CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month June 2021

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month May 2021

Improved Situations

Conflict in Focus

CrisisWatch warns of two conflict risks in June. 

  • Colombia’s Cali city is at a high risk of spiralling violence in coming weeks as anti-government protesters face an increasingly heavy security build-up and armed civilians.  
     
  • A controversial constitutional referendum in Haiti on 27 June could worsen the political crisis and fuel violent unrest. 

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights deteriorations in fourteen countries and conflict areas in May.

  • In Israel-Palestine, an eleven-day war between Israel and Gaza’s armed factions killed hundreds and sparked an unprecedented wave of unrest across Israel’s mixed cities. 
     
  • Amid rising social discontent, Mali’s military junta staged another coup, which Bamako’s main international partners immediately condemned.
     
  • In the most significant conflict escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the Autumn 2020 war, deadly border clashes broke out. 
     
  • Ahead of the 12 June legislative elections, Algeria’s authorities stepped up repression against the Hirak protest movement, quashing demonstrations and arresting scores.
     
  • Jakarta signalled a major crackdown on Papuan separatists by sending more military troops to Indonesia’s easternmost region following a series of armed attacks.

We also noted an improvement in Venezuela. President Maduro made several gestures signalling a possible willingness to negotiate with rivals, providing a rare opportunity to temper the country’s protracted political crisis.

Aside from the 70+ conflict situations we regularly assess, we also tracked notable developments in: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, the Maldives, Morocco and Peru.

Burundi

Series of grenade attacks killed at least two and wounded scores; meanwhile, AU and UN missions downscaled in-country monitoring presence. Unidentified assailants launched five grenade attacks against bus stations and public markets during rush hour in capital Bujumbura 25 May and in Muramvya city 27 May, leaving at least two dead and at least 57 injured; police killed one attacker and arrested five suspects. Govt called violence “terrorism”; motives behind attacks still unclear. In Muramvya province, unidentified armed men 9 May killed at least eight and injured five; police by next day had arrested 32 individuals, including 25 former military officers. Ntahangwa High Court 7 May sentenced former opposition MP Fabien Banciryanino to one-year imprisonment for “rebellion and attack on the internal security of the state” after criticising former President Nkurunziza’s “Supreme Guide of Patriotism”; sentence lighter than requested by prosecution. AU Peace and Security Council 7 May announced decision to shut down Human Rights Observers and Military Experts Mission in Burundi by 31 May, and to remove country from agenda citing “significant progress” in political and security situation. UN Sec-Gen Special Envoy’s Office also due to close on 31 May. In neighbouring DR Congo’s South Kivu province ruling party CNDD-FDD youth wing Imbonerakure 19 May clashed with Maï-Maï militiamen aligned with Burundian armed group RED-Tabara in Uvira territory. Rwandan govt 24 May claimed to have killed two National Liberation Front (FLN) rebels crossing the border from Burundi; Gitega denied presence of armed groups hostile to Rwanda on Burundian soil.

Cameroon

Violent attacks between govt forces and separatists continued in Anglophone regions; jihadist violence persisted in Far North. In Njikwa town, North West region (NW), armed forces 6 May burnt homes reportedly killing at least one civilian; 9 May killed separatist in Nwa subdivision; 16 May killed 14 suspected separatists in Bambalang and Tadu villages. In apparent revenge killing for IED which reportedly killed two soldiers 15 May, armed forces 18 May burnt over 50 civilian homes near Kumbo, leaving two dead. Separatists 2 May kidnapped four council workers in Kumbo and 25 May attacked Lassin security post killing five soldiers. In South West region, armed forces 11 May killed separatist commander ‘Njayoh’ in Mbonge town; 14 May killed eight suspected separatists near Buea and in Konye. Separatists 1 May executed two soldiers in Bodam village, Akwaya; 15 May attacked police station in Muea, reportedly firing rocket-propelled grenade; casualties unknown. Separatist carried out other attacks in regions, including with IEDs on 26 May with unclear casualty figures. Govt 10 May held emergency security meeting over increasing use of IEDs by separatists. Defence Minister Beti Assomo said insurgents resorting to IEDs due to dwindling numbers and firepower. Assomo said at least 24 troops and civilians killed by IEDs within first week of May. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 4 May raised Anglophone conflict with French FM Jean-Yves Le Drian at G7 Ministerial Summit in London. In Far North, Boko Haram (BH) continued to launch attacks. BH 9 May killed one civilian in Talla-Massali village, Mayo-Tsanaga division; 15 May killed two civilians in Sanda Wadjiri village, Mayo Sava division; 17 May killed one civilian in Kerawa village in Kolofata town, Mayo-Sava department. BH mid-May released gruesome execution video threatening armed forces in French, first time BH used the language in public threats. Meanwhile, armed forces 4 May killed at least six BH in Soueram village, Logone-et-Chari division, and 16 May killed four BH in Goldavi village, Mayo-Mosokota division. Unconfirmed reports surfaced suggesting BH leader Abubakar Shekau 19 May had blown himself up or was seriously wounded in attempt to kill himself to avoid capture in clash between BH and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) in north-eastern Nigeria. 

Central African Republic