Aftermath of death of staunch govt opponent continued to roil internal politics; opposition struggled to mobilise for May presidential elections. 

Tensions remained high after death of President’s cousin Yaya Dillo. Conflicting reports about Dillo, who led Socialist Party without Borders (PSF) and died in security forces shooting late Feb at party headquarters in capital N’Djamena, sparked speculation about his demise and divisions within ruling elite. Govt 1 March insisted Dillo was killed while resisting lawful arrest but opposition same day labelled killing an execution; authorities 1 March reportedly demolished PSF headquarters, potentially eliminating evidence, and although PM Masra 4 March pledged international investigation, much remained unclear.  

Democratic opposition struggled to build political weight against Déby. Ahead of 6 May presidential vote, Constitutional Council 24 March approved ten candidates, and excluded ten others including prominent opponents of military-led govt, notably Nassour Ibrahim Neguy Koursami and Rakhis Ahmat Saleh over “irregularities” in their applications; transitional President Mahamad Déby and recently-appointed PM Masra both cleared to run for office. Earlier, opposition struggled to mobilise behind one figure with some parties supporting Koursami’s candidacy and others that of influential former PM Padacké. 

Security in hinterland remained stable, but sporadic violence persisted. Unidentified gunmen 1 March attacked community radio journalist’s home near Mangalmé town (Guera region), killing journalist and two family members. Inter-communal clashes remained prominent; tensions in Djourf Al-Ahmar department (Ouaddaï region) escalated as Mouro and Birgit communities 17 March clashed as part of decades-long tensions, with govt reporting 42 civilians killed during unrest. Meanwhile, govt 25 March announced explosive device killed seven soldiers near Lake Chad in west, saying they suspected Boko Haram jihadists from Nigeria.

In another important development. In wake of Déby’s Jan visit to Russia, France attempted re-engagement with govt; French President Emmanuel Macron’s envoy Jean-Marie Bockel 7 March reassured Déby about continued presence of French troops, with force crucial for regime stability but unpopular with some political actors and civil society groups. 

Gunfire erupted in capital N’Djamena, with security forces killing staunch opponent and cousin of transitional President Déby, Yaya Dillo, as major cracks emerged within ruling elite ahead of presidential election scheduled for May.

Security forces killed staunch opponent, exposing divisions within ruling elite. Transitional President Mahamad Déby’s uncle, Gen. Saleh Déby, 10 Feb left ruling party to join Socialist Party without Borders (PSF), led by Mahamat Déby’s cousin Yaya Dillo. Defection, together with expressions of dissent by other members of Zaghawa clan (which is Mahamat Déby’s father, former President Idriss Déby’s ethnic group), raised tensions within ruling elite. Secret intelligence 27 Feb reportedly arrested and injured senior PSF official Ahmed Torabi, accusing him of murder attempt against Supreme Court president. Victim’s relatives overnight 27-28 Feb allegedly tried to storm National State Security Agency in N’Djamena; after security forces intervened, govt said situation was “under control” and confirmed several fatalities. Security forces 28 Feb also surrounded PSF headquarters in N’Djamena, leading to heavy gunfire; authorities later said Yaya Dillo and twelve others had died in shootout, while Saleh Déby had been arrested. Situation next day remained tense in N’Djamena with security forces deployed in key locations and internet services cut off.

Presidential vote scheduled for May, opposition questioned legitimacy of electoral bodies. Election agency 27 Feb announced first round of presidential election will take place 6 May, followed by second round on 22 June; polls aim to end three-year transitional period and return country to constitutional rule; no date announced for legislative elections. Alliance of fourteen political parties, Consultative Group of Political Actors, 8 Feb questioned Constitutional Council and National Electoral Authority’s legitimacy after Gen. Déby late Jan appointed ruling party spokesman Jean-Bernard Padaré as Constitutional Council president and named several people affiliated to ruling party as members of these two bodies.

