CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month December 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month November 2017

Improved Situations

Yemen’s conflict escalated further, fuelling regional volatility and tensions. Following the launch by Huthi rebels of a ballistic missile at Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, Saudi forces increased airstrike​​s in Yemen and ​tightened ​their blockade. The missile strike came just after Saudi’s King Salman initiated mass arrests of senior figures​ on corruption charges. Egypt faced its worst terror attack and a hard-fisted response by security forces could lead to more bloodshed in December. In Africa, violence escalated in Cameroon’s Anglophone regions and Nigeria, while in Zimbabwe President Mugabe’s 37-year rule ended with a military coup. Sharply contested electoral results in Honduras triggered mass protests, while Cambodia’s opposition party was banned ahead of general elections next year. In a positive move, leaders from Moldova and its breakaway region Transdniestria made progress towards reaching a settlement.

CrisisWatch Digests

In response to the Huthis’ foiled missile attack on Riyadh on 4 November, the Saudi-led coalition stepped up its bombing campaign in Yemen in areas controlled by Huthis and supporters of former President Saleh, including the capital Sanaa. Saudi Arabia blamed Iran and Lebanese militia Hizbollah for supporting the Yemeni rebels militarily. In ​a bid to stop alleged weapons shipments to the Huthis from Iran, Saudi temporarily closed all entry ports to Yemen. ​Tightening the blockade on Huthi/Saleh-controlled territories aggravated the already severe humanitarian crisis. Fighting between Huthis and pro-Saleh forces in Sanaa late month threatened further violence in December. As we have explained, Huthi rebels view their missile program as the best ​potential deterrent ​against Saudi-led coalition airstrikes and the best bargaining chip in future negotiations. While additional gains on the ground would be costly for all sides, absent the resumption of political talks, we should expect more missiles headed towards Riyadh and​,​ sooner or later​,​ a Saudi/U.S. response, whose target could be Yemen, Iran or Hizbollah.

The Huthi attack on Riyadh coincided with​ ​a ​​major political upheaval inside Saudi Arabia, where some 200 senior political and business figures, including at least 38 former and current ministers and deputy ministers​, were arrested for alleged corruption.​ Later in the month, neighbouring Egypt suffered its worst terror attack with jihadists killin