CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month July 2015

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month June 2015

Deteriorated Situations

Improved Situations

Extremist violence again dominated the month, with deadly attacks hitting Tunisia, Kuwait and Chad, while in Afghanistan the Taliban made further territorial gains and launched an unprecedented number of attacks. Burundi’s political crisis deepened as its ruling party held parliamentary elections despite widespread domestic and international objections. A rejection of Myanmar’s Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) text by armed group leaders threatened to halt progress on the country’s peace process for the coming year. Nepal, meanwhile, made a significant step forward in its long-delayed constitution drafting process, a major part of its 2006 peace deal.

CrisisWatch Digests

In Afghanistan the Taliban captured and maintained control of district administration centres in northern Afghanistan for the first time since the beginning of the insurgency. The losses increase military pressure on government positions near Kunduz city, and underscore the intensity of the 2015 fighting season, in which the number of violent incidents has surpassed all records since 2001. Crisis Group’s new report urged the Afghan government, faced with the rising insurgency, to avoid cheap and dangerous fixes such as expanding the Afghan Local Police (ALP) and pro-government militias to address rural insecurity. Instead, rogue elements within the ALP should be disarmed and disbanded, while effective units should be integrated into the regular security forces and be subjected to strengthened oversight.

Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL) claimed responsibility for two high profile terrorist attacks on 26 June: in Tunisia, where 38 tourists were killed in an attack on a hotel in a resort on the east coast, and in Kuwait, where a Shiite mosque was targeted by a suicide bomber leaving 27 dead and over 200 injured. Crisis Group’s reporting on Tunisia has long warned about the risks posed by the intermingling of criminality and jihadi groups, notably in urban peripheries and border areas neglected by the state. The recent attack makes it all the more urgent that Tunisia’s government ensures professionalisation of the security forces and avoids politicisation of their management, and steers clear of discourse and measures that could renew political and social polarisation.

Chad’s capital N’Djamena suffered its first terror attack in years when on 15 June suspected Boko Haram assailants detonated suicide bombs, killing at least 30. Burundi continued to teeter on the brink of civil war as the ruling party pushed ahead with parliamentary elections on 29 June despite an opposition boycott and calls for a delay from the international community. As the country prepares for presidential polls on 15 July, Crisis Group has stressed the need for swift measures to restore the political and security conditions necessary for peaceful and fair elections, and to avoid the country’s further descent into violent conflict.

In Myanmar, a summit of ethnic armed group leaders rejected the NCA text agreed in March, making it almost certain that the agreement will not be signed before the country goes to elections later this year. This makes it highly unlikely that there will be further progress on talks to end the decades-long conflict for the next twelve months, and increases the risk of armed conflict over the coming year. It also means more a