CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Mali

Tensions continued to mount between transitional govt and coalition of northern armed groups signatory to 2015 Algiers peace accord, and Islamic State gained further ground in Ménaka region.

Relations between govt and Algiers Accord signatory groups deteriorated further. Army aircraft 5 April flew over Kidal city (Kidal region in north), headquarters of coalition of former rebel groups Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA); CMA responded with warning shots, and same day denounced ceasefire “violation” and “grave provocation”. In effort to reboot peace process, accord’s international mediation mechanism (led by Algeria) 9 April proposed meetings with interim govt 17 April, and with govt and signatory groups 24 April, which Bamako declined. Further stoking tensions, armed forces reported arresting on 23 April 12 “terrorists” in rare operation in Ménaka region (also north); CMA however claimed detainees were coalition members. Algerian FM Ahmed Attaf 27 April visited Bamako, held talks with interim president, Col. Goïta; in joint statement, leaders committed to reviving 2015 deal.

Islamic State pursued advance in Ménaka, violence continued in centre. Following weeks-long fighting with al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), Islamic State Sahel Province 11 April took control of Tidermène town (Ménaka), in effect encircling regional capital Ménaka and driving displacement. In Mopti region (centre), govt forces and allied Russia’s paramilitary Wagner Group elements 1 April reportedly killed nine civilians in Kourkanda-Peulh village; military claimed eight of those killed were jihadists. Suspected JNIM combatants 22 April launched suicide attacks in Sévaré town (also Mopti), leaving 10 civilians dead and over 60 wounded; military reportedly killed 28 assailants.

Tensions with UN resurfaced ahead of UN mission in Mali’s mandate renewal. UN Security Council members at 12 April meeting expressed concern about frozen peace process with northern armed groups and possible presidential election delay after Malian authorities in March indefinitely postponed constitutional referendum; ahead of vote on UN mission (MINUSMA)’s mandate renewal in June, UNSG Special Representative for Mali El-Ghassim Wane also urged Bamako to lift restrictions on MINUSMA operations. Meanwhile, as disinformation campaign sought to attribute 22 April attack to MINUSMA, angry mob 23 April assaulted and wounded two MINUSMA staff in Sévaré.

Africa

Mali

Authorities postponed constitutional referendum, missing first deadline on timetable to return to constitutional rule; jihadist violence and army operations took heavy toll on civilians.

Bamako postponed constitutional referendum, cracked down on critics. Transitional govt 10 March announced constitutional referendum originally due 19 March would be “slightly” delayed, notably to install subdivisions of election management body in all regions, as recommended during 2021 national dialogue; however reaffirmed commitment to holding presidential election in Feb 2024 as agreed with regional body ECOWAS. Meanwhile, security forces 13 March arrested radio and television host and civil society activist Ras Bath two days after he described death in custody of former PM Soumeylou Boubèye Maïga in 2022 as “assassination”; 15 March detained influencer “Rose Vie Chère” on charges including “inciting rebellion” days after she denounced “failure” of interim authorities.

Govt accused northern armed groups of degrading Algiers peace agreement. In letter to Algeria dated 24 Feb and leaked 1 March, Malian authorities denounced “flagrant violations” of 2015 Algiers peace agreement by signatory armed groups, notably coalition of former rebel groups Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA), accusing them of collaborating with jihadist groups. CMA did not officially respond to allegations.

Jihadist violence persisted in north. In Ménaka region, Islamic State Sahel Province (IS-Sahel) and al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) 1 March clashed near Agare Mbaou locality; each group claimed killing dozens of rivals. In Gao region, presumed JNIM elements 9 March killed eight civilians near Wabaria village; IS-Sahel 14 March launched attacks in Anchawadi commune, leaving eight civilians and four pro-govt militiamen dead. Over 400 vehicles belonging to signatory armed groups 7 March reportedly gathered near Anefis town, Kidal region, likely in preparation for operations against IS-Sahel.

Abuses against civilians continued amid military operations in centre. In Mopti region, Malian and Russian paramilitary Wagner Group forces 6 March reportedly killed five civilians and arrested at least a dozen during operation in Sossobe-Togoro village; Malian air force 7 March carried out airstrikes allegedly targeting ethnic Fulani hamlets between Kilimpo and Koko villages, reportedly leaving a dozen civilians dead.

