Days after Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva’s inauguration as president, Pro-Bolsonaro protesters stormed govt buildings, demanding military coup.

Rioters stormed govt buildings in attempt to reinstate Bolsonaro as president. Days after President Lula 1 Jan took office, supporters of former President Bolsonaro 8 Jan invaded presidential palace, Congress, and Supreme Court in capital Brasília, demanding military coup to reinstate Bolsonaro as president; they stole weaponry from vaults and caused millions of dollars in damage, including by smashing windows and furniture and destroying works of art. Lula same day declared state of emergency in Federal District, where Brasilia is located, until 31 Jan. Bolsonaro 9 Jan denied any involvement, claiming to have always acted lawfully.

Authorities arrested scores for attempted coup, evidence of army role in riots emerged. Police arrested over 1,500 protesters, 39 of whom were indicted by federal prosecutors on 16 Jan for crimes including attempted coup d’état. Supreme Court head Alexandre de Moraes 8 Jan suspended pro-Bolsonaro governor of Federal District Ibaneis Rocha for 90 days due to lack of action to contain protesters; Rocha 13 Jan responded, claiming army prevented police from removing pro-Bolsonaro protesters’ encampment in Brasília before riots. Police 10 Jan arrested former Commander of Federal District’s military police Colonel Fábio Augusto Vieira due to security lapses during riots; Vieira 12 Jan said army had twice blocked police from clearing encampment. Supreme Court 13 Jan approved request to investigate Bolsonaro’s role in protests. Authorities 14 Jan arrested Anderson Torres, Brasília’s security secretary and former minister of justice under Bolsonaro, on charges of “omission”; upon searching his home, they found draft decree that would allow electoral authorities to interfere with past presidential election results and annul Lula’s win. Lula 21 Jan fired army General Julio Cesar de Arruda for not following govt orders to dismantle pro-Bolsonaro tent. Police 27 Jan raided home of Leonardo Rodrigues de Jesus, Bolsonaro’s nephew, currently under investigation for role in riots.

President Bolsonaro’s attempt to challenge election result failed amid dwindling protests.

Protests challenging President Bolsonaro’s electoral defeat slowly lost momentum. Following Oct presidential election in which Bolsonaro narrowly lost to Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, unrest early Nov continued. Notably, footage showed Federal Highway Police agents 1 Nov helping pro-Bolsonaro protesters block highway in São Paulo state. Several blockades resulted in violence, including when car 2 Nov ran into barricade, also in São Paulo state, injuring at least 16 people. Bolsonaro same day called on protesters to lift blockades, while Supreme Court 11 Nov ordered law enforcement to clear all roads. While some highways remained blocked until 18 Nov, all roads eventually cleared by late Nov as protests dwindled.

Bolsonaro contested results, but court rejected request. Amid some lingering protests, Bolsonaro – who had not conceded defeat – and his Liberal Party 22 Nov filed petition formally contesting results, despite 1 Nov saying he would respect constitution; Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes next day rejected challenge.

Presidential elections took place largely peacefully, paving way for Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva’s victory in tight run-off against President Bolsonaro.

Left-wing candidate Lula won presidential election in tight electoral race. In second round of presidential elections held 30 Oct, former President Lula narrowly defeated incumbent President Bolsonaro with 50.9% of votes against Bolsonaro’s 49.1%, becoming latest in wave of left-wing electoral victories across Latin America. In speech delivered 30 Oct, Lula pledged to unite divided country, saying he “will govern for 215 million Brazilians, and not just for those who voted for me”. Foreign leaders, including U.S. President Biden and Russian President Putin, congratulated him.

Bolsonaro had yet to concede defeat by end of Oct, but appeared unlikely to challenge vote. Following months-long criticism over reliability of electronic ballot systems and threats he would contest result, Bolsonaro remained silent following vote, suggesting he will allow transition process to go ahead. By end of month, however, he had not conceded defeat, in contrast to most of his closest allies. Meanwhile, amid concerns of heightened risk of post-electoral violence, few incidents took place. Nonetheless, dozens of trucks drivers began blocking highways and demanding coup after polls closed, ongoing at end of month; unknown assailants 31 Oct killed man celebrating Lula’s victory.

Calm largely prevailed after first round of voting despite small-scale incidents. Following first round of elections held 4 Oct, some incidents took place ahead of final vote amid high tensions. Notably, Bolsonaro supporter was stabbed to death in Itanhaém, São Paulo state, 6 Oct; 29 Oct bolsonarista congresswoman chased Lula supporter with gun. Federal Highway Police, organisation closely allied with Bolsonaro, 30 Oct set up hundreds of roadblocks to delay voters in north east and other centres of support for Lula, allegedly affecting thousands of voters. Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes same day ordered highway police chief to immediately cease operations.

In tense run-up to general election, Electoral Court set boundaries for military involvement, and Supreme Court suspended relaxations on gun control.

