Tracking Conflict Worldwide

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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations ("standbys") to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month November 2023

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month October 2023

Improved Situations

Conflict in Focus

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights five conflict risk alerts and one resolution opportunity related to the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war on 7 October following Hamas’s unprecedented attacks (see this month’s Conflict in Focus).

  • In Israel-Palestine, Israel’s bombardment and ground operations could raze Gaza, kill thousands more Palestinians and compound the humanitarian catastrophe facing 2.3 million people. Qatari mediation offers a slim hope for talks.
  • Israel’s Gaza campaign also risks igniting a regional conflagration. Deadly border clashes between Hizbollah and Israeli forces, which have killed dozens of militants and several Israeli soldiers, could open another front in Lebanon.
  • The U.S. said dozens of attacks targeted its forces in Syria and Iraq. Iran-backed armed groups in both countries could escalate such strikes, as well as cross-border attacks into Israel from Syria.
  • The Houthis in Yemen launched long-range missile and drone attacks targeting Israel and vowed more such strikes, which could further expand the Israel-Hamas war.

We also spotlight five other alerts in November in Africa and Asia. Notably:

  • Military authorities could launch an offensive in northern Mali in the coming days or weeks to take control of the town of Kidal, a stronghold of the 2015 peace deal signatories.
  • The Rapid Support Forces captured Sudan’s South Darfur state, marking a major turn in the war, and could seek to push forward in Darfur and Kordofan in the coming weeks.
  • Election-related tensions grew further in Somalia’s Puntland state, raising the prospect of an armed confrontation between rival security forces in the lead-up to the polls planned for early 2024.
  • In Myanmar, an ethnic Kokang armed group, alongside its allies, in Shan state in the north launched one of its largest offensives in years to retake lost territory, which may provoke further clashes with the regime in November.

CrisisWatch identified twelve deteriorations in October. Notably:

  • Large-scale fighting between M23 rebels and government forces resumed in DR Congo’s North Kivu after six months of precarious calm, fuelling tensions with Rwanda. Meanwhile, the political climate remained heated ahead of the December elections.
  • The ruling Awami League in Bangladesh intensified repression of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) ahead of the January 2024 elections, as clashes between opposition supporters and the police turned deadly.
  • Our tracker also assessed two improved situations. In Colombia, the government struck a ceasefire agreement with a Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissident faction, while in Venezuela, the government and the opposition reached a deal to improve electoral conditions ahead of 2024 polls, leading to substantial U.S. sanctions relief.

Aside from the scores of conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked significant developments in Benin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Gabon, Guatemala, Jordan, Lesotho, Madagascar, Moldova, Nile Waters and Togo.

Latest Updates

Middle East & North Africa


Border clashes between Hizbollah and Israeli forces killed dozens of militants and multiple Israeli soldiers; hostilities could open new front in Israel-Hamas war in coming weeks.

Lebanon faced spectre of major conflict. Following outbreak of war between Hamas and Israel on 7 Oct (see Israel-Palestine), Hizbollah repeatedly stated its willingness to militarily intervene to support its ally Hamas. Border areas witnessed pattern of near-daily clashes between group and Israeli forces that killed around 50 Hizbollah fighters and at least eight Israeli soldiers during Oct, with intensity and casualty count inching upward and geographical scope of hostilities reportedly widening late Oct. While clashes appeared to remain manageable, sides ap-peared to be merely one bloody attack – by accident or design – away from triggering escalation that spirals into all-out war, or Hizbollah may intervene to support Hamas as Israeli ground operations in Gaza get under way. Notably, Hizbollah 8 Oct launched several guided rockets into disputed Shebaa farms; Israel 9 Oct killed three Hizbollah fighters in retaliation for alleged infiltration attempt by Palestinian fighters; pair over subsequent days exchanged missiles and shelling. Hizbollah strike 11 Oct allegedly killed Israeli. Israel 17 Oct reportedly killed five Hizbollah fighters in airstrikes.

Syrian refugees faced oppressive govt measures and threats to safety. In sign of rising hostility, caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi 4 Oct claimed Syrians are responsible for 30% of crime and next day ordered authorities to crack down on Syrians without valid residency permits, close down Syrian-owned businesses operating without valid paperwork and enforce “categorical ban” on donations to support Syrian refugees. Large brawl 5 Oct erupted between Lebanese and Syrians in capital Beirut, while reports indicated bands of Lebanese roamed streets at night searching for Syrians to attack.

Presidential vacuum reached one-year anniversary amid economic crisis. No signs of progress emerged of filling presidency, which has been vacant since 1 Nov 2022, reflecting prevailing political deadlock. Economic crisis remained severe despite ongoing period of relative stability for Lebanese Lira, which may have been buoyed by substantial influx of hard currency but could soon face sharp devaluation.

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