Fighting broke out between security forces aligned with rival political factions; President Embaló described incident as attempted coup.

Battle overnight 30 Nov-1 Dec erupted between National Guard and special forces in Bissau, leaving two dead. Tensions started to rise after Economy and Finance Minister Souleiman Seidi and Treasury Secretary Antonio Monteiro were detained 30 Nov over corruption allegations prompting National Guard, which reports to Interior Ministry aligned with Seidi’s African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), to free pair from police custody in capital Bissau. Fighting 1 Dec subsided by noon after army captured Seidi and Monteiro, as well as National Guard commander. President Embaló immediately called incident “attempted coup” and 4 Dec dissolved PAIGC-dominated parliament, requesting fresh elections without setting date. PAIGC leader and parliamentary speaker Domingos Simões Pereira same day labelled move unconstitutional, vowed to continue holding parliamentary sessions, and 8 Dec reported deputies were being blocked from accessing parliament. Security forces 13 Dec used tear gas to disperse group of PAIGC deputies and supporters attempting to enter parliament. Embaló 20 Dec sacked PM Geraldo Martins, later appointed new govt.

In new sign of rising political instability, President Sissoco Embaló dissolved parliament in bid to strengthen his hand amid tensions within ruling coalition. Embaló 16 May dissolved parliament, accusing MPs of “corruption, harmful administration and embezzlement”; same day said “persistent and unresolvable” differences between National Assembly and other govt branches created “space for guerrilla politics and plotting” and scheduled early parliamentary elections for 18 Dec. After Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) new stabilisation mission late April arrived in Guinea-Bissau, head of former ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), Domingos Simões Pereira, 4 May suggested deployment amounts to “invasion”, lamented ECOWAS bought into Embaló’s narrative of coup plot following early Feb attack on govt palace.

Murky attack on govt palace exposed fragility of President Sissoco Embaló’s seat and gave rise to competing narratives. Heavy gunfire 1 Feb broke out in capital Bissau near govt premises where Embaló and PM Nuno Nabiam were chairing cabinet meeting; Embaló hours later said govt forces had repelled attackers and declared situation under control; also suggested apparent “assassination attempt” aimed to end his fight against drug trafficking. Govt 2 Feb said 11 people killed in firefight, including four civilians; media reported seven security personnel, three civilians and one assailant killed; medical sources mentioned only eight killed. Embaló 10 Feb said three people previously detained by U.S. authorities on drug-trafficking charges were behind coup plot, including ex-Navy chief Bubo na Tchuto; also said all three had been arrested. Main opposition party African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cabo Verde (PAIGC) in following days expressed skepticism about president’s narrative, with party leader Domingos Simoes Pereira 3 Feb telling Deutsche Welle “such a coup would be an ideal pretext to intensify his purge of internal critics and opposition figures”; Prosecutor General’s Office 22 Feb barred Pereira from leaving country, citing legal cases against him. West Africa’s regional bloc, Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), 1 Feb condemned “coup attempt” and 3 Feb said it will deploy stabilising force to country.

NGOs accused authorities of suppressing dissent. NGO Committee to Protect Journalists 16 March said four unidentified gunmen 9 March abducted journalist António Aly Silva in capital Bissau and later beat him unconscious; President Embaló had reportedly called Silva few days before to complain about article critical of govt. NGO National Network of Human Rights Defenders in Guinea-Bissau 26 March denounced increasing violence against human rights activists, especially in country’s south.

