Refugee scandal embroiled mainstream parties, while PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal undertook first visit to India since taking office.

Refugee scandal rocked major parties. Following arrests made by police, Kathmandu District Attorney’s Office 24 May filed charges against three senior politicians – former deputy PM, former home minister and former home secretary, all members of ruling Nepali Congress or opposition Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) – and 27 others for their alleged involvement in issuing fraudulent documents to Nepali nationals to enter U.S. as Bhutanese refugees. Speculation grew that Nepali Congress may threaten to quit ruling coalition after it had reportedly unsuccessfully lobbied against arrests of senior officials.

PM Dahal visited India. In his first foreign visit since becoming PM, Pushpa Kamal Dahal 31 May arrived in India’s capital New Delhi for four-day state visit, signalling continued importance of bilateral ties. U.S. State Department’s 2022 Report on International Religious Freedom issued 15 May claimed that religious groups associated with India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party had lobbied Nepali politicians in favour of restoring Hinduism as official state religion; Nepal’s foreign ministry 28 May sent “diplomatic note” to U.S. embassy regarding report.

Senior Nepali Congress leader won presidential election, while protests by Indigenous communities over renaming dispute roiled easternmost province.

Nepali Congress leader won presidential poll. In presidential election decided by federal and provincial lawmakers, senior Nepali Congress leader Ram Chandra Paudel with support of Maoist-led ruling alliance 9 March secured comfortable victory over candidate nominated by opposition Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), winning more than 64 per cent of votes; lawmakers 17 March elected Ram Sahaya Yadav, leader of ruling alliance member Janata Samajbadi Party, vice president. PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal 31 March reshuffled his cabinet for seventh time in three months, giving leaders from five new parties ministerial portfolios; several key ministries, including foreign affairs, remain vacant due to disagreements among ruling parties.

Official renaming of Province 1 sparked protests by Indigenous communities. Provincial Assembly members of Nepal’s easternmost province (known as Province 1) 1 March decided to rename region Koshi Province, becoming last of Nepal’s seven provinces to adopt official name since provincial system was set up under 2015 constitution. In doing so, Assembly effectively rejected proposals to name province after Indigenous communities residing in region’s hilly districts, which prompted activists of Limbu, Rai and Sherpa communities to hold street protests and shutdowns throughout month; notably, clashes between riot police and protesters in Sunsari district 24 March killed one demonstrator, further fuelling tensions.

Ahead of presidential election in March, coalition govt collapsed just two months into tenure as Nepali Congress and Maoists revived their alliance.

Maoists, Nepali Congress, and six other parties 24 Feb struck new pact endorsing Nepali Congress’ candidate for forthcoming 9 March presidential election. Deal contravened Dec agreement between Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) and Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist), or UML, which propelled Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” to PM. In response, UML 27 Feb announced its withdrawal from govt, following two other parties leaving governing coalition earlier in month. Senior Nepali Congress leader Ram Chandra Poudel 25 Feb filed his nomination for presidency at Election Commission, while UML put forward former House Speaker Subas Nembang. With new president to be elected via electoral college comprising federal parliament and provincial assemblies, Poudel appears set to garner sufficient support if new Maoist-Nepali Congress pact holds. Further politicisation of ceremonial head of state position could portend further political instability, as observers expressed concern over activist presidency undermining legislature.

New PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal received near-unanimous support in vote of confidence, while tensions emerged within ruling coalition ahead of presidential election.

New govt secured overwhelming support. In vote of confidence 10 Jan, Maoist Chairman and PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” received 268 votes in favour in 275-member House of Representatives after Nepali Congress in surprise move backed Dahal despite his withdrawal from Nepali Congress-Maoist electoral alliance in Dec; Nepali Congress decision led to speculation that Maoists would in return support Nepali Congress candidate in upcoming March election for presidency.

Discord surfaced between ruling coalition parties. Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist, UML) Chairman KP Oli 17 Jan walked out of all-party meeting after rejecting suggestions that constitutional posts like presidency be shared with Nepali Congress; Oli accused Nepali Congress of “plotting” against Maoist-UML alliance, which is underpinned by 25 Dec deal whereby presidency and house speaker posts go to UML. UML leader Dev Raj Ghimire elected speaker of House 18 Jan. Meanwhile, Deputy PM and Rastriya Swatantra Party chief Rabi Lamichhane 27 Jan resigned after Supreme Court annulled his election to parliament due to invalid citizenship; Lamichhane’s citizenship was restored 29 Jan.

Maoist chief “Prachanda” became new PM after breaking alliance with Nepali Congress and partnering once more with KP Oli, raising concerns over durability of broad new coalition.

Political jostling after final election results birthed another Prachanda-Oli alliance, denying Nepali Congress power. In official results following Nov poll, Nepali Congress cemented position as largest party in parliament, securing 89 out of 275 total seats in House of Representatives; Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) won 78 seats, while Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) won 32 seats. However, tensions between Nepali Congress and Maoists prevented formation of new govt, specifically due to impasse between Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba and Maoist chief Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” over who would lead new govt first. President Bhandari 18 Dec gave parties seven days to form new govt. After Nepali Congress-Maoist talks faltered, Unified Marxist-Leninist chair and former PM KP Oli 25 Dec struck deal with Prachanda, forming new coalition govt led by Unified Marxist-Leninist, Maoists and five other parties, with Prachanda and Oli splitting up prime ministership in deal mirroring one that underpinned UML-Maoist govt formed in 2017. Prachanda 26 Dec took oath as PM. Concerns proliferated, however, over political stability and durability of new govt given ideological tensions between coalition partners and history of acrimony between Prachanda and Oli, specifically latter’s refusal to cede prime ministership in Dec 2020.

