CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month February 2023

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month January 2023

Improved Situations

Conflict in Focus

CrisisWatch warns of one conflict risk alert in February.

  • Hundreds of Sudan-based rebels entered the Central African Republic, fuelling fears of large-scale fighting and regional destabilisation. 

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights eight deteriorations in January.

  • A Canadian peace initiative to end the brutal conflict between Cameroon’s government and several Anglophone separatist groups suffered setbacks as Yaoundé denied giving any country a mandate to facilitate negotiations.
     
  • Already high tensions between Rwanda and DR Congo ratcheted up after the Rwandan military shot at a Congolese fighter jet they say violated Rwandan airspace.
     
  • In Pakistan, a suicide bombing claimed by the Pakistani Taliban killed scores in Peshawar city, as the group continued high-frequency attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
     
  • Days after Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva’s inauguration as Brazil’s president, supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed government buildings in the country’s capital, demanding a military coup to reinstate him to power.
     
  • Deadly violence escalated in Israel-Palestine as Israeli forces killed dozens of Palestinians in the West Bank and a Palestinian shooter killed seven Israelis in Jerusalem.

We also assess an improved situation in Ethiopia, where the Tigray People’s Liberation Front began surrendering heavy weapons to federal forces, fulfilling a key clause of the November peace deal. Within days, Eritrea withdrew its troops from most major cities in Tigray. 

Aside from the dozens of conflict situations we usually assess, we tracked notable developments in January in Benin, Bolivia, Brazil, Eswatini, Peru, Rwanda and Togo

CrisisWatch Digests

Our CrisisWatch Digests offer a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments.

For our most recent CrisisWatch Digests, please follow these links for EthiopiaLebanon and Somalia.

Brazil

Days after Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva’s inauguration as president, Pro-Bolsonaro protesters stormed govt buildings, demanding military coup.

Rioters stormed govt buildings in attempt to reinstate Bolsonaro as president. Days after President Lula 1 Jan took office, supporters of former President Bolsonaro 8 Jan invaded presidential palace, Congress, and Supreme Court in capital Brasília, demanding military coup to reinstate Bolsonaro as president; they stole weaponry from vaults and caused millions of dollars in damage, including by smashing windows and furniture and destroying works of art. Lula same day declared state of emergency in Federal District, where Brasilia is located, until 31 Jan. Bolsonaro 9 Jan denied any involvement, claiming to have always acted lawfully.

Authorities arrested scores for attempted coup, evidence of army role in riots emerged. Police arrested over 1,500 protesters, 39 of whom were indicted by federal prosecutors on 16 Jan for crimes including attempted coup d’état. Supreme Court head Alexandre de Moraes 8 Jan suspended pro-Bolsonaro governor of Federal District Ibaneis Rocha for 90 days due to lack of action to contain protesters; Rocha 13 Jan responded, claiming army prevented police from removing pro-Bolsonaro protesters’ encampment in Brasília before riots. Police 10 Jan arrested former Commander of Federal District’s military police Colonel Fábio Augusto Vieira due to security lapses during riots; Vieira 12 Jan said army had twice blocked police from clearing encampment. Supreme Court 13 Jan approved request to investigate Bolsonaro’s role in protests. Authorities 14 Jan arrested Anderson Torres, Brasília’s security secretary and former minister of justice under Bolsonaro, on charges of “omission”; upon searching his home, they found draft decree that would allow electoral authorities to interfere with past presidential election results and annul Lula’s win. Lula 21 Jan fired army General Julio Cesar de Arruda for not following govt orders to dismantle pro-Bolsonaro tent. Police 27 Jan raided home of Leonardo Rodrigues de Jesus, Bolsonaro’s nephew, currently under investigation for role in riots.

Bolivia