CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month December 2023

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month November 2023

Improved Situations

Conflict in Focus

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights six conflict risks in December.

  • After efforts to extend a Qatar-brokered truce faltered, Israel resumed its onslaught in southern Gaza. The majority of the enclave’s nearly 2 million people are now in the south, many having fled Israel’s military campaign in the north. Already hundreds of Palestinians have died in the past few days of bombardments, adding to the 15,000 plus killed before the truce. Further massive killing and displacement seem almost inevitable. 
     
  • In Lebanon, deadly border clashes between Hizbollah and Israel expanded in scale and scope, further heightening the risk of full-scale war in the coming weeks.
     
  • Election-related violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo could erupt around the 20 December vote amid widespread distrust in the process and fighting in the eastern province of North Kivu, where M23 rebels continue their advance (see this month’s Conflict in Focus).
     
  • In Sudan, the Rapid Support Forces continued their multi-pronged offensive, leaving a trail of alleged atrocities in Darfur where the risk of all-out ethnic conflict remains, especially as more armed groups could be drawn in.
     
  • The military in Myanmar may step up its brutal response, including indiscriminate bombings, as it faces its most significant battlefield challenges since the February 2021 coup with ethnic armed groups launching attacks on multiple fronts.
     
  • Fears rose in Guatemala that President-elect Bernardo Arévalo could face more judicial persecution, including removal of his immunity or even an arrest, that would in turn fuel mass protests and unrest in December. 

CrisisWatch identified ten deteriorated situations in November. Notably:

  • Political tensions escalated in Madagascar as the opposition rejected incumbent President Rajoelina’s re-election after boycotting the presidential election amid a crackdown on protests.
     
  • Armed men in Sierra Leone attacked the main military barracks and prison in the capital Freetown; the government denounced a coup attempt.

CrisisWatch also assessed one improved situation in November. In the Philippines, the government and communist rebels struck a deal to restart peace talks after a six-year hiatus. 

Aside from the scores of conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked significant developments in the Dominican Republic, Gabon, Guyana, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Senegal and Togo.

Benin

Govt forces continued to battle jihadist insurgency in country’s north.

Military early Nov conducted operations targeting suspected Al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (IS Sahel) militants around Boiffo village, Malanville commune, and Kompa town, Karimama commune (both Alibori department), with unknown casualties. Troops 9 Nov killed suspected JNIM guard near Porga town, Matéri commune, Atacora department, during counter-insurgency operation.

Côte d’Ivoire