Social tensions ran high amid rising cost of living. Public sector workers 6 Feb threatened to go on strike over govt’s lack of commitment to their demands, including lifting of freeze on raises and advancements. Opposition and civil society coalition “Nous le people” 26 Feb launched ghost town operation in N’Djamena and other cities to protest rising cost of living.

Transitional president maintained tight grip on power despite appointment of opposition leader as PM; authorities announced foiling destabilisation attempt, and pro-Sudanese armed forces hacking group targeted Chad. 

Opposition leader named PM, Deby endorsed as presidential candidate. Transitional President Gen Mahamat Déby 1 Jan appointed Succès Masra, founder of opposition party Les Transformateurs, as PM of transitional govt. Déby in following days asserted his authority, however. New govt formed 2 Jan kept key figures from previous govt while Masra secured only three ministries for his party. In likely bid to tighten control over Masra’s actions, Déby 8 Jan appointed Les Transformateurs defector, Moustapha Masri, as deputy head of his civilian cabinet. Ruling party Patriotic Salvation Movement of late President Idriss Déby 13 Jan nominated President Mahamat Déby as candidate for presidential election due to be held in Oct. 

Security situation remained precarious. Military 12 Jan announced foiling planned “insurrection” and arresting 80 armed officers, including alleged coordinator of insurrectional movement, Lt. Kouroumta Levana Guelemi; development might be related to interethnic struggles within national army. Almost 900 fighters from rebel coalition Union of Democratic Forces for Democracy 2 Jan gathered in Faya-Largeau city (Borkou province) with their president, Mahamat Nouri, to disarm as per 2022 Doha agreement, but govt’s inability to fund disarmament program could lead to tensions and further instability. Meanwhile, intercommunal conflicts continued in country’s centre and south; notably, clash between herders and farmers 6 Jan left one dead and unknown number injured in Abtouyour department (Guéra province). 

Cyberattack targeted Chad over stance on Sudan conflict. Pro-Sudanese armed forces hacking group, Anonymous Sudan, 10 Jan hit Chad’s internet infrastructure, causing hours-long internet blackout; group said attack was in retaliation for N’Djamena’s alleged support for paramilitary Rapid Support Force (RSF). Meanwhile, Chadian and Sudanese FMs 18 Jan met in Ugandan capital Kampala to discuss bilateral relations. 

In another important development. Déby 24 Jan met with Russian President Putin in Russia’s capital Moscow.

Country approved junta-sponsored constitution in divisive referendum marred by calls for boycott; mounting accusations of Chad taking sides in Sudan conflict strained bilateral relations.

New constitution approved by referendum amid opposition boycott. Constitutional referendum held 17 Dec, with low turnout observed in most major towns and particularly in country’s south; military rulers promoted new constitution as key step toward elections in late 2024 and return to civilian rule, but some opposition and civil society groups had called for referendum boycott, saying new constitution silences debate on federalism by entrenching unitary state, and prepares ground for election of military leader Gen Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno as president. Succès Masra, president of prominent opposition party Les Transformateurs, who returned from exile in Nov, 9 Dec however called for “yes” vote, paving way for his appointment as PM. Electoral commission 24 Dec said new constitution approved by almost 86% of voters, and placed turnout at 63.75%; some opposition leaders including former PM Pahimi Padacké and former minister Yaya Dillo 26 Dec contested figures before Supreme Court, which nonetheless validated results 28 Dec.

Accusation of Chadian interference in Sudanese conflict soured bilateral relations. Sudanese army and foreign affairs ministry late Nov-early Dec alleged Chad is facilitating United Arab Emirates’ support to paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. N’Djamena vehemently denied allegation and 16 Dec expelled four Sudanese diplomats. Khartoum immediately took reciprocal action and expelled three Chadian diplomats.

Several incidents of violence reported across country. In south, farmer-herder violence 7 Dec broke out in Koida village, Moyen-Chari province, with one dead and at least two injured, and 11 Dec left several people seriously injured in Birigui village, Logone Oriental province. Road blockers made comeback to Nord Kanem department, Kanem province in west near border with Niger, with 9 Dec attack on vehicle leaving at least two dead in Nokou locality.

