France’s president sought to boost ties with Kazakhstan, and FMs from Central Asian countries attended G7 online meeting.

Macron sought to bolster cooperation. French President Macron 1 Nov met with President Tokayev in capital Astana during regional tour (see Uzbekistan) to “accelerate cooperation” in key sectors. Pair signed raft of agreements, including on transport engineering, agribusiness and pharmaceuticals; Macron also praised Astana for refusing “to be a vassal of any powers”. Days after Macron’s visit, Russian President Putin 9 Nov met with Tokayev in Astana to discuss bilateral cooperation, with Putin calling for stronger military ties. In interview broadcast 12 Nov, Russian FM Lavrov accused west of trying to “push” Moscow out of Central Asia.

G7 hosted Central Asian FMs for virtual meeting. During 7-8 Nov G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Japan, FMs from Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan 8 Nov attended virtual session amid efforts by G7 to strengthen engagement with Central Asia. G7 promised to “support the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of Central Asian countries” and to strengthen cooperation on “regional challenges”, such as impact of war in Ukraine, water security and climate change. Meanwhile, Belarus 23 Nov hosted Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization summit, bringing together leaders from Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (see Belarus).

Amid limited space for political campaigning, President Tokayev won landslide victory in snap election before reaffirming ties with Russia.

Re-election of Tokayev paves way for seven-year term. Kazakhs 20 Nov headed to polls to vote in snap presidential election, which incumbent President Tokayev won in landslide victory, securing over 80% of vote. Victory allows Tokayev to extend his presidential term by seven years under country’s new term limits. Tokayev’s Sept announcement to hold election gave his opponents little preparation time, raising concerns around lack of competition. Notably, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe observer mission 21 Nov said “early presidential election took place in a political environment lacking competitiveness, and while efficiently prepared, the election underlined the need for further reforms (…) to ensure genuine pluralism”.

Tokayev reaffirmed ties with Russia in first foreign visit since election. Tokayev 28 Nov met Russian President Putin in Moscow amid public disagreements over Ukraine; notably, Tokayev had declined to recognise Russia’s declared annexation of four Ukrainian regions. Still, Tokayev reaffirmed bilateral relations, saying “Russia is and has always been a strategic partner” while Putin hailed “special” relations between Moscow and Astana.

President announced snap presidential elections and changes to term limits for future incumbents; country welcomed almost 100,000 Russians fleeing President Putin’s mobilisation order.

President declared early presidential elections and changes to presidential term. President Tokayev 1 Sept called for snap elections in coming months, when he will seek second term, and parliamentary elections early 2023, arguing that such measures would enable “fundamental and comprehensive reforms”. Tokayev also proposed changing presidential term from five to seven years, preventing future incumbents from seeking second term, in order to “reduce the risks of monopolisation of power”. Following approval from lower chamber of parliament on 16 Sept, Tokayev 17 Sept signed legislation enshrining one seven-year presidential term. He also approved change of capital name from Nur-Sultan back to Astana, in move likely aimed at further distancing himself from his predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbaev.

Almost 100,000 Russians fleeing Putin’s mobilisation order crossed into Kazakhstan. Following Putin’s partial mobilisation order for war in Ukraine (see Russia and Ukraine) on 21 Sept, officials 27 Sept said around 98,000 Russians had arrived in Kazakhstan. Tokayev same day urged tolerance, saying “we must take care of them and ensure their safety. It is a political and a humanitarian issue”.

Kazakhs voted overwhelmingly in support of constitutional amendments in referendum, which offer greater parliamentary powers. Following nationwide protests in Jan that left 232 dead, Kazakhs 5 June voted in referendum on President Tokayev’s proposed constitutional amendments, seen by some observers as attempt by Tokayev to prevent former President Nursultan Nazarbayev and his relatives’ return to political sphere; referendum proposed 56 amendments, including limits to presidential powers, ban on Nazarbayev’s relatives from holding govt positions and more parliamentary powers. Central Election Commission chairman 6 June said 77.18% voted in favour of changes. Some activists and human rights campaigners said changes included “very few limits to presidential power”, given that president will “retain the right to appoint the prime minister, to appoint key ministers in the cabinet, to veto laws and all the other powers that the president has enjoyed”. During 19th EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation Council held 20 June, EU welcomed referendum results but highlighted need for independent investigation into Jan unrest. Meanwhile, in 17 June plenary session with Russian President Putin, Tokayev rejected Putin’s claim that former Soviet Union was “historical Russia”; also rejected recognition of so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in Ukraine’s east as independent states, despite Russia declaring them independent countries in Feb (see Ukraine).

Localised protests over fuel price turned into nationwide rioting heavily repressed by security forces, killing over 200 people. Protesters 2 Jan flooded streets of petroleum-producing city of Zhanaozen in west after govt doubled fuel prices; protests spread rapidly across country, first in other oil- and mineral-producing regions and then to most regions. In Almaty city, thousands of demonstrators 5 Jan shouted “Old man out” in reference to former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who led country until 2019 and retained position of head of National Security Council thereafter. In response to unrest, govt 5 Jan resigned and President Tokayev same day removed Nazarbayev from security council position, as well as senior intelligence official Karim Masimov. Protesters 5 Jan took control of Almaty’s airport. Amid unrest, Tokayev 5 Jan requested regional alliance Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to send forces to guard govt facilities in capital Nur-Sultan; Russia 7 Jan announced regional forces, comprising notably Russian and Armenian troops, retook Almaty’s airport. Tokayev 11 Jan announced beginning of departure of CSTO forces on 13 Jan. Media reports indicated authorities detained up to 12,000 people and officials reported 225 deaths during unrest, with over 2,000 requiring hospital treatment. Last four Russian military transport aircraft with Russian CSTO peacekeepers on board 19 Jan departed from Nur-Sultan.

