Tracking Conflict Worldwide
Outlook for This Month June 2004
Conflict Risk Alerts
Trends for Last Month May 2004
This month's CrisisWatch, ICG's bulletin on actual and potential conflicts around the world, identifies deteriorating situations in nine countries in May 2004 and risk alerts in three.
There is a looming humanitarian disaster, following months of ethnic cleansing, in Sudan's western region of Darfur -- notwithstanding the long-awaited signature of peace protocols by Khartoum and rebels in the south of the country: at least 1.2 million people have been displaced by government-supported militias, and hundreds of thousands of lives are at immediate risk in Darfur if determined international action is not taken at once.
Nigeria's security situation also sharply declined in May, when Christians massacred some 600 Muslims in the town of Yelwa, sparking widespread violence and the displacement of 57,000. Pakistan deteriorated; sectarian violence in Karachi killed at least 30. Lebanon saw its worst unrest in a decade, leaving five dead. Chechnya took a serious step backward with the assassination of pro-Kremlin Chechen president Akhmad Kadyrov. The situation also worsened in Chad, Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, Israel/Occupied Territories and Saudi Arabia.
Three security situations showed improvement in May 2004. Georgia welcomed the peaceful resolution of the conflict between the centre and the rogue province of Ajara. Libya's decision to ban military trade with Iran, North Korea and Syria was an encouraging step. India enjoyed a transfer of power without major incidents.
For June 2004, CrisisWatch identifies Ethiopia/Eritrea, Sudan and Venezuela as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of further conflict in the coming month. The only Conflict Resolution Opportunity identified for next month is Sudan.