CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Riyadh reiterated that recognition of Palestinian state must come before normalisation with Israel, as regional diplomacy aimed at ceasefire in Gaza continued.

Riyadh continued diplomatic pressure for Palestinian state and Gaza ceasefire. Foreign Ministry 7 Feb said it will not resume diplomatic relations with Israel unless Palestinian state is recognised along 1967 borders. Riyadh 8 Feb hosted summit with FMs of Egypt, Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Palestinian representative to discuss using reconstruction funding for Gaza as leverage for ceasefire. Saudi Arabia 16 Feb attended Munich Security Conference to discuss so-called “day-after” plans. Despite U.S. insistence that Houthi attacks on shipping in Red Sea are independent from Gaza, Saudi FM 13 Feb said attacks were linked and reiterated call for ceasefire (see Yemen).

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Riyadh conditioned normalisation with Israel on Palestinian statehood, while Germany further loosened restrictions on exporting offensive weapons to kingdom.

Riyadh publicly toughened stance on price of normalisation with Israel. During regional tour, U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 8 Jan met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Al-Ula city to discuss war in Gaza and hostilities in Red Sea; Blinken said Saudi Arabia and other regional states remained opened to building diplomatic ties with Israel but Israel must first end Gaza war and work toward Palestinian state – marking first time senior U.S. official explicitly linked Palestinian statehood with normalisation. Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to UK, Prince Khaled bin Bandar, next day reiterated Riyadh was open to normalisation but “we can’t live with Israel without a Palestinian state”. Survey conducted by Washington Institute for Near East Policy in Nov-Dec found 96% of Saudis believe Arab countries should cut all ties with Israel in protest of Gaza war (see Israel-Palestine).

Germany supplied offensive weapons, citing Israel’s security. After U.S. officials late Dec announced preparations to loosen ban on offensive weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, German FM Annalena Baerbock 7 Jan said Germany would stop blocking sale of Eurofighters to Riyadh, citing its “constructive attitude toward Israel” amid reports Saudi Air Force had shot down Houthi projectiles fired at Israel (see Yemen). Germany 10 Jan announced it approved export of 150 Iris-T guided missiles, resuming arms sales banned in response to 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Kingdom continued rapprochement with Iran against backdrop of escalation in Red Sea, while Russian President Putin visited capital Riyadh.

Riyadh and Tehran reasserted commitment to normalisation. Saudi Arabia’s and Iran’s deputy FMs 15 Dec held tripartite meeting in Chinese capital Beijing to reassert commitment to normalisation deal brokered in March 2023. Iran previous day announced it would lift visa restrictions for 33 states, including Saudi Arabia, while Iranian pilgrims from 19 Dec were allowed to complete Umrah pilgrimage in Mecca city for first time in eight years. Despite improvement in relations between pair, Riyadh fears regional escalation as result of Israel’s war in Gaza and reportedly asked U.S. to show restraint in responding to attacks in Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthis; regional media reports mid Dec surfaced accusing U.S. of putting pressure on Riyadh to postpone deal with Houthis and join maritime task force in Red Sea (see Yemen).

Crown Prince met Putin. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman 6 Dec met Putin in capital Riyadh to discuss oil, trade, Ukraine, and Israel-Hamas war. Mohammed bin Salman 13 Dec met U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to discuss Gaza crisis.

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia hosted Arab-Islamic diplomatic initiative amid Israel’s onslaught in Gaza, while leaving door open to resume normalisation process with Israel.

Riyadh hosted summit on Gaza, stopping short of concrete steps against Israel. After noticeable absence from humanitarian and diplomatic initiatives, govt 2 Nov launched humanitarian aid campaign for Gaza. Riyadh 11 Nov hosted joint Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit, which condemned “Israeli aggression” and demanded halting weapons export to Israel; Saudi Arabia reportedly refrained from voting for concrete measures against Israel, including cutting diplomatic and economic ties. Meanwhile, Saudi Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih 8 Nov said normalisation with Israel “remains on the table” but depends on peaceful resolution of Palestinian question.

