CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month October 2021

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month September 2021

Deteriorated Situations

Improved Situations

Conflict in Focus

Our monthly conflict tracker warns of four conflict risks in October.

  • A tense power struggle between Somalia’s President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmajo” and Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble could further strain the fragile electoral progress, and trigger violence in the capital Mogadishu.
     
  • The war in Yemen could again take a turn for the worse as the Huthis will likely intensify their offensive in the country’s north, and especially in the governorates of Marib, Shabwa and Abyan.
     
  • Tensions will run high in Cameroon as Anglophone separatists and government forces could clash violently around Ambazonia Independence Day on 1 October.
     
  • In Sudan, an attempted coup heightened tensions between the civilian and military components of the transitional authorities, putting at stake the government’s unity.
     

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights deteriorations in six countries in September. 

  • Political tensions rose in Libya after the parliament unilaterally issued a presidential election law and withdrew confidence from the government, dimming prospects of elections later this year.
     
  • In Guinea, a military coup ousted President Alpha Condé, who had been in power for over a decade, ushering in a period of great uncertainty.
     
  • A series of grenade attacks in Burundi, notably in the capital Gitega and in Bujumbura city, killed several people and injured over a hundred.
     

We also noted an improvement in Lebanon, where the formation of a new government ended a thirteen-month period with caretaker authorities.

Aside from the 70+ conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked notable developments in: Brazil, Eswatini, Indonesia and Montenegro.

Our CrisisWatch Digests for Ethiopia, Lebanon and Somalia offer a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments:

  • View the September 2021 CrisisWatch Digest on Ethiopia here.
  • View the September 2021 CrisisWatch Digest on Lebanon here.
  • View the September 2021 CrisisWatch Digest on Somalia here.

Algeria

Authorities continued to restrict civil society and closed airspace to Moroccan planes in ongoing dispute with Rabat. Coalition of political par-ties and civil society organisations Democratic Alternative Forces Pact, born during 2019 Hirak protest movement, 1 Sept denounced govt’s “rising repression and authoritarian drift” and “war against public liberties”. Police next day blocked march in support of political prisoners, arrested several demonstrators in Kherrata town, Kabylia region (north). In ongoing crackdown on outlawed Movement for the Self-Determination of Kabylie (MAK), authorities 6 Sept reportedly arrested 27 suspected MAK members in Kherrata and Beni Ourtilane towns, both Kabylia. Authorities also detained several journalists over their alleged links to MAK, including Hassan Bouras 6 Sept and Mohamed Mouloudj 12 Sept; later charged them with terrorism-related offences. Amid heightened tensions with Morocco since worsening of Western Sahara conflict in late 2020, Supreme Security Council 22 Sept closed country’s airspace to all Moroccan civil and military aircraft citing “provocations and hostile practices” by Rabat; senior diplomat Amar Belani 24 Sept said “adoption of additional measures cannot be ruled out”. Former President Bouteflika, who resigned in 2019 amid outcry over his plan to seek fifth term, 17 Sept died aged 84.

Egypt

Govt scored major victory against jihadist group amid persistent vio-lence in Sinai, and U.S. decided to withhold part of military aid over human rights concerns. After opponent in exile Mohamed Ali late-Aug urged Egyptians to take to streets against President Sisi on second anniversary of 20 Sept 2019 anti-regime protests, authorities reportedly placed country on high alert; streets 20 Sept remained quiet amid enhanced security presence notably in capital Cairo. In Sinai Peninsula, suspected Islamic State-affiliated Sinai Province (SP) 2-3 Sept abducted eight civilians; army four days later released them. Two IEDs reportedly activated early Sept against army vehicles west of Rafah town and south of Sheikh Zuweid town. In highest-profile defection since insurgency began in 2011, top SP official Mohamed Saad Kamel, also known as Abu Hamza al-Qadi, 10 Sept surrendered to govt-linked tribal union. NGO Human Rights Watch 7 Sept accused security forces of having killed dozens of suspected “terrorists” in extrajudicial executions in recent years, including in North Sinai; called on international partners to halt weapons transfers to Egypt and to impose sanctions against security agencies and officials responsible for abuses. In unprecedented step, U.S. State Dept 14 Sept said U.S. administration will withhold $130mn out of its annual $300mn in conditioned military aid to Egypt until Cairo takes specific steps to improve human rights record; group of 19 human rights groups, which had called on U.S. to block entire $300mn, same day decried decision as “terrible blow” to Washington’s commitment to “human rights first” foreign policy. Delegations of Egyptian and Turkish diplomats 7-8 Sept held second round of discussions in Turkey’s capital Ankara with view to normalising relations; both sides pledged further talks to address divergences.

Libya

Prospects of holding elections by year’s end fading as parliament unilaterally issued presidential election law and voted no-confidence motion against unity govt, escalating political tensions. Tobruk-based House of R