Africa

Mali

Bamako expelled UN mission’s human rights chief, tensions between interim authorities and northern armed groups reached new heights, and new reports of human rights abuses emerged amid military operations in centre.

Relations with UN mission MINUSMA deteriorated further. After civil society representative Aminata Cheick Dicko 27 Jan denounced abuses by Malian and Russian forces before UN Security Council, govt 5 Feb requested MINUSMA’s human rights chief leave country within 48 hours, citing his “partiality” in choosing Dicko for Security Council testimony.

Govt strengthened relations with Russia and military-led neighbours. Russian FM Sergei Lavrov 7 Feb met with Interim President Col. Goïta in first ever visit to capital Bamako, saluted ongoing military cooperation. Burkinabé PM Kyélem de Tambèla 1 Feb travelled to Bamako to discuss bilateral security cooperation, while PM Choguel Maïga 23-26 Feb travelled to Burkinabé capital Ouagadougou, signed counter-terrorism cooperation agreement with Burkinabé counterpart. FM Diop 9 Feb met with Burkinabé and Guinean counterparts in Ouagadougou, discussed joining forces against West African regional bloc ECOWAS sanctions (see Burkina Faso and Guinea).

Northern armed groups and Bamako exchanged threats of military action. Permanent Strategic Framework bringing together signatory groups of 2015 Algiers Accord 1 Feb met with accord’s international mediation mechanism (led by Algeria), warned armed groups would “take action” if govt continues to block accord’s implementation. Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA), coalition of three signatory rebel groups, 8 Feb announced merger into single entity. Member of transitional legislature 10 Feb claimed war with signatory armed groups was “inevitable”; CMA immediately denounced “belligerent” comments. Meanwhile, al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslim (JNIM) leader Iyad ag Ghaly late Jan-early Feb toured northern Mali, reportedly met with local notables including leaders of signatory armed groups to discuss cooperation against Islamic State-Sahel Province.

Army faced allegations of abuses amid ongoing operations in centre. Military 7 Feb announced operation against JNIM in Korientzé village (Mopti region) had killed 37 fighters. Locals alleged Malian and Russian Wagner forces 13 Feb killed five civilians in Soumouni village (Ségou region), whose inhabitants are believed to have reached agreement with JNIM.

Africa

Mali

Jihadist militants launched spate of attacks in south, transitional govt encountered resistance to constitutional reform plans, and months-long tensions with Côte d’Ivoire abated.

Jihadist attacks continued including in southern region. Al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) 2 Jan launched simultaneous attacks in southern Koulikoro region, killing two people in Kassela village (20km from Bamako) and another five in Markacoungo town (80km from Bamako). Also in Koulikoro, JNIM 15 Jan reportedly ambushed armed forces near Kolokani village, killing five soldiers while also losing 15 combatants. In centre, JNIM 10 Jan launched twin attacks on govt forces between Dia and Diafarabé towns (Mopti region), and Koumara and Macina towns (Koulikoro and Ségou regions, respectively); 14 soldiers and 31 jihadists reportedly killed. Meanwhile, in Ménaka region further north, Islamic State Sahel Province (IS-Sahel) militants targeted civilians, notably killing eight people in Inagam and Assakereye villages 5 Jan.

Transitional authorities’ constitutional reform plan faced opposition. Several opposition groups, including supporters of influential Imam Mahmoud Dicko 9 Jan, announced boycott of meeting convened by govt to discuss draft constitution ahead of constitutional referendum scheduled for March. Meeting 12 Jan proceeded with only 50 of 281 invited participants present. Authorities 14 Jan used tear gas to disperse demonstration to welcome Dicko back from Saudi Arabia to capital Bamako.

Tensions with Côte d’Ivoire eased as Mali freed Ivorian soldiers detained since July. Interim President Col. Assimi Goïta 6 Jan pardoned 49 Ivorian soldiers detained in July 2022 on allegations of undermining state security; 46 soldiers next day returned to Côte d’Ivoire (three had been released in Sept 2022). In phone call, Ivorian President Ouattara 9 Jan invited Goïta to visit Côte d’Ivoire (see Côte d’Ivoire).

In other important developments. After signatory armed groups late Dec suspended participation in 2015 Algiers Accord, Malian FM Abdoulaye Diop 15-16 Jan travelled to Algeria, met counterpart Ramtane Lamamra and President Tebboune to discuss issues related to peace agreement. Bamako later in month reportedly declined Algerian proposal to host meeting between stakeholders of 2015 agreement, which would have conformed with signatory armed groups’ request for meeting “on neutral ground”.

