CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month March 2024

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month February 2024

Improved Situations

Conflict in Focus

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights three conflict risks amid a chance to reach a ceasefire in Gaza in March.

  • Israel killed thousands more Palestinians in Gaza – bringing the death toll since 7 October to over 30,000 – and continued to restrict aid, which could plunge over half a million into famine. Israel threatened an all-out attack on Rafah in March, which could kill or again displace a huge proportion of the 1.5 million people seeking refuge there unless a ceasefire currently under negotiation can avert the offensive.
     
  • The start of Ramadan in March could see rising tensions in the West Bank, and beyond. In particular, should Israel impose restrictions on Muslim worshippers’ access at Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa complex, it could fuel violence by Hizbollah or Palestinian armed groups in Lebanon, increasing the risk of full-scale war.
     
  • Undeterred by the U.S.-UK bombing campaign, the Houthis in Yemen launched near-daily attacks on international shipping in adjacent waters and may further expand their targets. The military build-up along various frontlines could portend a new Houthi offensive against government forces.
     

CrisisWatch identified thirteen deteriorations in February. Notably:

  • Ukraine’s forces withdrew from the embattled town of Avdiivka in Donetsk region after months of heavy Russian bombardment. The retreat marked a significant setback for Kyiv as its forces felt the sting of waning U.S. support and momentum swung toward Moscow (see this month’s Conflict in Focus).
     
  • Security forces in Chad killed Yaya Dillo, a staunch opponent and cousin of transitional President Deby, during a shootout in the capital N’Djamena. The incident laid bare major cracks within the ruling elite ahead of the May presidential election.
     
  • In DR Congo, M23 rebels advanced on the strategic town of Sake in North Kivu province amid fierce fighting with the army and allied forces, forcing hundreds of thousands to flee.
     
  • A constitutional crisis erupted in Senegal after authorities postponed the presidential election, triggering violent protests and international alarm.
     
  • Disputed results following Pakistan’s 8 February national elections triggered protests and deepened the country’s political crisis, as a surge in militant attacks in the provinces bordering Afghanistan killed dozens. 
     
  • Violent protests erupted across Haiti calling for acting Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s resignation, as gang violence, both between rival outfits and against the government, wreaked havoc in the capital Port-au-Prince.
     

Aside from the scores of conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked significant developments in Moldova, Papua New Guinea, Senegal and South Africa.

Latest Updates

Asia

Philippines

Peace process remained on track in south amid low-level violence, while govt forces continued to clash with Communist rebels. 

Insecurity persisted in Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). Peace process remained on track as govt and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) peace delegations 10 Feb met for first time since Aug 2023, but no major agreement on vital issues was reached; sides, however, committed to continuation of peace process and general agreement on compensation packages for demobilised guerrilla fighters. Meanwhile, in Lanao del Norte province, military operation 19 Feb left state soldiers and three suspected Maute Group/Daulah Islamiyah militants dead in Munai municipality. Authorities 15 Feb arrested 32-year-old woman, suspected of facilitating transfer of funds to Islamic State (ISIS), in Sulu province. 

Clashes continued between Communist rebels and military. Fighting between govt forces and Communists in Luzon Island (Camarines), Mindanao Island (Misamis and Surigao) and Visayas Islands (Leyte and Negros) killed at least nineteen combatants and civilians, and injured at least seven, in Feb. After govt and communist group New People’s Army struck agreement in Norway to restart talks, both sides continued constituting panels to launch dialogue.

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