Electoral Court denied military parallel vote count. Amid President Bolsonaro’s persistent efforts to discredit electronic voting system and involve military in vote count for 2 Oct general election, Supreme Electoral Court 12 Sept announced military would not be granted real-time access to voting data in order to conduct parallel count. However, Court 17 Sept authorised deployment of military personnel for logistical support in eleven states where criminal groups operate and where risk of electoral violence is higher. Meanwhile, as former left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva widened lead over Bolsonaro in polls, president 7 Sept rallied tens of thousands of supporters across country in show of strength, coinciding with military parades marking country’s bicentennial anniversary of independence.

Fears of electoral violence prompted Supreme Court to strengthen gun control. Supreme Court Justice Edson Fachin 5 Sept suspended several decrees issued by Bolsonaro allowing citizens to buy more arms with less restrictions and govt oversight; Fachin claimed “risk of political violence” around elections rendered decision “extremely and exceptionally urgent”. In response, son of president and Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro 5 Sept called on gun owners to volunteer for his father’s election campaign by distributing campaign materials.

Supreme Electoral Court resisted continued military interest in electoral process as public polarisation over armed forces grew. Ahead of presidential elections set for Oct, concerns grew regarding unlawful intervention of military in electoral process. Superior Electoral Court 2-19 Aug granted military permission to inspect source code for electronic voting machines to be used for elections, following Defence Minister Paulo Sergio Nogueira’s request 1 Aug. However, court 8 Aug declined Nogueira’s request, made in July, to access 2014 and 2018 election data, arguing military has no mandate to analyse past elections. Court same day announced army’s Col Ricardo Sant’anna would be barred from participating in group responsible for overseeing elections, accusing him of “spreading false information in order to discredit the Brazilian electoral system”. After confrontation with Rio de Janeiro’s mayor, Bolsonaro 10 Aug halted plans to combine traditional Sept 7 Independence Day military parade with electoral rally organised by supporters in Copacabana neighbourhood. Proposed joint event polarised public; notably, social network monitoring initiative Democracia Digital 10 Aug said right-wing Telegram groups and channels in Jan-July 2022 saw 695% increase in messages with content including calls for military intervention and demands to arrest Supreme Court justices compared to same period in 2021. Meanwhile, University of São Paulo Law School 11 Aug presented “Letter to Brazilians in defence of the Democratic Rule of Law” at launch event; letter, published late July, raised concerns about “immense danger to democratic normality” amid “insinuations of contempt for the results of the elections”, gathered over 1.1mn signatures.

President Bolsonaro remained at odds with courts over electronic ballot system ahead of October presidential election, and authorities charged three individuals with murder for June killing of journalist and Indigenous expert in Amazon rainforest. Bolsonaro 24 July officially launched re-election bid amid ongoing efforts to discredit country’s electronic voting system. Notably, Defence Minister Paulo Sergio Nogueira 11 July requested that Superior Electoral Tribunal provide all data from electronic ballot boxes of 2014 and 2018 elections; Bolsonaro has repeatedly claimed both elections were rigged. Nogueira during Senate hearing 14 July proposed that election have parallel voting system based on paper ballots. Bolsonaro 18 July accused Supreme Court Justices Alexandre de Moraes, Edson Fachin and Luís Roberto Barroso of provoking instability and undermining his candidacy. In briefing to diplomats, Bolsonaro same day reiterated unreliability of electronic voting system and pressed Superior Electoral Tribunal to address armed forces’ demands for changes to system. U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin 26 July emphasised need for military and security forces to remain “under firm civilian control” during defence gathering of the Americas in Brazil; Nogueira next day assured Austin that military was “focused on providing security” for “safe, secure and transparent” election. Military’s proximity to Bolsonaro hurt its public image, with 29% negative rating according to A Cara de Democracia survey data published 4 July; in 2018, this number was 21%. Meanwhile, authorities around 22 July charged three men with “aggravated double homicide and concealment of a corpse” following disappearance last month of Brazilian Indigenous expert Bruno Pereira and British journalist Dom Phillips, whose research shone spotlight on criminal activities in Amazon rainforest.

