Expert opinion recommending EU court to cancel partnership deal over Western Sahara dealt blow to Morocco; Polisario threatened to sue Spain over possible airspace management transfer.

EU legal adviser backed cancellation of Morocco-EU partnership agreement over Western Sahara. Advocate General for EU Court of Justice Tamara Ćapeta 21 March recommended court to cancel 2019 EU Sustainable Fisheries Partnership Agreement with Morocco as agreement failed “to treat territory of Western Sahara as ‘separate and distinct’ from Morocco”. Ćapeta highlighted that agreement should treat Western Sahara as separate territory from Morocco, also recommended that EU negotiates with Morocco (and not necessarily with Polisario Front) as “administering power” on behalf of local population. Overall, she recommended case be sent to lower court for further discussion. Court of Justice will issue ruling based on this recommendation in coming weeks. 

Polisario threatened legal action against Spain over airspace management transfer. Polisario front representative in Switzerland’s Geneva city 10 March threatened to sue Spain before international judicial bodies if it goes ahead with plans to transfer management of Western Sahara airspace to Morocco.

UN Envoy continued consultations to revive peace process as international pressure on Morocco and Polisario Front independent movement continued to fade.

De Mistura’s South Africa visit drew Morocco’s ire. UN Envoy Staffan de Mistura 1 Feb visited South Africa, one of Polisario Front independence movement’s main sponsors, in likely attempt to explore what leverage he has over Polisario and put pressure on Rabat by broadening his consultations. Moroccan ambassador to UN, Omar Hilale, 3 Feb condemned trip, said de Mistura ignored Rabat’s “categorical opposition” to visit and “rejection of any interaction with Pretoria on the subject of the Moroccan Sahara question”.

Growing gap between Polisario leadership and more radical activists came to fore. In interview to Spanish left-wing outlet, Nueva Revolución, Mansur Omar, Polisario Front representative to European Union, 10 Feb said Polisario was trying to contain intensity of conflict with Morocco to avoid stoking regional tensions and broaden conflict. Statement, which contradicted conclusions of Jan 2023 Polisario congress calling for military escalation with Morocco, triggered vocal opposition from some Polisario activists, who accused Omar and Polisario leadership of letting down fight for independence of Western Sahara.

Reports of Moroccan artillery movement fuelled speculation of possible military operation in Western Sahara; Rabat secured chairmanship of UN Human Rights Council.

Media reports emerged of possible Moroccan military operation in buffer zone. Spanish newspaper La Razón 16 Jan reported movement of heavy artillery in Bir Gandouz area in Morocco-controlled Western Sahara. Local sources indicated Morocco might be preparing limited operation against Polisario Front independence movement inside UN-monitored buffer zone, while Moroccan press speculated Rabat may want to take over buffer zone, which could spark escalation with Algeria. Meanwhile, drone allegedly fired by Moroccan military 31 Dec killed three Mauritanian civilians in Guerguera area, Morocco-controlled Western Sahara. In retaliation, Mauritania early Jan reportedly increased customs duties applied to Moroccan goods entering Mauritania through Guerguera border crossing.

Rabat scored symbolic win at UN Human Rights Council. Morocco 10 Jan secured chairmanship of UN Human Rights Council despite strong opposition from Algeria and South Africa, who argued situation in Western Sahara and Rabat’s human rights record make country unfit to preside over intergovernmental body.

In renewed effort for Western Sahara conflict resolution, U.S. administration dispatched key North Africa diplomat to conduct new round of consultations with Algeria and Morocco.

U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary for North Africa, Joshua Harris, 7 Dec met with Algerian FM Ahmed Attaf in capital Algiers, and 17 Dec met with Moroccan FM Nasser Bourita in capital Rabat. Washington’s engagement with both Algeria and Morocco is part of U.S. efforts to take more balanced stance on Western Sahara dispute in context where regional repercussions of Gaza war increase risk of escalation.

Polisario Front independence movement launched rare rocket attacks in Morocco-controlled Western Sahara.

