Tracking Conflict Worldwide
Outlook for This Month December 2003
Conflict Risk Alerts
Trends for Last Month November 2003
Mixed month for Burundi. Positive development with largest Hutu rebel group, FDD, signing final peace agreement with government on 16 November, endorsing political, defence and security power sharing arrangements reached in earlier agreements. Government reshuffled to include four FDD leaders as ministers. But last remaining Hutu rebel group, FNL, continues fighting, shelling capital Bujumbura, and causing estimated 12,000 civilians to flee.
Central African Republic
UN agencies warned CAR could face severe food crisis in next four months, resulting from displacement of 1.5m of 3.8m population during civil war which ended in March 2003. 200,000 remain internally displaced.
Democratic Republic of Congo
Situation improving but still dangerous. In significant move, leader of Rwandan Hutu rebel group in Congo, FDLR, and over 100 followers surrendered to Rwandan officials 15 November. Remains to be seen if move leads to surrender of other FDLR leaders. DRC and Rwanda presidents met with South Africa’s President Mbeki in Pretoria 27 November and committed to repatriation of remaining Rwandan Hutus in eastern Congo to Rwanda within 12 months. UN MONUC mission to deploy more widely, with focus on Ituri province, city of Kisangani and Kivus region.
Eight ministers and senior officials from former government went on trial before International Criminal Tribunal, charged with planning genocide. President Paul Kagame met with new tribunal prosecutor, Hassan Jallow, 13 November, and pledged cooperation. U.S. relaunched $5m reward for capture of suspected leaders of genocide still at large. Surrender of Rwandan leader of Hutu rebel group in DR Congo greeted as positive step by government – hopes that other DRC-based Rwandan Hutu rebels will follow lead.
Rebel group Lords Resistance Army (LRA) continues vicious campaign in north. Over 100 civilians killed in Lira district, some beheaded, 300,000 forced to flee since August. Senior UN official claims humanitarian situation in north Uganda worst in world. President Museveni criticised foreign donors for imposing limits on military spending, hampering efforts to counter LRA.