CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

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CrisisWatch is our early warning and global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month September 2023

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month August 2023

Improved Situations

Conflict in Focus

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights two conflict risk alerts in September.

  • Significant clashes broke out in Mali’s north between government forces and former rebels for the first time since the 2015 peace agreement. September could see more violence and the collapse of the peace process as the UN mission’s withdrawal continues.
     
  • The West African regional bloc ECOWAS continued to threaten the use of force in Niger to restore constitutional order following the coup in July. An intervention could trigger major pushback and put Niger and the wider region at risk of war.

CrisisWatch identified eleven deteriorated situations in August. Notably:

  • Military officers seized power from President Ali Bongo in Gabon moments after authorities announced his re-election for a third term.
     
  • In Syria, a major battle broke out between the regime and the northwest’s dominant rebel group Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham as Russia renewed airstrikes, while the Islamic State killed dozens as it stepped up attacks in the country’s centre.
     
  • President Lasso declared a nationwide state of emergency in Ecuador following a spate of political assassinations in the lead-up to the presidential election.
     
  • In Cyprus, violent skirmishes between Turkish Cypriots and UN personnel in the buffer zone injured multiple peacekeepers and Turkish Cypriot police officers and sparked a strong diplomatic rebuke. 

Our tracker also assessed two improved situations.

  • The Colombian government’s landmark ceasefire with the National Liberation Army guerrilla group took effect, marking an important step forward in President Petro’s “total peace” efforts.
     
  • Guatemala’s presidential election went ahead despite judicial and other interference, resulting in a landslide victory for centre-left candidate Bernardo Arévalo endorsed by the outgoing president.

Aside from the scores of conflict situations we usually cover, we tracked significant developments in Bahrain, Nile Waters and Senegal

Latest Updates

Asia

Thailand

Parliament appointed PM from opposition Pheu Thai after forging coalition with pro-military parties, raising prospect of protests and unstable coalition; insecurity persisted in deep south.

Pheu Thai joined forces with establishment parties to form next govt. Pheu Thai, which came second in May elections, 2 Aug abandoned eight-party coalition led by election winners Move Forward Party, citing latter’s promise to amend lèse-majesté law; Pheu Thai nominated real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin as its candidate for PM. Pheu Thai 21 Aug announced it had formed 11-party coalition comprising pro-military parties, which essentially pairs party with same pro-military coalition that was rejected in May polls, breaking Pheu Thai’s election promise not to join forces with 2014 coup plotters. Joint sitting of parliament 22 Aug appointed Srettha as PM, ending months of jockeying; all signs, however, point toward unstable coalition hobbled by mutual mistrust, as well as possible street protests by disaffected voters.

Authorities arrested self-exiled former PM upon his return. Pheu Thai de facto leader Thaksin Shinawatra 22 Aug returned to Thailand after 15 years in self-imposed exile to escape abuse of power trials following 2006 coup that deposed his govt. Arrested upon arrival, Thaksin appeared at Supreme Court before being taken to Bangkok Remand Prison to begin eight-year sentence for three convictions; local media late Aug reported Thaksin applied for royal pardon.

Southernmost provinces witnessed slight uptick in attacks. In Narathiwat province, motorcycle-borne gunmen 3 Aug killed Muslim man in Cho Ai Rong district. Motorcycle-borne assailants 7 Aug attacked eight-strong army patrol in Tak Bai district with pipe bombs and small arms, killing soldier. IED attack 17 Aug killed ranger in Si Sakhon district. Gunmen 19 Aug killed off-duty paramilitary ranger in Chanae district. Militants strung banners in Bacho, Cho Ai Rong, Rangae, and Yi Ngo districts with message, “Is there lasting peace?”. In Pattani province, IED attack on military truck 3 Aug killed soldier and wounded five others in Yaring district; gunmen next day killed retired army colonel in Yaring. Combined army, police and defence volunteer force 16 Aug surrounded suspected insurgents in Nongchik district, ensuing gunfight killed two suspects. Gunmen 27 Aug killed former village headman in Saiburi district.

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