Saudi and Iranian leaders met for first time since restoration of ties in March. In first for Iranian president in eleven years, Iran’s President Raisi 11 Nov met Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman in Riyadh on sidelines of Arab League-OIS summit to discuss bilateral relations and situation in Gaza.

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Riyadh criticised Israel following outbreak of war with Hamas, which likely indefinitely postponed Saudi-Israel normalisation process.

Saudi Arabia called for de-escalation in Gaza, condemned Israel. Following outbreak of war between Hamas and Israel on 7 Oct (see Israel-Palestine), Saudi Arabia 7 Oct called for de-escalation and condemned Israel’s “continued occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and the repetition of systematic provocations against its sanctities”. After Israel 13 Oct ordered over 1m Palestinian in northern Gaza to evacuate south, Riyadh 13 Oct affirmed its “categorical rejection of the calls for the forcible displacement”. Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman 15 Oct met U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken in capital Riyadh to discuss conflict; 20 Oct met United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed in Riyadh. Meanwhile, sources reported that normalisation efforts with Israel were put on ice, although FM Faisal bin Farhan 24 Oct asserted “the Arabs are serious” about returning to a peace process and U.S. President Biden and Mohammad Bin Salman in call same day agreed to build on “the work that was already under way”.

Saudi and Iranian leaders held phone call. Mohammad Bin Salman 11 Oct spoke directly with Iranian President Raisi for first time since restoration of diplomatic ties in March, stressing kingdom was engaging “with all international and regional parties to halt the ongoing escalation” in Israel-Palestine.

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Govt and Israel reportedly inched toward normalisation deal, ambassador to Iran commenced diplomatic duties, and officials hosted Houthi delegation for first time.

Saudi Arabia and Israel signalled progress on possible normalisation deal. First official Israeli delegation 10 Sept arrived in capital Riyadh for UNESCO World Heritage Committee meeting. In first public visit by Israeli cabinet minister, tourism minister 26 Sept arrived in Riyadh to attend UN World Tourism Organization event. In interview with U.S. broadcaster, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman 20 Sept said normalisation with Israel was getting closer “every day”. Israeli FM next day said normalisation deal could be in place “in first quarter of 2024” but U.S. officials cautioned that “there’s some way to travel” before reaching agreement. Amid reported progress, Palestinian delegation 6 and 14 Sept visited Saudi Arabia, requesting measures on Palestinian statehood be included in any deal with Israel. Saudi delegation 26-27 Sept visited occupied West Bank for first time in three decades; first Saudi ambassador to Palestine 26 Sept presented credentials to PA President Abbas (see Israel-Palestine).

Tehran and Riyadh exchanged ambassadors; officials held talks with Houthis. Fulfilling terms of reconciliation deal in March, albeit three months later than planned, Saudi ambassador to Iran and Iranian ambassador to Saudi Arabia 5 Sept commenced official duties in respective capitals. Riyadh 14-19 Sept hosted Houthi delegation and Omani mediators for political talks in first visit by rebels since outbreak of war (see Yemen).

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Govt pursued normalisation process with Iran and cracked down on freedom of expression at home.

Iranian-Saudi rapprochement made progress as normalisation with Syria stalled. Iranian FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian 17 Aug met Saudi counterpart in capital Riyadh, describing relations “on the right track”; Amir-Abdollahian next day met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in highest-level talks since March reconciliation. Reports during month indicated Saudi Arabia delayed opening of embassy in Syria, which was reportedly planned for June. Amid talk of U.S. efforts to secure normalisation deal with Israel, Saudi Arabia 12 Aug named its ambassador to Jordan, Nayef al-Sudairi, non-resident envoy to Palestine. Riyadh 5-6 Aug hosted Ukraine “peace summit”. BRICS 24 Aug invited Saudi Arabia alongside other nations, including Iran, United Arab Emirates and Egypt, to join bloc.

