Our monthly conflict tracker highlights six conflict risks in December.

• After efforts to extend a Qatar-brokered truce faltered, Israel resumed its onslaught in southern Gaza. The majority of the enclave’s nearly 2 million people are now in the south, many having fled Israel’s military campaign in the north. Already hundreds of Palestinians have died in the past few days of bombardments, adding to the 15,000 plus killed before the truce. Further massive killing and displacement seem almost inevitable. 
   
• In Lebanon, deadly border clashes between Hizbollah and Israel expanded in scale and scope, further heightening the risk of full-scale war in the coming weeks.
   
• Election-related violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo could erupt around the 20 December vote amid widespread distrust in the process and fighting in the eastern province of North Kivu, where M23 rebels continue their advance (see this month’s Conflict in Focus).
   
• In Sudan, the Rapid Support Forces continued their multi-pronged offensive, leaving a trail of alleged atrocities in Darfur where the risk of all-out ethnic conflict remains, especially as more armed groups could be drawn in.
   
• The military in Myanmar may step up its brutal response, including indiscriminate bombings, as it faces its most significant battlefield challenges since the February 2021 coup with ethnic armed groups launching attacks on multiple fronts.
   
• Fears rose in Guatemala that President-elect Bernardo Arévalo could face more judicial persecution, including removal of his immunity or even an arrest, that would in turn fuel mass protests and unrest in December. 

CrisisWatch identified ten deteriorated situations in November. Notably:

• Political tensions escalated in Madagascar as the opposition rejected incumbent President Rajoelina’s re-election after boycotting the presidential election amid a crackdown on protests.
   
• Armed men in Sierra Leone attacked the main military barracks and prison in the capital Freetown; the government denounced a coup attempt.

CrisisWatch also assessed one improved situation in November. In the Philippines, the government and communist rebels struck a deal to restart peace talks after a six-year hiatus. 

Aside from the scores of conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked significant developments in the Dominican Republic, Gabon, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Senegal and Togo.