Tracking Conflict Worldwide
Global Overview
Our monthly conflict tracker warns of four conflict risks in November.
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Tigray forces could advance on the Djibouti corridor or launch an assault on Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa, with further devastating consequences for the country's stability and communal relations.
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In Sudan, deadly crackdowns on tens of thousands of protesters opposing the military coup could foment splits in the military and lead to a violent escalation.
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A battle for Yemen’s Marib city looms after the Huthis made breakthroughs in the last contiguous bloc of territory held by government-aligned forces.
- Amid stifling of dissent, President Ortega’s controversial bid for a fourth term in Nicaragua’s general election on 7 November could fuel further political instability and isolation.
CrisisWatch also highlights deteriorations in eleven countries in October.
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The investigation into Lebanon’s August 2020 port explosion sparked deadly sectarian clashes in the capital Beirut, in a troubling reminder of the 1975-1990 civil war.
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A surge in jihadist violence in central Mali killed dozens of “Donso” militiamen.
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In Bangladesh, a wave of anti-Hindu violence killed seven people and heightened acrimony between the ruling party and the opposition.
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Gang-related violence and abductions peaked in and around Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince, fuelling strikes and mass protests.
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In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Republika Srpska leadership took steps to undermine federal institutions, sparking the worst political crisis in twenty years.
We also noted an improvement in Western Sahara. The appointment of Staffan de Mistura as the new UN secretary-general’s personal envoy for the region, after a two-year search, could re-energise the peace process.
Aside from the 70+ conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked notable developments in Brazil, Ecuador and Eswatini.
Our CrisisWatch Digests for Ethiopia, Lebanon and Somalia offer a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments:
Côte d’Ivoire
New political landscape taking shape amid appeasement between main political forces and mounting tensions within each camp; suspected jihadists attacked soldiers in north. In attempt to revive his political career, former President Gbagbo 17 Oct launched African People’s Party - Côte d’Ivoire (PPA-CI), vowed to “continue politics until his death”; new party’s pan-African ambition contrasts with Gbagbo’s previous ethno-nationalist discourses. Representatives of both President Ouattara’s Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) and opposition heavyweight Henri Konan Bédié’s Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI) attended PPA-CI’s constitutive congress. Gbagbo late Oct named close allies as PPA-CI’s executive president and sec gen. Pascal Affi N’Guessan, leader of Gbagbo’s former party Ivorian Popular Front, 18 Oct announced his candidacy for 2025 presidential election. Meanwhile, Bédié same day said he would reshuffle PDCI’s executive secretariat to “modernise” party; move comes after PDCI Executive Secretary Jean-Louis Billon in Sept announced his presidential candidacy. Amid tensions within presidential camp, notably between PM Patrick Achi and National Assembly First Deputy Speaker Adama Bictogo, Ouattara 15 October summoned senior party officials to discuss RHDP’s management; Ouattara reportedly plans to reshuffle party, a move that could curb Bictogo’s powers in favour of Achi, who has emerged as one of his potential successors. Meanwhile, unidentified assailants 13 Oct raided military checkpoint in Duékoué department (west), killing two. Suspected jihadists 19 Oct targeted military post in Téhini department (north near border with Burkina Faso), wounding two soldiers; one assailant also killed.
Guinea
Junta leader sworn in as transition’s president and civilian PM appointed. Mamady Doumbouya, leader of military junta that overthrew President Condé in Sept, sworn in 1 Oct as president of transition; in inaugural speech, Doumbouya committed to “reforming the Guinean state”, “fighting corruption” and holding “free, credible and transparent elections” to pave way for return to civilian rule; transitional period’s duration however remains unknown. No head of states from regional body Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) attended inauguration ceremony. Doumbouya 6 Oct appointed civilian Mohamed Béavogui as PM; choice of political newcomer with roots in both central and southern Guinea could help overcome population’s defiance toward politicians and transcend deep-rooted ethno-regional cleavages, but Béavogui’s lack of political clout could hinder his ability to carry out reforms. In move to consolidate his control over armed forces, Doumbouya 12 Oct removed 42 army generals, including some close associates of Condé, and filled in strategic military positions with allies, notably appointing junta’s second-in-command Col Sadiba Koulibaly, as armed forces chief of staff. Meanwhile, in first worrying signs for press freedom since coup, authorities 8 Oct reportedly prevented several privately-owned TV channels from covering Béavogui’s inauguration as PM and special forces that ousted Condé 9 Oct raided private media outlet Djoma Média, allegedly to look for missing state-owned vehicles, leaving two injured including security guard. Union of Private Press Professionals of Guinea 12 Oct accused junta of attempting to “stifle” media. ECOWAS delegation 28 Oct arrived in capital Conakry for third visit since Sept coup.