CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month October 2005

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month September 2005

Conflict in Focus

Six conflict situations around the world deteriorated in September 2005, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today. Iraq is heading toward de facto partition and full-scale civil war. Daily violence intensified in southern Thailand. Mozambique saw deadly clashes between supporters of the ruling party and a former rebel movement. The International Atomic Energy Agency voted to report Iran to the UN Security Council for violating its obligations under the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. Tensions worsened in Kyrgyzstan as political groups and criminal elements competed for power. The situation also deteriorated in Cote d'Ivoire where the peace process is on the brink of collapse.

Four conflict situations showed improvement in September 2005. Six-party talks on North Korea ended with a surprise breakthrough as Pyongyang promised to give up nuclear weapons and programs in exchange for energy assistance and security guarantees. In the Philippines, the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front agreed on the major issue of "ancestral domain" in informal talks. There was a positive development in Liberia as the government approved a long-awaited Governance and Economic Management Assistance Programme, following pressure from donor countries. And a general amnesty was announced for political crimes in Mauritania. Positive developments in the Aceh peace process in Indonesia were offset by bombs in Bali being reported 1 October as CrisisWatch went to press.

For October 2005, CrisisWatch identifies Iraq, Nepal and Somalia as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month. Nepal is also a Conflict Resolution Opportunity.

CrisisWatch Digests

Burundi

Electoral process ended with successful elections for local heads of villages 23 September. Spokesman for last remaining rebel group, National Liberation Forces (FLN), stated armed conflict now over; denied initiating attacks against government that killed 1. FLN refused to recognise new government’s legitimacy; splinter group later called on FLN leader to accept President Nkurunziza’s offer of negotiations. UN Security Council pledged support for “Forum of Partners” to help consolidate peace and promote development in Burundi. South Africa to withdraw over 300 troops protecting political leaders following August elections.

Central African Republic

Unidentified armed group attacked northern CAR village 27 September; up to 3,000 reportedly fleeing to Chad; UNHCR refugee camp in Chad reaching capacity; new camp to be constructed.

Chad

Sudanese Janjaweed militia attacked villages in eastern Chad, killing 36; 8 attackers, 2 Chadian soldiers killed in ensuing clash. Continuing insecurity in northern CAR prompted repatriation of 1,500 Chadian refugees.

Democratic Republic of Congo