrease in exports in first six months of 2023, leading to thousands of job losses. Govt continued to strengthen ties with China and Russia in its search for economic lifeline. Notably, parliament 1 Sept ratified free trade agreement with China; Ortega 12 Sept acknowledged Russian military base in Nicaragua is training security forces to fight opposition.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Govt crackdown on Catholic Church, political opposition and media persisted.

Authorities targeted Jesuit order amid crackdown on Catholic Church. Govt 9 Aug froze bank accounts and 16 Aug seized assets of Jesuit-run Central American University in capital Managua, accusing institution of being “centre of terrorism”; UN rights office and Jesuit movement same day criticised move. Govt 23 Aug declared Jesuit order illegal and ordered confiscation of all its property over alleged tax reporting issues. U.S. 19 Aug announced sanctions on 100 municipal officials for role in suppression of Catholic Church.

Repression of opposition and independent media continued. Police 2 Aug arrested opposition leader Juan Carlos Baquedano Castro upon his return from exile in Mexico, next day apprehended opposition activist Lester Macolla Solís when he returned from U.S. Court 8 Aug found political prisoner and VP of April 19 University Movement Jasson Salazar Rugama guilty of “undermining national integrity and spreading false news”. Meanwhile, govt 4 Aug expelled Honduran journalist Kenya Volkanoe from country for publishing pro-Christian posts. Collective of media outlets known as Digital Mercenaries 6 Aug said regime used 1,400 social media accounts to serve as disinformation network.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Crackdown on Catholic Church continued, and opposition stepped up efforts to unify against Ortega regime.

Govt’s religious persecution persisted. Govt 4 July revoked legal status of Fundación Fraternidad Pobres de Jesucristo and expelled nuns in charge of convent from country. Authorities 10 July arrested Fernando Israel Zamora Silva, chancellor of Siuna diocese, in capital Managua. Govt 27 July revoked legal status of 18 organisations, including several religious groups. Meanwhile, Church officials 5 July said Bishop Rolando Álvarez, sentenced in Feb 2023 to 26 years in prison for treason, remained incarcerated despite reports of his release.

Opposition sought to unify. Following exiled opposition’s late June establishment of Monteverde Group, comprised of different opposition factions to consolidate united anti-Ortega front, group 9 July announced five official spokespersons including former presidential candidates Juan Sebastián Chamorro, Félix Maradiaga and Medardo Mairena.

In other important developments. UN human rights office 7 July condemned 2 and 5 July killings of two Indigenous people on Bosawas nature reserve along Atlantic coast; both victims were park wardens in protected area rife with settlers looking to clear land for farms and illegal mining and logging. International Court of Justice 13 July dismissed Nicaragua’s case in dispute with Colombia over maritime borders and economic rights over area of Caribbean Sea.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Govt crackdown continued, notably targeting figures within Catholic Church; President Ortega strengthened ties with Iran.

Several figures from Catholic Church fled country, fearing persecution. Amid crackdown on Catholic Church, presbyters Luis Masís Velásquez and Bayardo Antonio Rugama from Diocese of Bluefields 12 June fled country to avoid imprisonment. U.S. senators 8 June introduced bill to extend sanctions on Nicaragua until end of 2028, which includes proscriptions against those responsible for violations against religious believers. UN human rights office 21 June warned “persecution of members of the Catholic church has intensified” in recent months.

Broader govt crackdown continued. VP Murillo 2 June announced “citizen security” scheme whereby police are authorised to enter people’s homes, which critics denounced as a surveillance program. Ortega govt 9 June confiscated assets belonging to the 222 political prisoners exiled in Feb. After revoking legal status of Red Cross in May, Parliament 1-2 June approved creation of White Cross organisation, transferring all Red Cross assets to state and bringing new organisation under Ministry of Health’s administration.

In other important developments. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi 13 June visited President Ortega in capital Managua, where both criticised U.S. sanctions. Parliament 15 June authorised entry of Russian, Cuban, U.S., Mexican and Venezuelan troops, ships and aircraft into country; govt said their presence is aimed at strengthening aid deliveries and combating organised crime.

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.