Tracking Conflict Worldwide
Global Overview
Outlook for This Month November 2022
Conflict Risk Alerts
Resolution Opportunities
Trends for Last Month October 2022
Conflict in Focus
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Our monthly conflict tracker highlights one conflict resolution opportunity and four conflict risks in November.
- Ethiopia’s federal and Tigray leaders met in South Africa for urgent peace talks. Absent an immediate cessation of hostilities, military offensives could result in mass atrocities against Tigray’s civilians in the coming weeks.
- The postponement of Somaliland’s presidential election risks turning a months-long dispute over the electoral calendar into a wider crisis as the opposition has vowed it will not recognise incumbent President Bihi after 13 November.
- Political tensions escalated in Pakistan as former Prime Minister Imran Khan began a protest march set to reach the capital Islamabad in early November, which could lead to further violent unrest.
- In Yemen, the UN-mediated truce remained stuck in limbo after warring parties failed to agree to an extension, raising the risk of Huthi regional attacks and a return to front-line fighting.
CrisisWatch spotlighted deteriorations in seven countries in October.
- Intercommunal clashes erupted in Sudan’s Blue Nile state, killing hundreds and forcing thousands more to flee.
- In Chad, authorities violently repressed countrywide protests against the extension of the transition period to civilian rule, leaving at least 60 dead and hundreds more injured.
- Resistance forces in Myanmar staged deadly attacks on the regime, which clashed heavily with the Arakan Army in Rakhine State and Karen armed groups in the country’s south east.
- Russia stepped up its offensive in Ukraine by launching a series of strikes on cities and civilian infrastructure, which appear aimed at worsening living conditions as winter approaches.
- In Syria’s north west, Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) advance into areas under the control of Türkiye-backed groups led to deadly clashes, upsetting the fragile status quo and risking a broader escalatory cycle of violence.
We also highlighted two improvements. Lebanon and Israel signed a maritime border deal, defusing a potential flashpoint, and Iraq’s parliament elected a new president, breaking a year-long political deadlock and paving the way for a new government.
Aside from the scores of conflict situations we usually assess, we tracked notable developments in October in Benin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Djibouti, Ecuador, Moldova and Papua New Guinea.
CrisisWatch Digests
Benin
Sporadic violence continued in north, and govt discussed military cooperation with commander of French Operation Barkhane.
Jihadist and other violence persisted in northern departments. In Atakora department, unidentified armed men 4 and 7 Oct reportedly kidnapped two Fulani pastoralists near Matéri and Kérou towns; al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) elements 11 Oct tried to engage govt forces and accidentally detonated explosive device near Matéri, leaving eight militants dead. In Alibori department, unidentified armed men 7 Oct killed farmer in Segbana commune, and overnight 11-12 Oct kidnapped Fulani village chief in Karimama commune.
Visit of Barkhane commander sparked controversy. New commander of French Operation Barkhane, Gen Bruno Baratz, 4-6 Oct visited Benin and met with Defence Minister Fortunet Alain Nouatin; Baratz reportedly expressed France’s willingness to support Beninese forces while ruling out French military operations on Beninese territory. Following visit, rumours of French troop presence and of alleged plans to establish French military base in country spread on social media; govt around 10 Oct denied claims.
Côte d’Ivoire
Despite reported progress, negotiations for release of Ivorian soldiers detained in Mali dragged on; former President Gbagbo loyalist announced return from exile.
President Ouattara expressed optimism over release of soldiers detained in Mali. Ouattara 6-7 Oct met in economic capital Abidjan with Togolese President Faure Gnassingbé and West African regional bloc ECOWAS President Umaro Sissoco Embaló to discuss latest ECOWAS efforts to negotiate release of 46 Ivorian soldiers detained in Mali since July; following meetings, Ouattara said “happy ending” will be reached “very soon”, but negotiations continued to drag on. Stumbling blocks reportedly include location for soldiers’ release, with Mali insisting on Bamako while Côte d’Ivoire prefers Togo’s capital Lomé. Ouattara and Embaló 7 Oct also discussed regional security issues as Abidjan sustains efforts to contain jihadist threat in country’s north.
Former President Gbagbo’s right-hand man vowed to return home. Former Youth Minister under Gbagbo, Charles Blé Goudé, 24 Oct announced he had received Ouattara’s approval to return home from Netherlands on 26 Nov, vowed to take part in Ouattara-sponsored reconciliation process. Blé Goudé, who was acquitted by International Criminal Court in March 2021 on charges of crimes against humanity, still faces 20-year sentence in Côte d’Ivoire for role in 2010-2011 post-election crisis. Ouattara’s move could form part of attempt to divide left-wing opposition ahead of 2023 regional and 2025 presidential elections, as Blé Goudé’s relations with Gbagbo have been tense in recent years.
Opposition heavyweights continued manoeuvring with eye on 2025 presidential election. After faction of Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI) 29 Sept proposed long-time party leader Henri Konan Bédié as sole candidate for party leadership, PDCI’s young wing in following days expressed opposition, denouncing lack of internal democracy. Meanwhile, African People’s Party-Côte d’Ivoire’s general secretary, Damana Adia Médard aka Pickass, 17 Oct said Laurent Gbagbo was party’s “natural candidate” for presidential election.