Voters participated in second general election under 2015 constitution, which saw relatively low turnout and signs of frustration with mainstream parties.

In largely peaceful vote, Nepali Congress poised to become largest party. Country 20 Nov held second general election under current constitutional set-up; vote proceeded largely peacefully despite some disruptions. Notably, police intervened to address disruptions in six districts countrywide; one person died after being shot by police during clashes in Bajura district. Around 61% of nearly 18m registered voters cast their ballots in polls for federal and provincial assemblies — marking decrease from 68% in 2017 contest. With votes still being tallied late Nov, Nepali Congress appeared set to become largest party in federal parliament with calculations predicting around 90 of 275 seats in House of Representatives, 165 of which are elected via first-past-the-post (FPTP) and 110 through nationwide proportional representation (PR) system; Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) appeared poised to secure most PR seats with 2.18mn nationwide votes. Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) will likely remain third largest party but with its share of FPTP seats falling to 18, half of those secured in 2017. Non-mainstream and independent Rastriya Swatantra Party appeared set to secure eight FPTP seats after winning prominent races in Kathmandu and Lalitpur districts, underscoring anti-establishment sentiment, especially in urban areas.

Ahead of general elections in Nov, ruling and opposition parties continued jostling as new electoral alliances were formed.

Parties finalised seat-sharing agreements amid defections and new pacts. Ahead of 20 Nov federal and provincial elections, ruling coalition 8 Oct agreed on dividing up electoral constituencies between coalition’s members, with Nepali Congress getting 90 electoral contests and Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) getting 45; opposition Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) will contest 35 federal and 70 provincial seats. Citing dissatisfaction over allocation of electoral seats, Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) 8 Oct split from five-party ruling coalition and joined opposition alliance led by Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist); as per agreement, JSP will receive UML’s support for 17 federal and 42 provincial contests. UML 8 Oct struck electoral alliance pact with right-wing pro-monarchist Rastriya Prajatantra Party. PM Sher Bahadur Deuba 13 Oct dismissed four JSP ministers from cabinet following party’s defection. Following JSP’s departure from ruling coalition, Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP) – regional party based in southern Madhesh plains – joined Nepali Congress-led electoral alliance after it was guaranteed seven federal and 16 provincial constituencies.

President Bhandari blocked amendment to citizenship law in move widely seen as beyond usual presidential prerogatives, raising concern over further erosion of 2015 constitution.

President rejected amendment to citizenship act, stoking controversy. President Bhandari 20 Sept refused to authenticate bill amending Citizenship Act despite its being endorsed twice by both chambers of parliament; bill was aimed at addressing demands of stateless individuals, many of them in southern Madhes plains, who have been unable to obtain Nepali citizenship and therefore do not have voting rights. Govt officials, civil society and observers widely qualified Bhandari’s move as another blow to 2015 constitution, which does not grant president (who performs ceremonial role) authority to reject bills approved by parliament; five-party ruling coalition 21 Sept called move “unconstitutional” and said Bhandari had “seriously insulted and devalued the federal parliament”. Options for coalition to challenge Bhandari’s move remained unclear, as House of Representatives’ five-year term 17 Sept lapsed and Supreme Court remained mired in dispute over Chief Justice Cholendra Rana who was suspended in Feb following impeachment motion.

Preparations continued for Nov general elections. Ruling coalition 29 Sept agreed to tentative seat-sharing formula for House of Representatives polls after Election Commission imposed 9 Oct deadline for parties to nominate candidates.

Govt announced date for general election in Nov, which sparked haggling among ruling coalition parties over seat-sharing arrangements. Cabinet meeting 4 Aug scheduled parliamentary and provincial elections for 20 Nov; 84 parties applied to Election Commission to contest polls by registration deadline on 16 Aug. Five-member ruling coalition 5 Aug established task force to determine by 16 Aug seat-sharing arrangements for upcoming polls, to ensure ruling parties do not contest same constituencies. By end of month, however, task force was unable to find agreement due to parties’ demands outnumbering available seats on offer; all five parties 25 Aug presented their claims, which cumulatively totaled 234 directly elected House of Representatives seats – far above 165 total seats on offer. Leftist members of coalition reportedly considered merger to increase their bargaining power.

Corruption allegations against finance minister fuelled criticism of govt as winter elections approach. Finance Minister Janardan Sharma 6 July resigned following allegations of corruption in relation to new fiscal year budget announced late May. Parliamentary committee formed to investigate accusations 29 July concluded that it could not confirm allegations against Sharma, largely due to insufficient evidence after surveillance footage considered crucial to probe was found to have been deleted. Following committee’s conclusion – and despite widespread rebuke of Sharma’s breach of budgetary protocol and more general critique of his neglect of worrying trends in financial sector – Sharma was reappointed finance minister 31 July upon recommendation by PM Sher Bahadur Deuba; observers criticised Deuba for prioritising ruling alliance over governance amid pressure from Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Election Commission 6 July recommended to Deuba that federal and provincial elections be held in single phase on 18 Nov; Deuba’s govt, however, is yet to announce official poll date. Deuba’s Nepali Congress party 18 July officially decided to contest upcoming elections with other ruling coalition parties.