Chad disengaged from region amid reconfiguration of Sahel security architecture. Amid pull-out of UN Mission (MINUSMA) from Mali, Chadian contingent 1 Dec returned home. Chad and Mauritania 6 Dec said exit of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from G5 Sahel means effective dissolution of anti-jihadist alliance created in 2014.

Opposition heavyweight Succès Masra returned from exile ahead of constitutional referendum due in December; N’Djamena faced growing risk of becoming embroiled in Sudan conflict.

Authorities allowed Succès Masra to return, prepared constitutional referendum. Succès Masra, leader of Les Transformateurs party, 3 Nov returned to Chad after year-long exile; agreement for his return, facilitated by Economic Community of Central African States, includes amnesty for all military and civilian actors involved in deadly violence of 20 Oct 2022, and Masra’s commitment to support transition process. Authorities 5 Nov released 72 members of Les Transformateurs who had been detained since 2022. Masra 19 Nov addressed hundreds of supporters in capital N’Djamena, urged “reconciliation” with military rulers. Civil society movement Wakit Tama refused to recognise amnesty, and Les Démocrates party leader rejected “fool’s agreement”, urged justice for victims of 2022 police crackdown. Meanwhile, govt 7 Nov published decree convening electorate for constitutional referendum scheduled for 16-17 Dec. Several opposition and civil society figures continued to denounce draft constitution’s focus on unitary state to the detriment of federal one, lack of participation of main political actors and hasty nature of census, which did not cover entire electorate, especially in southern provinces.

Chad denied taking sides in Sudan’s war amid mounting risk of destabilisation. Govt 6 Nov denied rumours that Chad and United Arab Emirates use Amdjarass airport to send military supply to Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti”’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Recent clashes in Sudan between RSF and Juba Peace Agreement signatories, whose members largely hail from Zaghawa community, could increase tensions between Arabs and Zaghawa in govt and military (see Sudan).

In another important development. Coordinated offensive launched in August by Libyan National Army and Chadian military continued to weaken rebel movement Front for Alternance and Concord in Chad (FACT). Prominent FACT leader Mahamat Barh Béchir Kendji late Oct or early Nov reportedly surrendered to Chadian authorities alongside between 130 and 1,000 combatants; FACT 9 Nov accused Kendji of treason.

Authorities arrested dozens after opposition leader announced imminent return from exile.

Interim President Déby strengthened grip on security apparatus. Déby 21 Sept and 9 Oct conducted two important army reshuffles, with 66 new generals appointed, majority of them from ruling clan. Meanwhile, online media Tchad One 7-8 Oct reported elements of elite force that includes presidential guard attempted to overthrow Déby; govt did not react to claim.

Opposition leader delayed return from exile amid crackdown on supporters. Succès Masra, exiled president of Les Transformateurs party, 5 Oct informed public security ministry of his return to Chad on 18 Oct. In response, police 8 Oct arrested over 70 party supporters, citing risk to public order. Govt 14 Oct said negotiations for Masra’s return were continuing under Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) auspices, and Masra next day announced postponing return until early Nov at request of ECCAS facilitator, Congolese President Tshisekedi. Security forces 20 Oct deployed to N’Djamena in anticipation of unrest on one-year anniversary of deadly crackdown on opposition protests. Kinshasa 31 Oct announced agreement between Chad’s govt and Masra for latter’s return.

Herder-farmer conflict flared up in Moyen-Chari province. After apparent lull in herder-farmer violence in Moyen-Chari province since Dec 2022, conflict between herders and farmers late Sept escalated in Korbol department, near Lake Iro, resulting in around ten people killed as rebel group Movement for Peace, Reconstruction and Development entered fray.