Opposition groups staged protest calling for reform and release of political prisoners. Following 11 Feb EU Parliament resolution citing “worrying deterioration in general situation of human rights and crackdown on civil society organisations”, opposition groups 28 Feb held demonstrations in several cities including Aqtobe, Oral, Almaty and capital Nur-Sultan calling for political reforms and release of political prisoners; authorities detained at least 50 protesters in Almaty city.

Amid stifling of dissent and exclusion of opposition in run-up to vote, ruling party won unopposed parliamentary election. In lead-up to local and parliamentary elections on 10 Jan, authorities in capital Nur-Sultan and Aqtobe city 4-6 Jan arrested and sentenced to seven-15 days imprisonment four activists – including election observer – for allegedly calling for local protests; police 6 Jan detained activist in southern city of Shymkent. On election day, authorities reportedly detained dozens of protesters across country, including two dozen in Almaty city; Deputy Interior Minister Arystangani Zapparov 10 Jan said all detainees were released without charges. Central Election Commission – which last month excluded opposition parties from polls – 11 Jan announced ruling Nur Otan party won over 71% of vote; Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe same day stated that “an uncompetitive campaign and systemic de-facto limitations on constitutionally guaranteed fundamental freedoms left voters without genuine choice”. Meanwhile, authorities targeted civil society groups; tax authorities 15-25 Jan fined and later suspended one election-monitoring group and two human rights organisations over alleged financial irregularities; authorities 18 Jan fined fourth group. Court in western city of Atyrau 22 Jan imposed three-year parole restriction on activist Maks Boqaev ahead of his expected release 4 Feb; authorities sentenced Boqaev on extremism charges in 2016 after he allegedly organised unsanctioned protest. Ordabasy district court in southern region of Turkistan 26 Jan sentenced activist to one year “freedom limitation” for involvement with banned Koshe party, associated with proscribed opposition party Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan. Administrative court in northern Kokshetau city 28 Jan sentenced activist to 12 days imprisonment for allegedly taking part in unsanctioned rally 25 Jan in city’s central square.

Authorities continued harassment of opposition groups and activists ahead of parliamentary elections in January. Central Election Commission (OSK) 10 Dec launched parliamentary campaign, due to run until 9 Jan, with no opposition parties listed on ballot; opposition movement Halyq Biligi (People’s Rule) 22 Dec demanded postponement of parliamentary elections, citing lack of opposition parties’ participation. In Almaty city, opposition groups 16 Dec marched in unauthorised protest to demand release of political prisoners, fair parliamentary elections and registration of opposition parties. Meanwhile, authorities continued to target civil society and opposition. Notably, coalition of international NGOs 3 Dec said that tax authorities had notified 13 human rights organisations for alleged financial reporting violations in Oct-Nov, including “incorrectly completed declaration forms relating to foreign income”, which carries fine and suspension of activities penalties. Court in north-western city of Aqtobe 21 Dec sentenced activist Alibek Moldin to one year of “freedom limitation’’ for leading banned Koshe party, associated with proscribed opposition party Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan. Authorities in Aqtobe same day forcibly admitted activist Asanali Suyubaev to psychiatric clinic; Suyubaev accused of tearing down poster of ruling Nur Otan party. In city of Keles, district court 22 Dec sentenced activist Marat Duisembiev to three and a half years of “freedom limitation” for involvement with banned Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan party.

Opposition parties mobilised to boycott Jan 2021 parliamentary elections. Hundreds of opposition Democratic Party supporters 14 Nov held rally in Almaty city to call for boycott of Jan 2021 parliamentary elections, in second opposition demonstration permitted by authorities since law was amended in May. All-National Social Democratic Party 27 Nov announced boycott of parliamentary vote during party conference, citing continued dominance by “the same political parties”. Meanwhile, govt continued to target opposition and civil society figures. Petropavl City Court in north 2 Nov sentenced opposition Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan activist Nurbol Onerkhan to one year of freedom limitation on charges of involvement in “extremist group”; Court also banned Onerkhan from any social or political activity. In line with Nur-Sultan court order on 19 Nov, police 23 Nov forcibly admitted journalist and govt critic Aigul Otepova to psychiatric clinic, reportedly for involvement in Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan opposition movement, labelled as extremist group by govt; Otepova was under house arrest since Sept. NGO Human Rights Watch 18 Nov said Otepova was “being prosecuted solely for the peaceful expression of her views”, urged govt to release her immediately.

Stifling of opposition continued amid calls for creation of new opposition party and adoption of limited reforms. Around 200 people 13 Sept gathered in authorised rally in Almaty to call for release of political prisoners and authorisation to form new opposition Democratic Party, which govt has repeatedly barred from official registration; demonstrators also called for expulsion of Chinese ambassador to Kazakhstan, citing fear of Chinese economic “expansion” in country. After prominent civil rights activist Erbol Eskhozhin publicly called police officers “Nazarbayev’s puppies” during protest earlier this year, in reference to former President Nazarbayev, Almaty city court 14 Sept fined Eskhozhin $530 for insulting police. Almaty city court next day upheld April sentence of activist Alnur Ilyashev, convicted for criticising govt response to COVID-19 outbreak, to parole-like limited freedom. Authorities 25 Sept disrupted protests across country organised by exiled leader of opposition Mukhtar Ablyazov by reportedly surrounding public squares and preventing demonstrators from gathering; police reportedly detained protesters in capital Nur-Sultan, Aktobe and eastern Semey. President Tokayev 1 Sept called for “reset” of state structures, including implementation of direct elections for local governors from next year; move follows persistent calls from opposition groups for democracy reform in recent years. Tokayev same day announced creation of two new state agencies and more independence for Agency for Emergency Situations to tackle COVID-19 pandemic.