Tensions escalated between High Representative and Bosnian Serb leader over proposed changes to election law, with latter threatening to paralyse state-level decision-making.

Crisis erupted days after European Council 21 March approved opening of formal negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) to join bloc. High Representative Christian Schmidt, responsible for overseeing implementation of Dayton peace accords, 26 March imposed changes to state-level Election Law, designed to clamp down on fraud and abuse. In response, Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik 28 March threatened to paralyse decision-making in BiH and withdraw from armed forces and other state organs unless number of demands are met, including withdrawal of legislation within seven days and expulsion of Schmidt from country, alongside UK, German and U.S. ambassadors. Republika Srpska lawmakers 29 March subsequently adopted their own version of election law, which Dodik said would come into force on 16 April if demands not met. U.S. Embassy in capital Sarajevo same day condemned move, warning law would “usurp state-level competencies and create a parallel electoral system” and accused Dodik of launching “direct attack on the state structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina”.

U.S. sanctioned Bosnian Serb leader’s family and patronage network.

U.S. 20 Oct imposed sanctions on two children of Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik and four companies under their management. Washington accused them of facilitating Dodik’s “ongoing corruption” in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (BiH) Republika Srpska (RS) entity, enabling him “to siphon public funds from the RS and enrich himself and his family at the expense of BiH citizens and functional governance in the country”.

U.S. sanctioned four Bosnian Serb officials for undermining Dayton Peace Agreement.

U.S. 31 July sanctioned four Bosnian Serb officials for “encouraging” passage of law allowing self-governing entity Republika Srpska to ignore decisions made by country’s Constitutional Court. U.S. said in statement that “move threatens the stability, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina”, “the hard-won peace underpinned by the Dayton Peace Agreement” and “the country’s future trajectory”.

Lawmakers in Republika Srpska voted to reject state-level court rulings amid growing fears of secession.

Bosnian Serb lawmakers voted to reject top court rulings. National Assembly of self-governing entity Republika Srpska (RS) 27 June voted to suspend rulings by Bosnia and Herzegovina’s constitutional court. Serb leader Milorad Dodik, who had long threatened to withdraw from state institutions, 23 June initiated vote after court 19 June changed rules to allow it to convene sessions and make decisions without judges from RS (same rules apply for Bosniak or Croat judges), a move Dodik dismissed as “unconstitutional”. National Assembly’s decision prompted widespread condemnation amid fears RS is moving toward secession. Notably, House of Representatives Speaker Denis Zvizdic 27 June called decision “a direct attack” on constitution and “the beginning of secession”; other govts, notably U.S., same day denounced “reckless attack on the Dayton Peace Agreement”, while EU 28 June said decision is “without legal basis” and marks “clear departure from the expectations that accompanied the granting of EU candidate status”.

RS National Assembly voted to no longer recognise rulings of high representative. RS lawmakers 21 June amended laws allowing entity to no longer recognise decisions made by Bosnia and Herzegovina’s High Representative, Christian Schmidt, international overseer who enjoys broad powers over local authorities. Schmidt 19 June had warned them not to take such measures, saying “they will be sailing in heavy waters”.

Tensions flared in Republika Srpska amid alleged vote-rigging in presidential election, prompting street protests and ballot recount.

Bosnians 2 Oct headed to polls to vote in general elections, including presidential vote in Republika Srpska (RS), for which main contenders were Serb leader Milorad Dodik and Party of Democratic Progress (PDP) VP Jelena Trivic. Tensions began rising in RS after preliminary results 3 Oct showed Dodik on verge of electoral victory despite Trivic claiming victory night before, reportedly based on preliminary ballot count from number of polling stations. Amid reports of “irregularities”, Trivic alongside opposition parties Serbian Democratic Party and List for Justice and Order 5 Oct formally called for ballot recount. Meanwhile, opposition supporters 6, 9 Oct held protests in Banja Luka city, denouncing vote-rigging. Central Electoral Commission 10 Oct ordered recount in all polling stations in Serb entity; move escalated tensions further, with thousands of Dodik supporters 25 Oct taking to streets and demanding end to recount, during which Dodik reiterated his “belief in the idea of an independent Republika Srpska”. Electoral Commission 27 Oct declared Dodik winner.

German govt promised military reinforcements for EU mission to support country’s stability, while tensions over bid for EU candidacy status flared. In first troop contribution in ten years to Operation Althea (EU-led military mission overseeing 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement), German govt 15 June approved deployment of up to 50 soldiers to join operation amid concerns over country’s stability; deployment, which awaits parliamentary approval, would last until 30 June 2023. Following European Commission’s decision 17 June to back Ukraine and Moldova for EU candidate status, Slovenia 20 June said it would seek same offer for Bosnia during EU leaders summit 23-24 June in Belgian capital Brussels to “reaffirm the EU’s commitment to the Western Balkans”; statement followed comments made by Croatian President Milanović during Prespa Dialogue Forum in North Macedonia 16-18 June that “constant postponement is destroying that country”. Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik 22 June threatened to pull out of agreement made 12 June between top Bosnian politicians to work together toward EU membership if country did not receive candidate status. EU leaders, however, did not grant candidate status and said country must first implement commitments set out in agreement and finalise constitutional and electoral reform; Dodik 24 June accused some EU leaders of seeing “Bosnia and Herzegovina as a colony”.