In other important developments. Amid growing hostility to French presence, over 20 leaders of political parties and civil society organisations, both in Chad and among diaspora, 10 Oct sent letter to Déby to request withdrawal of French troops from Chad.

Deadly incident at military base run by French forces sparked calls for departure of French troops; influx of Sudanese refugees continued to strain eastern provinces.

Constitutional referendum remained controversial. Opposition coalition led by Republican Platform leader, former minister Sidick Abdelkerim Haggar, 13 Sept called for boycott of constitutional referendum scheduled for 17 December. Another gathering of 15 major opposition parties 13 Sept denounced “violation of the principle of equality and uniqueness of place and time” as authorities 28 Aug-16 Sept conducted electoral census in country’s central and northern provinces after having covered southern provinces between 24 July and 6 Aug.

Killing of Chadian soldier sparked calls for French troops’ departure. French soldier 5 Sept shot and killed Chadian soldier in French military base in Faya city, Borkou province, allegedly in self-defence. Angry residents 5-6 Sept took to the streets in protest and tried to make their way into French base, prompting Chadian security forces to use live ammunition to disperse gathering. Chadian and French armies 6 Sept announced joint investigation into incident. Coalition of opposition parties and civil society organisations Wakit Tama 7 Sept denounced “murder” and called for withdrawal of French troops.

Eastern provinces continued to face humanitarian fallout of Sudan war. International Organisation for Migration 11 Sept said 400,000 people had crossed border into Chad since beginning of war in Sudan, including at least 62,300 Chadian returnees. UN humanitarian agency 12 Sept published revised Humanitarian Response Plan for Chad, with required funds increasing from $674.9mn to $920.6mn. World Bank same day announced new funding of $340mn to help Chad cope with influx of Sudanese refugees and support host communities.

In other important developments. Opposition figure Succès Masra, head of Les Transformateurs political party, late Sept said he would return to Chad no later than 20 October one-year anniversary of crackdown on protests.

Amid renewed hostilities in northern Tibesti region, prominent rebel group declared an end to 2021 ceasefire with govt.

Two-year ceasefire between FACT and govt collapsed. Military mid-Aug bombed position of prominent Libya-based rebel group, Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT), in northern Tibesti region, reportedly killing three rebels. FACT 18-19 Aug denounced act of war and called off 2021 unilateral ceasefire, vowing “quick, powerful and uncompromising” reaction. In televised address from frontline, Interim President Déby 20 Aug vowed to personally lead battle against FACT if rebels do not put down arms. Meanwhile, another Libya-based rebel group, Military Command Council for the Salvation of the Republic (CCMSR), 10 Aug conducted offensive on Wour, Kouri and Kouri-Zaou army bases in Tibesti, leaving unknown number of soldiers killed and allegedly capturing 23; CCMSR 28 Aug announced death of two senior leaders in airstrike conducted 17 Aug in northern Chad. Libyan National Army led by Khalifa Haftar late Aug announced offensive against positions of Chadian rebels in southern Libya, said operation conducted in coordination with Chadian authorities.

Jihadist, communal and other violence continued to take toll on civilians. Boko Haram 5 Aug beheaded four captives after their families failed to pay ransom in Lac province (west). Chieftaincy dispute between two sub-clans of Mbaye community next day turned violent in Bekourou locality, Mandoul province (south), leaving four dead and 35 injured. Clashes between pastoral herders and local farmers 18-19 Aug left at least ten people dead in Abkhoura village, Mangalme department, Guera province (south). Meanwhile, Logone Oriental province (also south) saw several attacks by unidentified armed men, with two Arab herders and one farmer killed 13-14 Aug.

Exiled opposition leader announced homecoming. Succès Masra, president of opposition party Les Transformateurs, 10 Aug announced his imminent return from exile — where he has lived since October 2022 crackdown on protesters — and outlined intention to prioritise dialogue and national reconciliation. Minister of Reconciliation and Social Cohesion Abderaman Koulamallah 18 Aug said authorities would guarantee Masra’s security.