Africa

Mali

Northern armed groups suspended participation in peace process to protest junta’s lack of political will to implement 2015 Algiers agreement; security situation remained volatile in north and centre.

Northern armed groups pulled out of Algiers peace process. Coalition of northern armed groups including Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) 22 Dec suspended participation in monitoring and implementation mechanisms of 2015 Algiers peace agreement with govt, citing “lack of political will on the part of the transitional authorities to implement” accord. Earlier in month, CMA had deplored peace deal’s “decay” and requested emergency meeting with Algerian-led International Mediation outside Mali to examine accord’s “viability”.

Rival jihadist groups engaged in intense fighting in north. In Gao region, clashes 3-10 Dec erupted between al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (IS-Sahel) militants near Tagarangabot, Tadjalalt and Haroum localities, leaving dozens dead. Also in Gao, JNIM 4 Dec reportedly killed around 16 ethnic Fulani or Dawsahak people near In Aoutel locality. In Timbuktu city (Timbuktu region), unidentified gunman 16 Dec fired at UN peacekeepers, leaving two dead.

Govt faced accusations of serious abuses against civilians in centre. Amid ongoing operations against JNIM in country’s centre, govt forces, along with Dan Na Ambassagou militia and Russian allies, reportedly carried out human rights abuses against civilians, including arbitrary killings. Notably, govt forces and Russian paramilitary Wagner Group 6 Dec conducted air and ground operation in Kita town (Mopti region); authorities claimed to have killed one jihadist and arrested eight others, while locals said operation left five civilians dead, three wounded, and nine others detained.

In other important developments. Choguel Maïga 4 Dec reinstated as PM after three-month absence following stroke. Transitional govt continued to tighten control of NGOs, issuing new reporting obligations 15 Dec after banning NGOs funded or supported by France in Nov. After Interim President Col. Goïta 22 Dec reportedly agreed with Ivorian delegation to release 46 Ivorian soldiers detained since July, court in Bamako 30 Dec sentenced detained soldiers to 20 years in prison on charges of undermining state security (see Côte d’Ivoire).

Africa

Mali

Violent conflict continued in north and centre, and UN peacekeeping mission (MINUSMA) saw several troop contributors withdraw.

Rampant insecurity in north fuelled popular discontent. Main trade unions 8 Nov declared 48-hour general strike in Gao region to protest govt’s lack of response to growing insecurity; Algiers peace accord signatory group leader around same day called on young Tuaregs to join fight against Islamic State Sahel Province (IS-Sahel) in Gao. Meanwhile, deadly attacks continued across region. Notably, local officials 23 Nov reported jihadist attack on Kadji camp for internally displaced persons 21 Nov left 11 civilians dead. Encounters between IS-Sahel and rival al-Qaeda affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) reported around 12-13 Nov in Gao and Timbuktu regions; death toll unknown.

Violence involving jihadist militants and security forces continued in centre. Govt forces 1 Nov reportedly killed five JNIM militants near Pogo locality (Ségou region). JNIM militants 10 Nov killed three pro-govt militia fighters in Kargue village (Bandiagara region). MINUSMA convoy on its way to Timbuktu city 21 Nov hit mine near Douentza town in Mopti region, leaving three peacekeepers injured. Conflict took high civilian toll. Govt forces 12 Nov reportedly killed up to four civilians during operation in Birga-Peulh village, and 14 Nov allegedly killed four Fulani civilians near Derou village (both Mopti).

Key troop contributors announced withdrawal from MINUSMA. UK, Côte d’Ivoire and Germany 14-22 Nov announced withdrawal of their military contingents, leaving mission’s future uncertain. Meanwhile, MINUSMA 9 Nov reported govt forces 1 July-30 Sept committed 162 human rights abuses, 33% increase from 1 April - 30 June period; also noted limited ability to investigate abuses as MINUSMA personnel does not enjoy free movement. NGO International Federation for Human Rights 24 Nov warned that 2022 “will likely be the deadliest in Mali” since 2012, denounced impunity of those responsible for human right abuses.

In other important developments. After French govt 17 Nov suspended development assistance to Mali, citing presence of Russian paramilitary Wagner Group, Bamako 21 Nov banned French and French-funded NGOs from operating in country; number of NGOs subsequently suspended activity, including Doctors of the World-Belgium 22 Nov.