Authorities issued international arrest warrant against opposition leader and intercommunal violence broke out near capital Bissau. Attorney General’s Office 18 Dec said it had issued international arrest warrant against runner-up in 2019 presidential election and leader of main opposition African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), Domingos Simões Pereira, without elaborating on charges against him; Pereira, who went into exile in Portugal in early 2020, had early Dec announced his intention to resume political activity in Guinea-Bissau. UN mission Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) ended 31 Dec; UNIOGBIS Head Rosine Sori-Coulibaly mid-Dec said UN would continue to guarantee safety of former PM Aristides Gomes, who took refuge in UN mission headquarters in early 2020. Meanwhile, President Embaló 16 Dec threatened to dissolve National Assembly and call for early legislative elections, due to boycott by PAIGC deputies of parliamentary session on 2021 budget. Intercommunal violence erupted near Bissau: ethnic Yunkun and Thun communities 29 Dec clashed over land dispute in Nhoma town, 25km north of Bissau, leaving at least four dead and several wounded. 

Former PM Aristides Gomes filed human rights complaint against govt.  Gomes’ lawyers 19 Nov said they had filed legal complaint to West Africa regional bloc ECOWAS alleging govt’s “forcible confinement” of Gomes at UN mission headquarters in capital Bissau, where he took refuge earlier this year as authorities initiated several investigations against him.

Amid harassment of civil society activists, opposition denounced judicial proceedings against former PM. Guinea-Bissau Human Rights League 6 Oct said unidentified individuals previous day abducted two civil society activists, Queba Sane and Carlos Sambu, near capital Bissau and released them next day; Attorney General Fernando Gomes 8 Oct promised investigation into circumstances of activists’ kidnapping; in joint press conference, Sane and Sambu 9 Oct said elements of presidential security service arbitrarily detained and beat them in presidential palace 5-6 Oct. Lusa news agency 13 Oct revealed Court of Appeals had put former PM Aristides Gomes under house arrest in Aug on suspicion of embezzlement; Gomes took refuge in UN mission headquarters in Bissau after being dismissed by President Embaló in Feb. Opposition African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde parliamentary leader Califa Seidi 21 Oct denounced govt persecution of Gomes, saying cases were being “forged” against him. Attorney General’s Office 30 Oct said Gomes was under investigation in three separate cases.

Following longstanding electoral dispute, Supreme Court confirmed Umaro Sissoko Embaló’s victory in 2019 presidential election. Supreme Court 7 Sept confirmed President Embaló’s victory in late 2019 election, rejecting challenger Domingos Simões Pereira’s appeal; election had sparked months-long standoff amid fraud allegations. Pereira same day acknowledged decision put end to electoral dispute but maintained allegations of electoral fraud. Regional bloc Economic Community of West African States mission in Guinea-Bissau (ECOMIB), whose mandate expired 10 Sept, continued to withdraw its troops from country. Amid international concern over resurgence of drug smuggling in Guinea-Bissau, police 11 Sept arrested head of migration agency, Colonel Alassana Diallo, on allegations of cocaine trafficking. Health authorities 14 Sept said COVID-19 situation was beginning to “stabilise” with number of new cases reaching plateau.

UN condemned stifling of dissent amid persistent standoff between govt and opposition. At UN Security Council meeting 10 Aug, Special Representative and Head of UN peacebuilding mission in Guinea-Bissau Rosine Sori-Coulibaly said “political crisis and parliamentary paralysis” since late-2019 presidential election has left country in fragile state, with “arbitrary arrests, intimidation and detention” of opponents, journalists and civil society leaders contributing to “hostile” atmosphere of mistrust; Sori-Coulibaly also warned that mandate of UN mission in Guinea-Bissau – which involves restoring political stability – will unlikely be fulfilled before it expires in Dec, and urged President Embaló to implement reforms outlined in 2016 Conakry agreement, which comprises constitutional revision aimed at establishing better checks and balances. At same meeting, UN Office on Drugs and Crime Executive Director Ghada Fathi Waly warned against resurgence of transatlantic cocaine trafficking in Guinea-Bissau, urged for coordinated response to make sure 2019 anti-trafficking achievements, including security operations which led to seizure of roughly 3 tonnes of cocaine, were not carried out in vain. Regional body Economic Community of West African States mission in Guinea-Bissau (ECOMIB) 27 Aug started to withdraw its troops from country; withdrawal due to be completed by Dec 2020.