Govt continued domestic crackdown. Amid series of arrests of social media personalities, authorities early Aug arrested public health expert and social media influencer, Mohammed Al Hajji, before releasing him on 15 Aug; arrests point to authorities’ attempt to stifle perceived criticism of govt policies. Human Rights Watch 21 Aug alleged Saudi border guards conducted “widespread and systematic” killings of hundreds of Ethiopian migrants between March 2022 and June 2023.

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Arabia Tensions with United Arab Emirates (UAE) continued to surface, while govt engaged Iran.

Rising tensions with UAE came to light. The Wall Street Journal 18 July reported that Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman (MBS) during off-record press conference in Dec 2022 said UAE “stabbed us in the back” and that he would “take punitive steps” after sending list of demands to UAE; the news surfaced during period of rising Saudi-UAE economic competition and tensions over key issues, including Yemen and oil policy.

Riyadh continued diplomacy with Iran. Oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman 5 July reportedly discussed bilateral relations with Iranian counterpart on sidelines of OPEC conference in Austrian capital Vienna. State media 4 July cited foreign ministry affirming Saudi Arabia and Kuwait’s exclusive claim to Durra gas field in Gulf maritime “Divided Area” and called on Iran to negotiate demarcation of area’s eastern border.

In other important developments. UN human rights experts 7 July called for release of two Saudi women jailed for critical tweets. Saudi Arabia 18 July agreed to purchase Turkish drones in biggest defence contract in Turkish history (see Türkiye).

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Reconciliation with Iran continued, while dialogue with Yemen’s Huthis remained stalled and tensions surfaced with United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Iran reopened embassy in Riyadh. Three months after signing China-brokered reconciliation deal, Iran 6 June reopened embassy in Riyadh to end seven-year diplomatic absence. Saudi FM Faisal bin Farhan 17 June visited Iranian capital Tehran and described discussions as “positive and clear”; Saudi embassy in Iran has yet to open. Iranian navy commander 3 June claimed Iran would form naval alliance with India, Pakistan and Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia.

Talks remained deadlocked with Huthis, friction with UAE became visible. Although dialogue with Huthis remained stalled, first direct flight between Yemen and Saudi Arabia since 2016 17 June arrived in Jeddah city and Huthi media 21 June reported Saudi Arabia and Huthis exchanged bodies of fighters (see Yemen). Tensions between Saudi Arabia and UAE behind scenes intensified over differences in approaches to Yemen and Sudan crises, with Riyadh accusing Abu Dhabi of undermining conflict resolution efforts.

In other important developments. Saudi Arabia 4 June announced voluntary unilateral oil production cuts in July. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 6-8 June visited Saudi Arabia for meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Riyadh 11-12 June hosted Arab-China business conference.

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Kingdom reestablished ties with Syria and welcomed President Assad back into Arab fold, while continuing rapprochement with Iran.

Riyadh resumed relations with Damascus, continued normalisation with Iran. After Arab League 7 May readmitted Syria, Saudi Arabia 9 May announced it would reopen diplomatic mission in Syrian capital Damascus and next day invited Syrian President Assad to Arab League summit in capital Riyadh. Assad 18 May arrived in Jeddah and next day attended Arab League summit after 12-year suspension (see Syria). Meanwhile, Iranian foreign ministry 1 May announced initial diplomatic activities had resumed at Iranian embassy in Riyadh. Iranian FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian 10 May said Saudi Arabia previous day named new ambas-sador to Tehran and Iran would appoint ambassador to Riyadh “soon”, as 10 May deadline passed without officially reopening embassies and appointing ambassadors. Iranian finance minister 11 May led economic delegation to Jeddah in first visit by Iranian official since March agreement to resume ties. Saudi Arabia and Canada 24 May agreed to restore full diplomatic relations after five years.

In other important developments. Negotiations with Huthis in Yemen stalled (see Yemen). Jeddah hosted joint U.S.-Saudi-led talks beginning 6 May between Sudan’s warring parties (see Sudan). In sign of improving ties, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan 7 May met Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman in Jeddah to discuss “strategic relations” and “significant progress” in Yemen war. Amnesty International 16 May said number of executions in Saudi Arabia in 2022 was highest recorded in 30 years.

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