Africa

Mali

Jihadists pressed ahead with offensive in north, while govt forces and allies sustained counter-insurgency operations in centre; transitional authorities pushed ahead with plan to change constitution.

Islamic State Sahel Province clashed with rival as it consolidates control in north. In Ménaka region, local populations in Oct continued to flee from areas around regional capital Ménaka amid rumours that IS Sahel militants may seek to assault city. Also in Ménaka, IS Sahel and al-Qaeda Affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) late Oct reportedly engaged in intense fighting in Adéraboukane, Inchnane and Tamalate localities; local sources said JNIM had gained upper hand. IS Sahel continued to make progress in Ansongo district of Gao region, where ambush on military convoy near Fafa locality 1 Oct wounded six. In Kidal region, UN mission MINUSMA peacekeepers 17 Oct hit explosive device near Tessalit village, leaving four dead.

Fighting continued apace in centre as military tries to reconquer lost territories. Military 3-5 Oct killed 31 presumed JNIM militants and destroyed two of their bases in Niono district (Ségou region); 4-6 Oct arrested 50 presumed jihadists in Sofara town and Mopti city (both Mopti region). Also in Mopti, public bus 13 Oct hit explosive device between Bandiagara and Goundaga towns, killing 10; local officials 31 Oct claimed govt forces and private security company Wagner operatives previous day killed at least 13 civilians in Guelledjé locality, Ténenkou district.

Transitional authorities poised to change constitution and militarise police. Constitutional drafting commission 11 Oct submitted preliminary draft of new constitution to interim President Goïta, who wants to put new constitution to referendum in March 2023. Coalition gathering dozens of opposition parties in following days insisted drafting process should be handled by democratically elected civilian govt. Meanwhile, transitional legislative body late Oct passed law allowing police and civil protection services to play more active role in fight against jihadist groups while also depriving officers of their right to strike.

Govt continued to confront traditional security partners. At UN Security Council, FM Abdoulaye Diop 18 Oct again accused France of supporting jihadists and undermining Mali’s sovereignty; Paris immediately denounced “slander”. Negotiations for release of 46 Ivorian soldiers dragged on (see Côte d’Ivoire).

Africa

Mali

Interim govt sought allies in region as dispute with Côte d’Ivoire worsened and insecurity prevailed across large swathes of territory.

Deadly jihadist violence remained rampant in centre and north. In centre, al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) 2 Sept killed between 13 and 15 civilians in Tiouga village (Ségou region). Media outlets including Radio France Internationale early Sept reported accusations of sexual violence, including rape on female villagers, after army, Russian paramilitary Wagner Group and Dozo hunters 4 Sept entered Nia-Ouro village (Mopti region); UN mission opened investigation into allegations. In north, Islamic State Sahel Province (IS Sahel) 6 Sept seized Talataye town (Gao region) after fighting with Algiers peace deal signatory armed group Movement for the Salvation of Azawad (MSA) and JNIM; clashes reportedly left 17 JNIM, three MSA fighters and 42 civilians dead and displaced 13,000 inhabitants; IS Sahel reportedly withdrew by 9 Sept. On Independence Day, hundreds 22 Sept marched in capital Bamako chanting anti-UN slogans and carrying Russian flags.

Spat with Côte d’Ivoire worsened while tensions with France simmered. Govt 3 Sept released three of 49 Ivorian soldiers arrested 10 July. President Goïta 9 Sept conditioned release of remaining 46 to Ivorian authorities agreeing to extradite Malian officials associated with deposed President Keita. Côte d’Ivoire 14 Sept denounced “unacceptable blackmail”; West African regional bloc ECOWAS 29 Sept sent high-level delegation to Bamako to negotiate soldiers’ release; no breakthrough reported. Meanwhile, authorities 15 Sept briefly detained two French soldiers on accusations of spying; Interim PM Col. Abdoulaye Maïga 24 Sept at UN General Assembly accused France of violating Malian airspace to provide “information, weapons and ammunition to terrorist groups”.

Military leaders sought support among neighbours. Interim President Col. Goïta 3 Sept met with Burkinabè counterpart Lt. Col. Damiba and 7 Sept with Guinea’s FM Morissanda Kouyaté in Bamako; Defence Minister Col. Sadio Camara 4-6 Sept visited Mauritania; all meetings reportedly focused on security cooperation. Interim PM Maïga 28 Sept said Mali will not respect sanctions ECOWAS imposed on Guinea’s ruling junta on 22 Sept.

