CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month February 2023

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month January 2023

Improved Situations

CrisisWatch warns of one conflict risk alert in February.

  • Hundreds of Sudan-based rebels entered the Central African Republic, fuelling fears of large-scale fighting and regional destabilisation. 

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights eight deteriorations in January.

  • A Canadian peace initiative to end the brutal conflict between Cameroon’s government and several Anglophone separatist groups suffered setbacks as Yaoundé denied giving any country a mandate to facilitate negotiations.
     
  • Already high tensions between Rwanda and DR Congo ratcheted up after the Rwandan military shot at a Congolese fighter jet they say violated Rwandan airspace.
     
  • In Pakistan, a suicide bombing claimed by the Pakistani Taliban killed scores in Peshawar city, as the group continued high-frequency attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
     
  • Days after Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva’s inauguration as Brazil’s president, supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed government buildings in the country’s capital, demanding a military coup to reinstate him to power.
     
  • Deadly violence escalated in Israel-Palestine as Israeli forces killed dozens of Palestinians in the West Bank and a Palestinian shooter killed seven Israelis in Jerusalem.

We also assess an improved situation in Ethiopia, where the Tigray People’s Liberation Front began surrendering heavy weapons to federal forces, fulfilling a key clause of the November peace deal. Within days, Eritrea withdrew its troops from most major cities in Tigray. 

Aside from the dozens of conflict situations we usually assess, we tracked notable developments in January in Benin, Bolivia, Brazil, Eswatini, Peru, Rwanda and Togo

CrisisWatch Digests

Our CrisisWatch Digests offer a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments.

For our most recent CrisisWatch Digests, please follow these links for EthiopiaLebanon and Somalia.

Latest Updates

Latin America & Caribbean

Venezuela

Opposition selected new parliamentary leadership, Mexico talks between govt and opposition stalled, and protests over low wages erupted across country.

Opposition elected new parliamentary leadership, exposing deep internal cleavages. After mainstream opposition late Dec dissolved so-called “interim presidency” of Juan Guaidó, opposition-led National Assembly 5 Jan voted for new leadership, comprising three women, including incoming head Dinorah Figuera from Justice First (PJ) party. All three are in exile and represent so-called “G3” – three largest parties in opposition alliance Unitary Platform – which are increasingly at odds with Popular Will (VP), Guaidó’s party. Exiled VP leader Leopoldo López 12 Jan accused several leading G3 politicians in Unitary Platform delegation to Nov Mexico City dialogue of allying with President Maduro, claiming delegation was “infiltrated”. In same briefing, López blamed PJ’s Julio Borges for failure of 2019 coup attempt, triggering prosecutors 16 Jan to issue arrest warrant for Borges. Meanwhile, opposition-led National Assembly 19 Jan named five-person executive committee to manage Venezuelan assets held abroad.

Efforts to schedule next round of Mexico talks stalled over frozen assets. Maduro govt refused to agree to schedule second meeting of renewed Mexico City talks with Unitary Platform until U.S. unfreezes funds promised under Nov agreement. Unitary Platform delegation 13 Jan met U.S. Assistant Sec State Brian Nichols in U.S. capital Washington DC to resolve issue, but returned without apparent progress. Maduro’s chief negotiator and National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez 17 Jan said there was “no reason to continue a dialogue with people who don’t keep their word”.

Fresh wave of labour unrest erupted. Demonstrations occurred throughout month as public sector wages sank further in real terms, fuelled by substantial devaluation of bolívar currency. Teachers 9 Jan began nationwide protests over wages and conditions, prompting govt-backed armed civilian groups known as colectivos in Aragua state 14 Jan to threaten consequences; National Guard 19 Jan reportedly warned protesting teachers they could face reprisals by colectivos. Union representatives at state-owned Sidor steel plant in Bolívar state said authorities 9-12 Jan arrested at least 12 workers amid labour unrest. Public sector workers 23 Jan marched in cities across country, including Maracaibo (Zulia state) and Valencia (Carabobo state).

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