CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

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CrisisWatch is our early warning and global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month September 2023

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month August 2023

Improved Situations

Conflict in Focus

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights two conflict risk alerts in September.

  • Significant clashes broke out in Mali’s north between government forces and former rebels for the first time since the 2015 peace agreement. September could see more violence and the collapse of the peace process as the UN mission’s withdrawal continues.
     
  • The West African regional bloc ECOWAS continued to threaten the use of force in Niger to restore constitutional order following the coup in July. An intervention could trigger major pushback and put Niger and the wider region at risk of war.

CrisisWatch identified eleven deteriorated situations in August. Notably:

  • Military officers seized power from President Ali Bongo in Gabon moments after authorities announced his re-election for a third term.
     
  • In Syria, a major battle broke out between the regime and the northwest’s dominant rebel group Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham as Russia renewed airstrikes, while the Islamic State killed dozens as it stepped up attacks in the country’s centre.
     
  • President Lasso declared a nationwide state of emergency in Ecuador following a spate of political assassinations in the lead-up to the presidential election.
     
  • In Cyprus, violent skirmishes between Turkish Cypriots and UN personnel in the buffer zone injured multiple peacekeepers and Turkish Cypriot police officers and sparked a strong diplomatic rebuke. 

Our tracker also assessed two improved situations.

  • The Colombian government’s landmark ceasefire with the National Liberation Army guerrilla group took effect, marking an important step forward in President Petro’s “total peace” efforts.
     
  • Guatemala’s presidential election went ahead despite judicial and other interference, resulting in a landslide victory for centre-left candidate Bernardo Arévalo endorsed by the outgoing president.

Aside from the scores of conflict situations we usually cover, we tracked significant developments in Bahrain, Nile Waters and Senegal

Latest Updates

Africa

Mozambique

Insurgent activity against govt forces remained high in Macomia district in northern Cabo Delgado province; authorities postponed district elections.

Macomia district continued to be hotspot of Cabo Delgado conflict. Suspected Islamic State Mozambique Province (ISMP) fighters 1 Aug killed nine soldiers near Ilala village; Southern African Development Community Mission to Mozambique (SAMIM) patrol hours later engaged insurgent cell, causing unknown number of casualties. ISMP militants 5-8 Aug killed at least seven soldiers in clashes near Catupa forest, and 22 Aug ambushed govt and SAMIM forces convoy travelling to Quiterajo village, killing nine. Army 23-25 Aug announced killing three senior ISMP executives, including commander of operations in Cabo Delgado, in Macomia forests; report is yet to be confirmed by Rwanda and SAMIM. Meanwhile, ISMP cells pursued hearts and minds strategy in some coastal areas, with militants 3 Aug buying goods and food from residents in Pangane (Macomia) and Marere (Mocímboa da Praia district) villages.

Reports of indiscipline within security forces in Cabo Delgado continued to emerge. Rwandan soldiers 1 Aug reportedly intervened after police beat local in Mocímboa da Praia town. Meanwhile, significant number of police officers and soldiers in Aug reportedly had salaries delayed for second month; delays in salary payments could add to indiscipline within security forces, creating additional hurdle in counter-insurgency efforts.

President Nyusi visit to Cabo Delgado overshadowed by postponed elections. As Nyusi visited Palma town and his home district Mueda, National Assembly 3 Aug approved indefinite postponement of district elections initially scheduled for 2024, due to financial and security constraints. Main opposition party RENAMO said decision threatens democracy and will allow ruling party to entrench hold on power. Meanwhile, mayor of Nampula city and RENAMO party member Paulo Vahanle alleged police officer 22 Aug attempted to kill him; RENAMO 26 Aug threatened to “bring country to a halt” in case of attacks on party members.

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