Africa

Mali

Jihadists launched deadliest attack on military since 2019 and continued southward expansion; govt met with northern armed groups to discuss stalled implementation of 2015 peace accord; and relations with UN mission and France remained tense. Jihadist violence continued in north and centre. In north, Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) militants 7 Aug attacked Tessit town (Gao region), killing 42 soldiers in deadliest attack on military since 2019; 37 militants also killed. In Ménaka region, ISGS 7-8 Aug killed 20 Tuareg civilians near Tahabanat village, 12 Aug killed another 20 people in Assaylal village. In centre, suspected al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) militants 5 Aug killed 12 civilians in Bankass circle (Bandiagara region). In Sikasso region (south), suspected JNIM fighters 7 Aug killed five police officers and kidnapped at least one other in complex ambush involving explosive device near Karangana town. Amid stalled implementation of 2015 Algiers Peace Accord, govt 1-5 Aug met signatory groups’ leaders, announced agreement on number of ex-combatants to be integrated into regular forces; signatory alliance of rebel groups Coordination of Azawad Movements however citicised agreement’s lack of clarity regarding role of armed group leaders in future integrated units. Interim President Col. Goïta around 22 Aug appointed another colonel, Abdoulaye Maiga, to act as PM in absence of civilian PM Choguel Maïga. Tensions continued to run high with UN mission (MINUSMA) and France. Germany (largest Western troop provider to MINUSMA) 12 Aug announced suspension of its military mission in country after Bamako in July suspended MINUSMA troop rotations. Govt next day announced resumption of MINUSMA troop rotations under new procedures, prompting Germany to resume military flights to Mali on 18 Aug. Attorney general 14 Aug charged 49 Ivorian soldiers arrested in July – upon arrival to work for MINUSMA contractor – with “attempting to undermine state security” (see Côte d’Ivoire). In 15 Aug letter to UN Security Council, FM Abdoulaye Diop called for emergency UN Security Council meeting to stop French “acts of aggression”, including alleged espionage, and accused France of supporting jihadists; last soldiers belonging to French Operation Barkhane same day left country.

Africa

Mali

Jihadists extended operations further south from their stronghold in country’s centre, launching bold attacks near capital Bamako; West Africa’s regional bloc lifted economic and financial sanctions; and diplomatic spat erupted with Côte d’Ivoire. Jihadists struck targets just north of Bamako. Suspected al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) 14 July attacked Zantiguila security post (Koulikoro region), only 50km from Bamako, killing at least six. JNIM-affiliated Katiba Macina 22 July launched sophisticated attack on Kati military base on outskirts of Bamako, leaving one soldier dead; govt forces repelled raid, killing at least seven assailants. Elsewhere, coordinated jihadist attacks on military targets near towns of Sévaré (Mopti region), Sokolo (Ségou region) and Kalumba (Koulikouro region) 27 July killed at least 15 troops and three civilians; military said 48 militants killed. Meanwhile, 2015 peace agreement signatory group Coordination of Azawad Movements 17 July decried “abandonment” of accord by transitional authorities, promoted “consolidation of unity” between signatory armed groups. After Bamako late June released electoral timetable scheduling presidential election for Feb 2024, West Africa’s regional bloc ECOWAS 3 July lifted economic and financial sanctions on Mali, only keeping individual and diplomatic sanctions in place; ECOWAS demanded that no member of transitional govt run as presidential candidate in 2024 election, amid persistent concern among Malian actors and outside observers over transitional President Col Goïta’s intentions. Supreme Court prosecutor 28 July issued international arrest warrant for ex-PM Boubou Cissé and several other ministers of deposed President Keïta, in likely attempt to prevent them from running in presidential election. Meanwhile, diplomatic incident soured Bamako’s relations with Côte d’Ivoire and confirmed junta’s reluctance to cooperate with UN mission MINUSMA going forward. Bamako 10 July arrested 49 Ivorian soldiers at Bamako airport, described them as “mercenaries” attempting to enter country without proper authorisation in order to foment unrest. Côte d’Ivoire’s govt 12 July denied claim, said soldiers were part of MINUSMA, and requested their “immediate” release. Bamako 20 July ordered MINUSMA Spokesperson Olivier Salgado to leave country within 72 hours over tweets about incident (see Côte d’Ivoire).