Tracking Conflict Worldwide

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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations ("standby monitoring") to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month November 2023

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month October 2023

Improved Situations

Conflict in Focus

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights five conflict risk alerts and one resolution opportunity related to the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war on 7 October following Hamas’s unprecedented attacks (see this month’s Conflict in Focus).

  • In Israel-Palestine, Israel’s bombardment and ground operations could raze Gaza, kill thousands more Palestinians and compound the humanitarian catastrophe facing 2.3 million people. Qatari mediation offers a slim hope for talks.
  • Israel’s Gaza campaign also risks igniting a regional conflagration. Deadly border clashes between Hizbollah and Israeli forces, which have killed dozens of militants and several Israeli soldiers, could open another front in Lebanon.
  • The U.S. said dozens of attacks targeted its forces in Syria and Iraq. Iran-backed armed groups in both countries could escalate such strikes, as well as cross-border attacks into Israel from Syria.
  • The Houthis in Yemen launched long-range missile and drone attacks targeting Israel and vowed more such strikes, which could further expand the Israel-Hamas war.

We also spotlight five other alerts in November in Africa and Asia. Notably:

  • Military authorities could launch an offensive in northern Mali in the coming days or weeks to take control of the town of Kidal, a stronghold of the 2015 peace deal signatories.
  • The Rapid Support Forces captured Sudan’s South Darfur state, marking a major turn in the war, and could seek to push forward in Darfur and Kordofan in the coming weeks.
  • Election-related tensions grew further in Somalia’s Puntland state, raising the prospect of an armed confrontation between rival security forces in the lead-up to the polls planned for early 2024.
  • In Myanmar, an ethnic Kokang armed group, alongside its allies, in Shan state in the north launched one of its largest offensives in years to retake lost territory, which may provoke further clashes with the regime in November.

CrisisWatch identified twelve deteriorations in October. Notably:

  • Large-scale fighting between M23 rebels and government forces resumed in DR Congo’s North Kivu after six months of precarious calm, fuelling tensions with Rwanda. Meanwhile, the political climate remained heated ahead of the December elections.
  • The ruling Awami League in Bangladesh intensified repression of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) ahead of the January 2024 elections, as clashes between opposition supporters and the police turned deadly.
  • Our tracker also assessed two improved situations. In Colombia, the government struck a ceasefire agreement with a Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissident faction, while in Venezuela, the government and the opposition reached a deal to improve electoral conditions ahead of 2024 polls, leading to substantial U.S. sanctions relief.

Aside from the scores of conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked significant developments in Benin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Gabon, Guatemala, Jordan, Lesotho, Madagascar, Moldova, Nile Waters and Togo.

Latest Updates

Latin America & Caribbean


In crucial step toward competitive presidential poll, govt and opposition reached deal to improve electoral conditions, leading to substantial U.S. sanctions relief.

Govt and opposition struck deal to improve electoral conditions. Maduro govt and group of opposition parties known as Unitary Platform reached agreement in Barbados on minimum conditions for 2024 presidential poll. Notably, agreement fixes vote for unspecified date in second half of 2024, includes update of electoral registry and commits govt-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) to invite international ‘technical’ observation missions including from EU, UN and AU. Text says parties will promote “authorisation” of all candidates and political parties as long as they “meet requirements to participate in the presidential elections”; govt’s chief negotiator Jorge Rodríguez immediately interpreted clause as stating banned candidates cannot run, which would rule out opposition candidate (see below).

Washington provided ample sanctions relief. Welcoming agreement, U.S. 18 Oct issued broad authorisation of transactions involving Venezuela’s oil, gas and gold sectors, and removed ban on secondary trading of certain Venezuelan sovereign bonds, as well as debt and equity issued by state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela oil company. License lifting sanctions on oil and gas sector issued for six months, with Washington promising to renew it if Caracas complies with electoral agreement and releases U.S. and Venezuelan prisoners. Govt same day released five political prisoners.

María Corina Machado won opposition primary, govt later suspended results. Opposition 22 Oct held primary to select candidate for presidential election. Hardline politician María Corina Machado, currently banned from running for office, won overwhelmingly with 93% of vote after several prominent candidates pulled out of race in weeks before. Turnout was greater than expected, lending legitimacy to Machado’s candidacy for presidential election. Govt officials, however, alleged primary had been fraudulent and 24 Oct said opposition had inflated voter turnout; Attorney General Tarek William Saab next day announced criminal investigation into primary’s organisers. Govt-controlled Supreme Court 30 Oct suspended results of primary and ordered organisers to hand over all materials related to process; U.S. same day warned it would take action if govt fails to uphold commitments under electoral roadmap.

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