Tensions ran high in lead-up to presidential elections as President Bolsonaro continued attacks on Supreme Court; concerns rose over lawlessness in Amazon forest. Preparations for elections scheduled in October continued amid deepening tensions between Bolsonaro administration and Supreme Court. Bolsonaro 6 June criticised Supreme Court justice and current president of Supreme Electoral Court for meeting international ambassadors to discuss electoral process, accusing justice of suggesting president might not accept possible defeat in October polls. Bolsonaro next day criticised Supreme Court removal of congressman Fernando Francischini over promoting fake news during 2018 elections, questioned if Supreme Court would “have the courage” to remove him from office too for raising same “reasonable doubts” over electoral process. Authorities 22 June arrested former education minister and two evangelical pastors for allegedly providing federal funds to mayors who would help Bolsonaro’s campaign; all three released next day. Lawlessness in Amazon forest came under spotlight after British journalist Dom Phillips and Brazilian indigenous expert Bruno Pereira 5 June disappeared in Javari Valley, Amazon region; rescue operators 15 June recovered bodies. Police 8, 15, and 18 June arrested three suspects. Local indigenous group UNIVAJA 17 June questioned police statement that killers acted alone, saying it had warned police since 2021 of organised criminal groups operating in Javari. Federal Police 21 June opened new investigation into possible role of illegal fishing groups in murders. Meanwhile, in Mato Grosso do Sul state (south west), clashes between security forces and members of Guarani-Kaiowá indigenous group 24 June in Amambai municipality killed one.

Former President da Silva launched presidential bid, and President Bolsonaro ramped up attacks on judiciary and electoral system. As Oct presidential elections edged closer, former left-wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7 May announced presidential campaign against incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro; speaking at “pre-launch” rally (official campaigning begins in August), he called on Brazilians to “build an alternative path to the incompetence and authoritarianism that govern us”. His announcement came amid growing fears that Bolsonaro, citing alleged flaws in electronic voting system, might not admit defeat, which could raise risk of violence. Poll by Quest consulting firm 11 May gave Lula clear lead over Bolsonaro. Amid ongoing feud between Bolsonaro and Supreme Court, president 17 May announced he was suing Justice Alexandre de Moraes, citing alleged “attacks on democracy, disrespect for the constitution and contempt for fundamental rights”; Moraes had previously repeatedly accused Bolsonaro of spreading fake news, notably around COVID-19; Supreme Court 18 May rejected complaint. In petition to UN, 80 jurists and legal researchers 18 May said Brazil’s democracy and independent judiciary were under threat. Meanwhile, police 24 May said raid to capture leaders of drug-trafficking organisation in Rio de Janeiro city’s north killed at least 23, second deadliest police raid in Brazil’s history. Video of 38-year-old black man asphyxiated in police car 26 May went viral, sparking outrage online and prompting some to take to streets in town of Umbaúba, northeastern state of Sergipe, to protest against police violence.

Political tensions continued to run high as special parliamentary commission called for criminal charges against President Bolsonaro for mishandling COVID-19 health crisis. News investigation project “Pandora papers” 3 Oct revealed Economy Minister Paulo Guedes had deposited several million dollars in tax heavens. Guedes 20 Oct suggested govt might lift spending cap to pay for increased social spending; following announcement, dollar price spiked, stock market crashed and four economy ministry top employees resigned next day. Bolsonaro 21 Oct released video in which he said COVID-19 vaccines could cause AIDS; announcement immediately sparked widespread condemnation, and social media groups Facebook and Instagram 24 Oct removed Bolsonaro’s video from their platforms, categorising it as “fake news”; YouTube next day removed video and suspended Bolsonaro’s account for a week. Senate’s commission investigating govt’s role in COVID-19 pandemic 26 Oct recommended that Bolsonaro be tried on criminal charges – including for alleged crimes against humanity – for his handling of health crisis; same day asked Supreme Court to request Facebook and Twitter to ban Bolsonaro’s accounts indefinitely and requested access to records of Bolsonaro’s internet activity. Meanwhile, Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes 21 Oct issued arrest order against close Bolsonaro ally Allan dos Santos, now based in the U.S., for alleged role in disseminating fake information and anti-democratic actions; de Moreas 28 Oct warned “digital militias” linked to Bolsonaro would continue to “spread hatred, conspiracy, fear and to influence the elections” in 2022.

Political tensions persisted as President Bolsonaro made incendiary remarks toward Supreme Court, which fuelled alarm among politicians. As Bolsonaro 7 Sept gave speech in São Paulo city indicating he would not abide anymore by Supreme Court’s rulings, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters gathered in São Paulo, Brasilia and Rio de Janeiro cities; notably, right-wing activists en route to Congress and Supreme Court in capital Brasilia broke through barriers, had minor clashes with police. Hundreds of truck drivers next day blocked roads in 15 states in support of president and demanding Supreme Court judges’ impeachment. Bolsonaro 9 Sept asked truck drivers to open roads and said in conciliatory statement that he spoke “in the heat of the moment”, never meant to attack Supreme Court. Datafolha poll of 3667 Brazilians 17 Sept showed disapproval rates of president reached 53%, and ex-president ‘Lula’ Da Silva favourite to win 2022 elections. Bolsonaro 9 Sept prohibited social media from removing posts that violate misinformation rules; Senate and Supreme Court 15 Sept however nullified decision. Worst drought in almost a century 7 Sept forced govt to increase electricity prices by 7%; energy ministry warned of likely blackouts while cities, including Nova Friburgo and Petrópolis, started rationing water consumption.