Four explosions overnight 28-29 Oct struck Moroccan-controlled city of Smara; Polisario claimed rocket attacks, said it targeted military infrastructures, but rockets hit residential areas, leaving one civilian dead and three others injured. New round of attacks reported 5 Nov in same area, with no casualties. Moroccan authorities opened investigation into blasts and FM Nasser Bourita 15 Nov said investigation’s outcome will inform Morocco’s response.

UN Security Council renewed MINURSO mandate.

UN Sec Gen António Guterres’ annual report on Western Sahara 3 Oct highlighted UN envoy Staffan de Mistura’s continuing efforts to relaunch UN-led peace process. UN Security Council 30 Oct voted to extend mandate of UN mission (MINURSO) for another year until 31 Oct 2024; resolution won support of 13 of 15 Security Council members, with Russia and Mozambique abstaining, as council remains divided on Western Sahara crisis.

UN envoy Staffan de Mistura visited Morocco-controlled Western Sahara for first time since appointment two years ago in bid to revive stalled political process on disputed territory.

UN envoy visited Morocco-controlled Western Sahara for first time. Ahead of UN Security Council meeting on Western Sahara in October, UN envoy for Western Sahara, Staffan de Mistura, 4 Sept began first visit to Morocco-controlled Western Sahara since 2021 appointment; de Mistura had renounced previous trips due to Rabat-imposed restrictions on meeting list.

U.S. redoubled engagement to advance UN-led political process. U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary for North Africa, Joshua Harris, 31 Aug-4 Sept visited Algeria and Morocco to support UN efforts to revive peace process; Harris notably met with Polisario Front independence movement leader, Brahim Ghali, in Sahrawi refugee camps of Tindouf (Algeria).

In other important developments. At UN General Assembly, heated exchange 26 Sept took place between Algerian and Moroccan representatives over Western Sahara.

Polisario Front independence movement leader attended summit of BRICS bloc of emerging economies in South Africa.

Amid tense relations between South Africa and Morocco, president of self-proclaimed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic and Polisario Front independence movement leader, Brahim Ghali, 22-24 Aug attended summit of BRICS bloc of emerging economies in South African city of Johannesburg. Earlier in month, Morocco’s state news agency MAP 19 Aug denied South Africa’s FM Anil Sooklal’s claim that Morocco was among countries seeking to join BRICS, said Morocco would not send delegation to BRICS summit in South Africa.

In new diplomatic victory, Morocco secured Israel’s recognition of its sovereignty over Western Sahara.

Israel recognised Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara. Israel 17 July recognised Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, also announced appointment of military attaché in Rabat liaison office, which suggests impending full upgrade of diplomatic relations. Algiers 20 July criticised move as “blatant violation of international law” that “can in no way legitimise sovereignty over occupied Sahara lands” (see Algeria). Moroccan King Mohammed VI 29 July welcomed Israel’s decision while calling for “return to normality” with Algeria and “opening of borders between the two neighbouring, sister countries and peoples”.

EU-Morocco fishing deal expired. Fishing protocol to EU-Morocco association agreement 17 July expired and was not renewed pending EU Court of Justice’s final decision on legality of including Western Sahara in protocol; expiration leaves European trawlers without license to fish in Moroccan and Western Saharan waters.

Attack reported in Morocco-controlled Western Sahara for first time since ceasefire collapsed in Nov 2020.

Bombing reportedly damaged phosphate facility in Western Sahara. NGO Western Sahara Resource Watch late May reported explosion in Morocco-controlled Western Sahara destroyed section of conveyor belt transporting phosphates from mine to export facility; neither Morocco nor Polisario Front independent movement commented on incident which, if confirmed, would be first attack in Moroccocontrolled Western Sahara since ceasefire collapsed in 2020 and highlight unexpected vulnerability of Morocco’s security apparatus.

Israel pledged to recognise Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. During visit to Morocco, Israeli Parliament Speaker Amir Ohana 8 June said Israel will soon support Morocco’s claim of sovereignty over Western Sahara; move could lead to full upgrade of Israeli-Moroccan ties, with countries’ respective missions, now designated as liaison offices, becoming embassies, and free trade agreement in medium term.