Tracking Conflict Worldwide
Outlook for This Month January 2018
Conflict Risk Alerts
Trends for Last Month December 2017
Huthi rebels in Yemen killed their erstwhile ally, former President Saleh, and cracked down on his party, while both the Huthis and the Saudi-led coalition looked set to increase hostilities in January. In Syria, the regime and its allies ramped up their campaign to take territory from jihadist and other rebel groups in the north west, and the de facto leader in Libya’s east disavowed the 2015 political deal, which could lead to more fighting in coming weeks. In Egypt, the military intensified operations in North Sinai against jihadists, who in turn launched more attacks. President Trump’s declaration that the U.S. recognises Jerusalem as Israel’s capital triggered deadly clashes between Palestinian protestors and Israeli security forces, and in Iran over a dozen were reported killed as tens of thousands protested against the regime. In Africa, Cameroon and Ethiopia experienced heightened instability, new fighting in South Sudan could escalate in January, and a ban on unrestricted grazing in Nigeria’s Taraba state could lead to more violence between herders and farmers. In Central America, the political crisis in Honduras saw deadly clashes between opposition supporters and police.
In Yemen, the collapse of the alliance between the Huthis and former President Saleh’s party initiated a dangerous new phase in the conflict. After the Huthis killed Saleh on 4 December and cracked down on his family and party members, the Saudi-led coalition intensified airstrikes, reducing immediate prospects for peace from slim to none. On 19 December, the Huthis fired another missile at Riyadh, which Saudi forces intercepted over the city. The Saudi-led coalition, in defiance of calls by the international community, maintained its partial blockade of Huthi-controlled territories with devastating humanitarian consequences. As we have explained, the UN Security Council should pass a resolution calling on all sides to agree to a ceasefire and political negotiations. It is the only way to avoid famine, the spread of cholera and further economic devastation. In Syria’s north west, regime forces and their allies, backed by Russian airstrikes, escalated efforts to take areas in southern Aleppo and nort