CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month September 2005

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month August 2005

Conflict in Focus

Eleven conflict situations around the world deteriorated in August 2005, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today. Iraq's divisions deepened as Kurdish and Shiite representatives submitted a draft constitution to parliament over the objections of Sunni Arab leaders. Coordinated detonation of over 400 small bombs caused widespread turmoil in Bangladesh. Haiti saw further violence and lawlessness. Iran's resumption of uranium conversion activities brought new tensions to its nuclear stand-off with the U.S. and the European Union. In Ecuador, the government imposed a state of emergency after mass protests over the distribution of oil revenues brought production to a halt. And the ex-rebel Forces Nouvelles withdrew from Cote d'Ivoire's peace process, saying they would not take part in 30 October elections. The situations in the Maldives, North Caucasus (Russia), Serbia & Montenegro, Sierra Leone and Sri Lanka also deteriorated last month.

Five conflict situations showed improvement in August 2005. Indonesia welcomed a historic peace agreement between the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) and the government. Israel's unilateral pull-out from Gaza was marked by less than expected resistance from settlers, and restraint from Palestinian militant groups. In Chad, the government and the Northern Movement for Democracy and Justice rebels agreed to end seven-year hostilities. The situations also improved in Liberia and Western Sahara.

For September 2005, CrisisWatch identifies Afghanistan and Iraq as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month. No new Conflict Resolution Opportunities were identified for September.

CrisisWatch Digests

Burundi

Important milestone in peace process as parliament elected as president Pierre Nkurunziza, head of former Hutu rebel group CNDD-FDD; inaugurated 26 August, formed government 31 August with 60/40 Hutu-Tutsi ratio in accordance with constitution. Local elections to be held 19 and 23 September. National Liberation Forces (FNL) intensified attacks, putting pressure on new government: Bujumbara shelled with mortars 18 August, while military positions in west and north attacked, killing 3 soldiers and 10 rebels. Former FDD rebels handed in weapons to UN 12 August, symbolically renouncing war. Rwanda, Burundi and UNHCR signed repatriation agreement for Burundian refugees.

Central African Republic

4,000 CAR refugees fled to Chad after unidentified armed groups attacked villages in northern Paoua region 7 and 9 August.

Chad

Northern Movement for Democracy and Justice in Chad (MDJT) and government agreed end to 7-year hostilities. Accord open to other rebel groups for 3 months; rebels to be integrated into national army. Private media went on strike, accusing President Déby of “creeping dictatorship”.

Democratic Republic of Congo