Tracking Conflict Worldwide
Outlook for This Month August 2023
Conflict Risk Alerts
Trends for Last Month July 2023
Conflict in Focus
Our monthly conflict tracker highlights one conflict resolution opportunity in August.
- The Colombian government’s June ceasefire agreement with the National Liberation Army (ELN) is set to take full effect in August and will last for 180 days, making it the longest bilateral ceasefire ever concluded with the guerrilla group.
CrisisWatch identified five deteriorated situations in July.
- In Niger, presidential guards seized power from President Bazoum, extending the coup belt spanning the Sahel and deepening instability in the region.
- A crackdown on anti-government protests in Kenya left over 20 people dead as tensions spiked over tax hikes and the rising cost of living.
- In a major blow to Ukraine’s economy and global food security, Moscow withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative before launching a flurry of attacks on the country’s ports and grain facilities.
- Judicial and other interference in Guatemala’s presidential poll sparked a political crisis and protests as external actors decried manoeuvres to alter the country’s electoral process.
- President Lasso imposed emergency measures in Ecuador following the assassination of a local mayor and a fresh spate of prison violence, prompting a violent backlash from criminal groups.
Aside from the scores of conflict situations we usually cover, we tracked significant developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cambodia, Moldova, Nile Waters, Peru and Senegal.
Eritrean forces’ continued presence in Ethiopia’s Tigray region hindered peace process; President Isaias attended summits in Egypt and Russia amid efforts to boost international standing.
Eritrean forces maintained strategic positions in Tigray. Coalition of regional and international civil society organisations 10 July published report warning that peace deal in Ethiopia’s Tigray region is “marred by significant gaps” (see Ethiopia), including continued presence of Eritrean troops who were supposed to withdraw under terms of accord. Though Asmara mostly withdrew its forces in Feb 2023, it has maintained strategic positions in region and could still disrupt peace process, especially if Amhara-controlled Western Tigray is returned to Tigray’s administration.
Asmara’s efforts to bolster its international standing continued. In bid to play more active role in regional affairs, President Isaias 13 July attended Sudan’s Neighbouring States Summit in Egypt’s capital, Cairo, to discuss possible solutions to Sudan crisis. Summit ended with plan to establish ministerial mechanism, aimed at facilitating comprehensive peace agreement. Isaias 28 July met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on sidelines of Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg; leaders reportedly held “extensive discussions on bilateral ties and international matters of mutual importance”, including war in Ukraine.