Concerns over secession continued as Republika Srpska (RS) moved to establish independent judicial body. Republika Srpska’s parliament 1 Feb adopted resolution to reverse Bosnian Serb representatives’ boycott of federal institutions imposed in July 2021, yet required representatives to follow RS policy. In further provocative measure and challenge to state’s central authority, Republika Srpska assembly 10 Feb approved draft law to establish entity’s own High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council to oversee appointment of judges and prosecutors; draft bill will undergo period of public consultation. Move immediately triggered international condemnation. Peace Implementation Council, international body established to oversee implementation of 1995 Dayton Peace Accord, 10 Feb said such law would create “unconstitutional body, jeopardizing fundamental legal rights of all Bosnia-Herzegovina citizens”. U.S. embassy in Sarajevo same day said move would “allow criminals to prosper and corruption to flourish”. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell 11 Feb urged Bosnia and Herzegovina’s three main leaders to resume “serious and meaningful dialogue” and 20 Feb warned “situation in Bosnia is more worrying than ever”. Croatian National Parliament 19 Feb threatened to boycott Oct elections and start process of forming autonomous region unless electoral law is amended to strengthen Croat representation and comply with court rulings. EU’s peacekeeping mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina 24 Feb added 500 troops as a “precautionary measure” citing risks of spreading “instability to Bosnia and Herzegovina” amid threats to European security (see Ukraine).

Republika Srpska held controversial celebrations marking 30th anniversary of its creation, while Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik indicated possible return to federal institutions. Following moves toward separatism in recent months, U.S. Treasury Dept 5 Jan imposed new sanctions on Milorad Dodik, Dodik-linked media outlet Alternativna Televizija, and two other officials for “significant corruption and destabilizing activities”. Bosnian Serbs 9 Jan celebrated 30th anniversary of Republika Srpska’s creation in 1992 in defiance of international pressure and two Constitutional Court rulings declaring holiday unconstitutional. During celebrations, which counted guests from Russia, China, Serbia and France’s National Rally far-right party, police parade marched through Banja Luka town; reports surfaced of riots, Bosnian Serbs singing nationalist and Islamophobic songs as well as gunfire near mosques. In response, EU 10 Jan condemned leaders’ “negative, divisive and inflammatory rhetoric” and threatened possible sanctions; Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe 12 Jan warned against “all acts that carry the potential to incite conflict”, while UN high commissioner for human rights 14 Jan said UN was “deeply concerned”. After Dodik met Serbian President Vučić 14 Jan, who urged him to participate in state institutions, Dodik announced that Republika Srpska National Assembly would consider return to institutions next month. Vučić and Turkish President Erdoğan 18 Jan agreed to broker Bosnian talks after Serbia’s April election. Separately, protesters 10 Jan rallied in 35 cities across 14 countries demanding international community prevent Bosnia’s break up.

Republika Srpska National Assembly passed controversial resolution in step toward secession, raising tensions and provoking international condemnation. Despite warnings from international community and opposition boycotts, 49 of 83 Republika Srpska (RS) National Assembly MPs 10 Dec approved resolution – backed by Bosnian Serb state-level presidency leader Milorad Dodik and RS President Željka Cvijanović – to withdraw from Bosnian army, security services, tax system and judiciary; decision entails transferring powers away from central institutions and leaves six-month period to draft new laws on armed forces, judiciary and tax system. In response, opposition Serb Democratic Party leader Mirko Sarovic described move as “direct threat to peace” that would lead RS “into the spiral of war”. Western govts – namely Germany, UK, U.S., France, Italy – and EU labelled resolution “a further escalatory step” and threatened new sanctions; German FM Annalena Baerbock 13 Dec called for EU to impose sanctions on Dodik, but Dodik showed indifference and said sanctions would lead them to their “true friends”. Bosnian NGO Žene žrtve rata and Institute for Research of Genocide Canada 14 Dec filed charge against Dodik at State Prosecutor’s Office for “undermining the constitutional order and jeopardising the country’s territorial integrity” as well as for mutiny and illegal formation of military forces.

High representative warned of Bosnia’s possible break-up, while U.S. and Germany threatened sanctions in bid to forestall separatist moves. In report submitted to UN Security Council on 2 Nov, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina Christian Schmidt warned that Bosnia could face biggest “existential threat of the post-war period” and that “prospect of further division and conflict are very real”; Schmidt 6 Nov warned situation in Bosnia threatened unrest in region and that “there is a risk that the country will break apart”. UN Security Council 3 Nov unanimously renewed mandate of 600-strong EU-led peacekeeping force EUFOR to Bosnia and Herzegovina for one year. Hungarian PM Orban and FM Peter Szijjarto same day met Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik and Republika Srpska PM Radovan Viskovic to discuss “current situation in Bosnia”. Dodik 8 Nov met U.S. Deputy Assistant Sec State Gabriel Escobar, who said parties agreed “there will be no war”. German FM Heiko Maas 12 Nov threatened to suspend financial support for Bosnia and said Germany would consider “individual measures against those who question the territorial integrity” of country. Likewise, U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 16 Nov announced U.S. may impose sanctions for “moves to unilaterally withdraw from state-level institutions or otherwise destabilize” Dayton Peace Agreement; Dodik reacted saying: “We are sticking with our policy” and that Bosnian Serbs “no longer cared” about threats.