CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month April 2021

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month March 2021

Conflict in Focus

CrisisWatch highlights deteriorations in nine countries and conflict areas in March.

  • In Mozambique, Islamist insurgents launched a major attack on the strategic port town of Palma in the far north, leaving scores dead and triggering a mass exodus.
     
  • A spate of jihadist attacks in Niger killed over 200 civilians, while authorities foiled a coup attempt ahead of President-elect Mohamed Bazoum’s inauguration on 2 April.
     
  • Mass protests continued against the military coup in Myanmar as security forces ramped up their deadly crackdown on demonstrators. More than 500 civilians have been killed since 1 February.
     
  • In Brazil, political tensions peaked as the rift deepened between President Jair Bolsonaro and the military, while the COVID-19 pandemic spiralled out of control.
     
  • The conflict escalated in Ukraine’s east as the Donbas ceasefire faced growing strains with over twenty killed.

Our monthly conflict tracker also highlights improvements in four locations in March. 

  • In a major step forward for Libya’s peace process, a unified government, the first in over seven years, received a vote of confidence and assumed power.
     
  • The ceasefire along the Line of Control which divides Pakistan and Indian-administered Kashmir held as rhetoric cooled between the sides.
     
  • Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan struck a deal to resolve longstanding border disputes.

In this month’s CrisisWatch, aside from the 70+ conflict situations we regularly follow, we have tracked notable developments in: Bolivia, Brazil, Indonesia, Jordan, Nile Waters, Northern Ireland, Paraguay, Saudi Arabia, Senegal and U.S.-Russia.

Israel/Palestine

Israeli settlers attacked Palestinians in West Bank, Palestinian factions pledged support for electoral process, and Israel’s fourth election in two years resulted in deadlock. In West Bank, Israeli settlers 10 March attacked Palestinian Saeed Alyan Awad and his family near Mitzpe Yair settlement, south of Hebron, leaving him with cracked skull and broken jaw. Israeli soldiers same day detained five Palestinian children aged eight-13 in South Hebron Hills after settlers accused them of trespassing. Israeli settlers 12 March threw stones in Palestinian neighbourhood in northern West Bank, damaging two cars. Israeli human rights group B’tselem mid-month reported 94 violent attacks by Israelis against Palestinian civilians between 21 Dec 2020 and 13 March 2021. Israel 12 March issued banning order prohibiting Palestinian Authority (PA) Governor of Jerusalem Adnan Ghaith from communicating with President Abbas and other officials. Israel’s Jerusalem municipality 17 March asked courts to reactivate demolition orders for dozens of buildings housing 1,500 Palestinians in East Jerusalem neighbourhood of Silwan. In sign of internal party rifts ahead of Palestinian summer elections, President Abbas 11 March xpelled Yasser Arafat’s nephew Nasser al-Kidwa from Fatah over his attempt to field separate list of candidates for legislative poll in May. As concern rose over uncertain outcome of legislative election, Abbas 16 March rejected request from Israel and U.S. to postpone vote. PA, Central Elections Commission and 15 Palestinian factions 16-17 March convened in Egyptian capital Cairo for second round of national dialogue; parties agreed mechanism to form new Palestinian National Council while factions affirmed support for electoral process. In Gaza, Hamas 14 March announced that Yahya Sinwar was re-elected as head of movement’s political bureau in Gaza. Israel 24 March carried out night-time airstrikes on Hamas positions in response to rocket fire. Over 10,000 Palestinian citizens of Israel 5, 12, 19 March demonstrated against police brutality and criminal gangs. Israel’s 23 March election produced no clear winner; PM Netanyahu’s bloc won 52 seats, nine short of threshold to form govt, setting stage for arduous coalition negotiations and possible fifth election. Israel 12 March conducted airstrikes in Syria (see Syria).

Lebanon

Currency slide triggered fresh wave of protests, while government formation remained stalled despite international pressure. Lebanese pound 2 March fell to low of 10,000 to $1, triggering five consecutive days of protest in response to prolonged govt inaction over economic crisis; 50 demonstrators 7 March burned tyres and protested in front of banking association in capital Beirut demanding access to deposits, while protesters in northern city Tripoli blocked roads and staged sit-in. Market dealers 16 March said Lebanese pound was trading at 15,000 to dollar, representing loss of 90% value since late 2019 financial crisis began; downturn same day triggered further protests and roadblocks in Beirut. Armed forces Commander-in-Chief Joseph Aoun 8 March affirmed people’s right to peaceful protest in meeting with military commanders, warning govt that army should not be relied upon to repress popular discontent. Meanwhile, govt formation efforts faced continued deadlock. PM-designate Saad al-Hariri 17 March met President Aoun to discuss cabinet; Hariri same day agreed to additional meeting to discuss his proposed cabinet candidates, indicating Aoun should call early presidential elections if candidates are not approved. Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah next day pledged support to new cabinet if announced, but cautioned against reliance on technocrats and specialist appointees. Hariri 22 March publicly rebuked Aoun over latter’s demands for veto powers in govt and continued rejection of proposed cabinet line-up. French diplomat 17 March reportedly indicated France and international partners were set to increase political pressure on Lebanon’s leadership in coming months; UN special coordinator for Lebanon next day urged Lebanese authorities to facilitate cabinet formation during address to UN Security Council. NGO Amnesty International 23 March published report documenting alleged abuses committed by Lebanese military intelligence against Syrian detainees, including fair trial violations and torture; prosecutor general 29 March ordered probe. NGO Human Rights Watch 30 March said security forces “forcibly disappeared and allegedly tortured” detained protesters in Tripoli.

Jordan