CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

The latest edition of Crisis Group’s monthly conflict tracker highlights deteriorations in October in thirteen countries and conflict areas, as well as improved situations in Bolivia, Chile and Libya.

In Nigeria, protests against police brutality turned violent in major cities as police and pro-police thugs clashed with protesters, killing dozens. Election-related violence flared in Tanzania, where opposition supporters claimed they faced attacks and intimidation.

In Afghanistan, the Taliban launched a large-scale assault on Lashkar Gah, the provincial capital of Helmand province, in the group’s first major attack on an urban centre in 2020 – the Taliban had so far avoided such attacks, in line with their February agreement with the U.S. 

Looking ahead to November, CrisisWatch warns of seven conflict risks.

In West Africa, election-related violence in Côte d’Ivoire and Guinea is likely to escalate and could take an increasingly ethnic turn.

A feud between Ethiopia’s federal government and Tigray region reached a breaking point and could turn violent as Addis Ababa is set to redirect federal funding away from Tigray’s executive on 4 November.

In Yemen’s north, the Huthis’ military campaign could escalate in Marib, the government’s last stronghold, and further advances toward Hodeida port could put in jeopardy the 2018 ceasefire agreement. 

War between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh – which killed hundreds on both sides and displaced tens of thousands in October – could further intensify and spread.

Bolivia

After tense electoral campaign, general elections – which returned Movement toward Socialism (MAS) to power – held largely peacefully 18 Oct. MAS, party of former President Evo Morales, retained majority in both houses of Congress, while Luis Arce, its presidential candidate, secured victory with 55% of vote. Peaceful voting preceded by hostile pre-elections climate. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights office in Bolivia 2 Oct recorded at least 30 acts of violence against MAS sympathisers, other opposition parties as well as journalists between 6 Sept and 2 Oct. In country’s largest city Santa Cruz, around 5,000 people 20 Oct protested against MAS victory, accused party of fraud. Right-wing Creemos party supporters same day set up vigils near electoral tribunal departmental centres in Santa Cruz, Cochabamba and Chuquisaca departments. Morales 29 Oct said he will return to Bolivia 11 Nov, after judge 26 Oct annulled arrest warrant against him for alleged sedition and terrorism. Outgoing parliament 29 Oct approved motion recommending that outgoing interim President Jeanine Áñez and 11 of her ministers face justice for responsibility in late 2019 violence, which left around 30 dead.

Chile

Chileans approved rewriting of dictatorship-era constitution seen as symbol of neo-liberal economic model, amid one-year anniversary of protests over inequalities. Referendum on new constitution, one key demand of protesters in late 2019, held 25 Oct; 79% in favour of instituting specially elected body of citizens to draft new constitution to be submitted to referendum by mid-2022, paving way for end to constitution in place since General Augusto Pinochet’s military rule (1973-1990). In celebration, tens of thousands gathered overnight 25-26 Oct in capital Santiago’s central square. Earlier in month, series of demonstrations took place to commemorate one-year anniversary of Oct 2019 protests over austerity and inequalities, which left some 20 people dead. During anti-govt protest in Santiago, policeman 2 Oct reportedly pushed teenage boy from bridge into Mapocho river; as demonstrators circulated video of incident, Office of the Ombudsman for Children same day denounced “attempted homicide” by police forces; police next day denied allegations, while govt ordered investigation. Thousands 19 Oct protested in cities across country, notably against police brutality; several riots and looting incidents reported; notably, masked individuals set fire to police headquarters and two churches in Santiago.

Colombia