CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Nile Waters

Latest round of talks on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) failed to produce agreement.

Latest round of trilateral talks between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on GERD 19 Dec ended without agreement. Cairo 19 Dec issued statement saying “meeting was unsuccessful due to Ethiopia’s persistent refusal … to accept any of the technical or legal compromise solutions that would safeguard the interests of all three countries”; Addis Ababa same day said it sought “amicable agreement” but accused Egypt of maintaining “colonial era mentality” and erecting “roadblocks against efforts toward convergence”.

Africa

Nile Waters

Third round of talks on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) concluded without breakthrough.

Third round of talks between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan regarding rules for first filling and annual operation of GERD 24 Oct concluded in Egypt’s capital Cairo. Sides failed to make progress, with Cairo accusing Addis of refusing to compromise, but agreed to fourth round of talks in Ethiopia.

Africa

Nile Waters

Ethiopia announced completion of fourth filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) ahead of fresh talks with Sudan and Egypt.

Two weeks after Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan resumed talks on GERD, Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed 10 Sept declared Ethiopia had completed “fourth and final filling” of dam; Egypt’s foreign ministry 11 Sept condemned “unilateral, illegal” move, while Sudan did not comment. Sides 23-24 Sept met in Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa for fresh negotiations; Ethiopia 24 Sept said parties exchanged “constructive ideas” on disputes and reiterated “its commitment to continue negotiating in good faith”; in sharp contrast, Egypt said talks did not make “any worthwhile progress” and accused Ethiopia of backtracking on previous agreements.

Africa

Nile Waters

Talks between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) concluded without breakthrough.

Ethiopian, Egyptian and Sudanese officials 27 Aug met in Egyptian capital Cairo to restart negotiations over Ethiopia’s controversial GERD project, though talks 28 Aug concluded without any indication of progress. Resumption of discussions followed mid-July agreement between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed to finalise deal on dam’s filling and operation within four months. Next round of talks scheduled for Sept in Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa.

Africa

Nile Waters

Egyptian and Ethiopian leaders agreed to resume talks on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

On sidelines of Sudan’s Neighbouring States Summit in Egypt’s capital, Cairo (see Sudan), Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi 13 July agreed to restart GERD talks, with aim of reaching final deal on filling and operation of dam within four months. Pact came after Ethiopia promised to ensure Egypt and Sudan receive sufficient water flows during fourth annual filling, which may last until Sept; war-torn Sudan’s role in forthcoming talks not yet clear.

Africa

Nile Waters

Ethiopia announced completion of third filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) despite concerns raised by Egypt and Sudan. Ethiopia’s govt 11 Aug said it had launched power production from GERD’s second turbine, next day announced completion of dam’s third filling. Local media 11 Aug quoted head of Sudanese technical negotiating team on GERD, Mustafa Hussein, as saying that Sudan would take “necessary action” if filling of GERD impacted Sudan’s dams or other uses of Nile river water supply. Sudanese govt 18 Aug however denounced “misleading and incorrect information” and urged “cooperation” between impacted countries. Prior to Ethiopia’s announcements, Egypt late July had sent letter to UN Security Council protesting Ethiopia’s intention to continue “unilaterally” filling dam.

Africa

Nile Waters

Ethiopia launched power production from Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), lowering hopes of renewed dialogue between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. Addis Ababa 20 Feb announced it had started producing electricity at GERD. In response, Egypt’s FM Sameh Shoukry same day accused Ethiopia of violating 2015 Declaration of Principles signed by all three countries. Cairo in letter to UN Security Council around 25 Feb said Ethiopia bears “full responsibility” for “any damage caused to Egypt” as a result. Sudan’s acting Irrigation and Water Resources Minister Daw Al-Bait Abdul-Rahman 21 Feb rejected “unacceptable move” and “unilateral step” by Ethiopia.

Africa

Nile Waters

International community called for renewed efforts to resolve water dispute between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan. Amid stalled tripartite talks on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) under African Union auspices, U.S. Horn of Africa Special Envoy Jeffrey Feltman 2 Nov stated “urgent need” for acceptable deal between Egypt and Ethiopia. During U.S.-Egypt Strategic Dialogue in Washington DC, U.S. Sec State Anthony Blinken 8 Nov reiterated U.S. support for negotiated agreement between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan. Arab League Sec Gen Ahmed Aboul Gheit 12 Nov called for further international pressure on Ethiopia over GERD and reiterated support for Sudan and Egypt’s water rights. During Tanzanian President Suluhu Hassan’s visit to Egypt, President Sisi 10 Nov said GERD “existential” issue for Egypt, and cooperation between Nile Basin countries on GERD would boost security and stability for all countries in region. Egypt’s Water Minister Mohamed Abdel-Ati 20 Nov warned any water shortage due to GERD would spark regional instability.

Africa

Nile Waters

Efforts to resolve water dispute between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan remained at standstill. Sudanese diplomatic source 9 Oct reportedly told Egyptian newspaper Al-Masry Al-Youm that AU’s Democratic Republic of Congo Presidency had not yet set date for resuming negotiations on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute. Egyptian Irrigation Minister Mohamed Abdel-Ati 11 Oct said negotiations were “almost frozen” and “international communications [on the matter] do not live up to our ambitions” in apparent reference to Sept UN Security Council statement calling for resumption of AU-led talks. Ethiopian foreign ministry 14 Oct said Addis Ababa was ready to resume talks under AU auspices. In address to international water conference in Egyptian capital Cairo, Egyptian President Sisi 24 Oct called for “balanced and legally binding agreement” to be reached as soon as possible, citing Egypt’s “almost exclusive dependence” on Nile waters.

Africa

Nile Waters

Amid stalled efforts to resolve Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute, UN Security Council urged parties to resume AU-led talks. Egypt’s Water Minister Mohamed Abdel-Ati 6 Sept said diplomatic initiatives other than AU efforts under way. Egypt’s FM Sameh Shoukry 8 Sept reiterated commitment to talks with view to reaching binding agreement on filling and operating dam, said Cairo wants to avoid military conflict. UN Security Council 15 Sept adopted Tunisia-drafted presidential statement encouraging Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to resume GERD negotiations under AU auspices, and calling on parties to reach “binding” agreement “within a reasonable time frame”. Ethiopia’s foreign ministry same day regretted “that the Council pronounces itself over an issue of water right … that is outside of its mandate”, and condemned “Tunisia’s historic misstep”. In speech delivered to UN General Assembly, Egyptian President Sisi 21 Sept criticised Ethiopia’s “intransigence” and “unjustified refusal to deal positively with the negotiations process”.

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