In other important developments. Prominent Fulani rebel leader from southern Chad, Baba Laddé, 22 Aug called on all “patriotic forces” to unite for “national uprising” against Déby.

Interim President Déby moved to consolidate control over armed forces and authorities scheduled constitutional referendum for December, while communal violence persisted.

Déby appeared to set the stage for possible presidential candidacy. In apparent attempt to secure better control of armed forces, Interim President Gen. Déby throughout June and July retired at least 100 generals and promoted similar number of younger officers close to him to rank of general. In Paris-based weekly news magazine Jeune Afrique, African Union Commission Chairperson (and former Chadian FM) Moussa Faki 17 July said military leaders of transition should not stand for election, reiterated need to hand over power to civilians. Authorities 17 July scheduled constitutional referendum for 17 December, while civil society continued to accused transitional govt of trying to impose unitary state.

Transitional authorities advanced reconciliation agenda. As part of transition’s national reconciliation agenda, govt late June-early July set up national commission in charge of disarming politico-military groups and reintegrating their personnel into national army, and another one tasked with national reconciliation and social cohesion. Déby 17 July pardoned 110 individuals sentenced to jail terms for alleged involvement in 20 October 2022 protests.

Intercommunal violence persisted. Clashes between Arab and Moubi communities 1-3 July left at least seven civilians dead in and around Kouka and Iregué localities in Mangalmé department, Guéra region.

Sudanese exodus continued to strain Chad’s humanitarian capacity. UN Deputy Sec Gen Amina Mohammed 18-19 July visited Chad, met with Déby and PM Saleh Kebzabo and reiterated call on international community to increase support for Sudanese refugees in Chad. World Food Programme 11 July announced scaling up its response on Chad-Sudan border to support surge of people fleeing from Sudan, as UN refugee agency 23 July counted over 329,000 Sudanese refugees in Chad.

Govt forces and rebel groups engaged in week-long fighting in northern region in worst episode of rebel violence since 2021 offensive.

Rebel violence resurged in Tibesti region in north. Rebel groups National Front for Democracy and Justice in Chad (FNDJT) and Military Command Council for the Salvation of the Republic (CCMSR), both of which took part in 2022 Doha dialogue but refused to sign ensuing peace deal with transitional govt, 31 May-6 June clashed with armed forces in Tibesti. Army 7 June said fighting left 23 rebels dead, while eight soldiers suffered injuries; rebels 6 June claimed 15 soldiers killed, later announced death of one FNDJT senior commander.

Suspected criminal violence affected eastern regions. In Guéra region, unidentified assailants 3 June killed four civilians in attack on agricultural project team near Iregué locality (Mangalmé department); mob 15 June attacked Mangalmé prison and lynched two alleged perpetrators. In Sila region, unidentified gunmen 7 June killed two security personnel in Hadjer Marfain locality (Kimiti department), while dispute over local chief’s succession 14 June reportedly left two dead and 30 injured in Djourouf Al Ahmar department.

Fallout from Sudan conflict increased risk of tribal clashes along border. Security services 11 June arrested Allamine Adoudou, Chad’s former ambassador to Egypt and prominent opposition leader, over comments supporting Chadian Arab tribesmen fighting alongside Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan. Lt. Gen. Shams al-Din Kabbashi, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Sudanese Armed Forces, 9 June accused RSF of recruiting mercenaries from Arab tribes notably in Chad. NGO Doctors without Borders 16 June said over 600 war-wounded Sudanese in last three days arrived in Adré town in Ouaddaï region (east). UN human rights representative late June said 120,000 Sudanese refugees have arrived to Chad since 15 April, warned UN camps in country only had capacity for 90,000.

In other important developments. Council of Ministers 2 June and National Transitional Council 27 June approved preliminary draft constitution ahead of constitutional referendum due in Nov. Several political and civil society opposition groups immediately said proposed text, which retains unitary state, contradicts recommendations of Inclusive National Dialogue, according to which form of the state was to be decided by referendum.